Insights and Research

Pre-registered, hash-committed before voting. KPM-1 2.96pp vs YouGov 3.20pp, Opinium 3.20pp, Electoral Calculus 5.00pp. Honest miss on council control owned in paragraph 2. Updated 11 May with the full verifiable portfolio state: KPM-2.2 v15.1 hits 59.2% on 130 councils, by-election engine 75%, ward-level v17.10 pre-registered for 2027 county and 2028 metropolitan cycles. Every accuracy claim reproducible from github.com/Kronaxis/kpm.

The bet-able subset of the pre-registered predictions: 10 lean calls + 10 tightest toss-ups. Of the 136 contested, KPM-1's 4-seed ensemble has 10 races it'll bet on; the other 116 are too close to call. Specific, betable, falsifiable.

KPM-1's first public election stress-test. 136 councils. SHA-256 hash committed to GitHub before voting opened. 5 May 4-seed ensemble: 0 confident calls, 10 leans, 126 noted toss-ups. Council pluralities Labour 62, Reform UK 46, Liberal Democrat 15, Conservative 11, Green 2.

Traditional research takes weeks and costs thousands. Panel Studio builds synthetic consumer panels from personality science, runs multi-turn conversations, and delivers reasoning traces you can audit. Self-hosted or cloud. Comparison vs traditional panels, SurveyMonkey, and synthetic alternatives.

Reform UK is about to sweep English local government. We publish predictions for 20 councils with full methodology and validation data.

We tested synthetic persona panels against 10 real council by-elections. V9 predicted 6 of 8 winners with 7pp mean absolute error.

Full research paper: methodology, per-ward results tables, nine pipeline iterations, calibration discovery, and 20-council predictions for 7 May 2026.

Small open-weight LLMs now handle 80% of production workloads identically to frontier APIs. Auto-classify prompts, route to the cheapest capable model, validate quality in a closed loop. Full comparison vs LiteLLM, OpenRouter, Portkey, and Martian.

A UK grocery retailer ran Panel Studio alongside traditional focus groups. Same winning design. Deeper explanation. Four hundred times the speed.

Big Five measures traits. DYNAMICS-8 predicts behaviour. The gap between personality measurement and behavioural prediction, and why it matters.

Reasoning traces are worth 10 to 100 times more than plain text for model training. The scarcity is structural.

From API key to exported results in under ten minutes. Step by step with Python code examples.

Discipline predicts price resistance. Mercuriality amplifies anxiety. Impulsivity triples conversion on scarcity framing. The data behind personality driven pricing.

Six years of building in ultra competitive digital markets. The pivot that turned persona simulation into a consumer behaviour prediction platform.

Groupthink, social desirability bias, and post-hoc rationalisation. The three traps that make focus group data unreliable.

How DYNAMICS-8 country norms adjust personality expression across cultures. Same framework, different baselines, comparable results.

Two women, same age, same income, same postcode. Completely different purchase decisions. Why demographic segmentation is not enough.

The 3 pass generation pipeline, 18 rule validation engine, and census weighted demographic sampling behind every Panel Studio panel.

How to build agents that behave consistently by personality type, not generically. From prompting to training on DYNAMICS-8 traces.

A proprietary framework nobody cites is worth nothing. An open framework that becomes a standard is worth everything.

Synthetic consumer panels for startup founders. Test pricing, messaging, and positioning against personality segments before writing code.

High Discipline visitors read every feature. High Impulsivity visitors click in 8 seconds or leave. One pricing page cannot serve both.

An honest assessment of when synthetic panels are not the right tool, and the hybrid approach that cuts research costs by 80%.

The definitive explainer. What synthetic panels are, how they work, when to use them, and how they compare to traditional research methods.

Demographics explain 10-15% of purchase behaviour. Personality conditioned models explain 50-60%. The three layer prediction hierarchy.

Run full factorial conjoint through a 300 person synthetic panel. Hours not weeks. Under £200 not £50,000. Personality segmented willingness to pay.