{ "schema_version": "kronaxis-scorecard-v1", "description": "Public, append-only ledger of every Kronaxis prediction. Each row is a falsifiable claim with a hash, timestamp, methodology version, and (when available) actual outcome. Misses are reported alongside hits.", "principle": "Trust through falsifiability. We publish predictions before events with cryptographic hashes; we publish outcomes when known; we publish misses with the same prominence as hits. The methodology code is open-source and any prediction can be independently re-run and verified.", "last_updated": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "predictions": [ { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-lincoln", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Lincoln", "subject_id": "lincoln", "region": "East Midlands", "council_type": "district_councils", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Reform UK", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 2.0, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Reform UK": 25.9, "Independent": 1.0, "Green": 10.8, "Labour": 23.3, "Conservative": 24.6, "Liberal Democrat": 12.5, "The Liberal Party (Liberal Party Candidate And Local Resident)": 1.8 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-basildon", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Basildon", "subject_id": "basildon", "region": "East of England", "council_type": "district_councils", "incumbent_before": "Conservative", "predicted_winner": "Reform UK", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 9.6, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Reform UK": 34.4, "Independent": 0.8, "British Democratic Party (British Democrats)": 0.8, "Green": 13.9, "Labour": 17.1, "Conservative": 21.8, "Liberal Democrat": 11.2 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-brentwood", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Brentwood", "subject_id": "brentwood", "region": "East of England", "council_type": "district_councils", "incumbent_before": "Conservative", "predicted_winner": "Reform UK", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 1.6, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Reform UK": 27.9, "Independent": 1.1, "Green": 10.4, "Labour": 13.5, "Conservative": 25.1, "Liberal Democrat": 22.0 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-broxbourne", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Broxbourne", "subject_id": "broxbourne", "region": "East of England", "council_type": "district_councils", "incumbent_before": "Conservative", "predicted_winner": "Reform UK", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 1.6, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Reform UK": 31.1, "Green": 12.5, "TUSC": 0.7, "Labour": 16.4, "Conservative": 30.6, "Liberal Democrat": 8.7 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "Conservative", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-cambridge", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Cambridge", "subject_id": "cambridge", "region": "East of England", "council_type": "district_councils", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 2.9, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Other": 0.4, "Communist": 0.7, "Reform UK": 13.4, "Independent": 0.7, "Green": 17.0, "Labour": 14.0, "Conservative": 25.6, "Liberal Democrat": 28.2 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-colchester", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Colchester", "subject_id": "colchester", "region": "East of England", "council_type": "district_councils", "incumbent_before": "Liberal Democrat", "predicted_winner": "Reform UK", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 1.1, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Reform UK": 28.9, "Independent": 0.7, "Green": 12.0, "Labour": 11.5, "Conservative": 25.4, "Liberal Democrat": 21.4 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-epping-forest", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Epping Forest", "subject_id": "epping-forest", "region": "East of England", "council_type": "district_councils", "incumbent_before": "Conservative", "predicted_winner": "Reform UK", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 2.8, "vote_shares_predicted": { "English Democrats": 0.6, "Reform UK": 30.1, "Independent": 0.6, "Green": 13.0, "TUSC": 0.6, "Labour": 9.3, "Conservative": 30.9, "Liberal Democrat": 14.8 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-essex", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Essex", "subject_id": "essex", "region": "East of England", "council_type": "county_councils", "incumbent_before": "Conservative", "predicted_winner": "Reform UK", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 1.6, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Independent": 0.6, "English Democrats": 0.6, "Advance UK": 0.6, "Residents for Uttlesford": 0.6, "Reform UK": 31.2, "Labour": 8.3, "Conservative": 30.7, "South Woodham Ferrers Residents Party": 0.6, "Liberal Democrat": 13.1, "TUSC": 0.6, "Green": 12.5, "Rochford District Residents": 0.6 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "Reform UK", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-harlow", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Harlow", "subject_id": "harlow", "region": "East of England", "council_type": "district_councils", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Reform UK", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 1.6, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Reform UK": 31.0, "Independent": 0.7, "Green": 12.4, "TUSC": 0.7, "Labour": 15.1, "Conservative": 30.5, "Liberal Democrat": 9.6 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "Conservative", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-huntingdonshire", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Huntingdonshire", "subject_id": "huntingdonshire", "region": "East of England", "council_type": "district_councils", "incumbent_before": "Conservative", "predicted_winner": "Reform UK", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 0.5, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Independent": 0.6, "Party Of Women": 0.6, "Animal Welfare": 0.6, "Reform UK": 29.5, "Labour": 9.0, "Conservative": 27.7, "Liberal Democrat": 19.4, "Green": 12.6 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-ipswich", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Ipswich", "subject_id": "ipswich", "region": "East of England", "council_type": "district_councils", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Reform UK", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 2.7, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Reform UK": 32.8, "Labour": 26.1, "Conservative": 20.9, "Liberal Democrat": 9.1, "Green": 11.2 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-norfolk", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Norfolk", "subject_id": "norfolk", "region": "East of England", "council_type": "county_councils", "incumbent_before": "Conservative", "predicted_winner": "Conservative", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 2.3, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Independent": 0.6, "The Official Monster Raving Loony Party (Official Monster Raving Loony Party)": 0.6, "Heritage": 0.6, "Great Yarmouth First": 0.6, "Reform UK": 31.8, "Labour": 9.5, "Communist": 0.6, "Conservative": 32.0, "Liberal Democrat": 10.9, "Green": 12.7 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-norwich", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Norwich", "subject_id": "norwich", "region": "East of England", "council_type": "district_councils", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 4.0, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Communist": 0.6, "Reform UK": 22.4, "Green": 15.5, "Labour": 25.7, "Conservative": 20.8, "Liberal Democrat": 14.3, "British Democratic Party": 0.6 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "Green", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-peterborough", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Peterborough", "subject_id": "peterborough", "region": "East of England", "council_type": "unitary_authorities", "incumbent_before": "Conservative", "predicted_winner": "Reform UK", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 2.5, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Independent": 0.7, "Other": 0.3, "Your Party": 0.7, "Reform UK": 29.8, "Labour": 13.8, "Conservative": 26.2, "Liberal Democrat": 13.9, "TUSC": 0.7, "Green": 13.9 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-rochford", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Rochford", "subject_id": "rochford", "region": "East of England", "council_type": "district_councils", "incumbent_before": "Conservative", "predicted_winner": "Reform UK", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 2.2, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Reform UK": 29.3, "Independent": 0.6, "Heritage": 0.6, "Green": 12.2, "Labour": 11.0, "Conservative": 29.4, "Liberal Democrat": 16.2, "Rochford District Residents": 0.6 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-south-cambridgeshire", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "South Cambridgeshire", "subject_id": "south-cambridgeshire", "region": "East of England", "council_type": "district_councils", "incumbent_before": "Liberal Democrat", "predicted_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 2.6, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Reform UK": 24.7, "Independent": 0.7, "Green": 12.5, "Labour": 10.1, "Conservative": 26.5, "Liberal Democrat": 25.5 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-southend-on-sea", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Southend-on-Sea", "subject_id": "southend-on-sea", "region": "East of England", "council_type": "unitary_authorities", "incumbent_before": "Conservative", "predicted_winner": "Reform UK", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 1.9, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Independent": 0.6, "Liberal Democrat": 13.4, "Confelicity": 0.6, "Reform UK": 30.3, "Labour": 14.1, "Conservative": 27.3, "Heritage": 0.6, "The Moon And Serpent Party": 0.6, "Green": 12.5 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-st-albans", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "St Albans", "subject_id": "st-albans", "region": "East of England", "council_type": "district_councils", "incumbent_before": "Liberal Democrat", "predicted_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 4.0, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Independent": 0.6, "Reform UK": 23.3, "Labour": 7.3, "Communist": 0.6, "Conservative": 26.1, "Liberal Democrat": 30.4, "Green": 11.7 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-stevenage", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Stevenage", "subject_id": "stevenage", "region": "East of England", "council_type": "district_councils", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Reform UK", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 3.2, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Reform UK": 32.4, "Labour": 28.1, "Conservative": 18.0, "Liberal Democrat": 9.1, "TUSC": 0.7, "Green": 11.6 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-suffolk", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Suffolk", "subject_id": "suffolk", "region": "East of England", "council_type": "county_councils", "incumbent_before": "Conservative", "predicted_winner": "Conservative", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 3.6, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Independent": 0.6, "The Official Monster Raving Loony Party (Official Monster Raving Loony Party)": 0.6, "Reform UK": 31.0, "Labour": 10.3, "Communist": 0.6, "Conservative": 32.6, "Liberal Democrat": 11.7, "Green": 12.6 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "Reform UK", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-three-rivers", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Three Rivers", "subject_id": "three-rivers", "region": "East of England", "council_type": "district_councils", "incumbent_before": "Liberal Democrat", "predicted_winner": "Reform UK", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 3.0, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Independent": 0.7, "Other": 0.5, "Reform UK": 25.2, "Labour": 10.6, "Conservative": 24.7, "Liberal Democrat": 25.7, "TUSC": 0.7, "Green": 11.8 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-thurrock", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Thurrock", "subject_id": "thurrock", "region": "East of England", "council_type": "unitary_authorities", "incumbent_before": "Conservative", "predicted_winner": "Reform UK", "predicted_confidence": "Lean", "predicted_margin_pp": 6.9, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Reform UK": 33.8, "Independent": 0.8, "Green": 12.7, "Labour": 20.0, "Conservative": 21.7, "Liberal Democrat": 11.1 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-watford", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Watford", "subject_id": "watford", "region": "East of England", "council_type": "district_councils", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Reform UK", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 2.0, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Other": 1.3, "Reform UK": 27.5, "Heritage": 0.6, "Green": 11.0, "TUSC": 0.6, "Labour": 13.1, "Conservative": 23.8, "Liberal Democrat": 22.0 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-welwyn-hatfield", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Welwyn Hatfield", "subject_id": "welwyn-hatfield", "region": "East of England", "council_type": "district_councils", "incumbent_before": "Conservative", "predicted_winner": "Reform UK", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 1.3, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Liberal Democrat": 14.2, "Reform UK": 29.8, "Labour": 13.8, "Conservative": 28.9, "Heritage": 0.7, "Green": 12.5 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-barking-and-dagenham", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Barking and Dagenham", "subject_id": "barking-and-dagenham", "region": "Greater London", "council_type": "london_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 10.1, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Independent": 0.5, "Workers Party": 0.5, "Other": 1.4, "Reform UK": 25.2, "Labour": 32.4, "Conservative": 17.8, "Christian Peoples Alliance": 0.5, "Liberal Democrat": 8.5, "Green": 13.2 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-barnet", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Barnet", "subject_id": "barnet", "region": "Greater London", "council_type": "london_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 4.3, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Other": 0.8, "Rejoin EU": 0.6, "Reform UK": 26.4, "Independent": 0.6, "Green": 13.3, "TUSC": 0.6, "Labour": 28.3, "Conservative": 20.9, "Liberal Democrat": 8.6 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-bexley", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Bexley", "subject_id": "bexley", "region": "Greater London", "council_type": "london_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Conservative", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 2.5, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Reform UK": 22.6, "Independent": 0.6, "Working for Sidcup (Working for Sidcup - Not Party HQ)": 0.6, "Green": 12.8, "TUSC": 0.6, "Labour": 25.1, "Conservative": 24.4, "Liberal Democrat": 13.2 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "Conservative", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-brent", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Brent", "subject_id": "brent", "region": "Greater London", "council_type": "london_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 8.0, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Independent": 0.6, "Workers Party": 0.6, "Other": 2.0, "Reform UK": 22.3, "Labour": 29.5, "Conservative": 20.0, "Liberal Democrat": 10.3, "UKIP": 0.6, "Green": 14.0 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-bromley", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Bromley", "subject_id": "bromley", "region": "Greater London", "council_type": "london_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Conservative", "predicted_winner": "Reform UK", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 2.7, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Independent": 0.6, "Chislehurst Matters": 0.6, "Reform UK": 27.0, "Labour": 16.8, "Better Bromley": 0.6, "Conservative": 26.7, "Liberal Democrat": 13.5, "Green": 14.2 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "Conservative", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-camden", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Camden", "subject_id": "camden", "region": "Greater London", "council_type": "london_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 11.9, "vote_shares_predicted": { "National Housing Party United Kingdom (National Housing Party Camden People First)": 1.6, "Independent": 0.6, "National Housing Party United Kingdom (National Housing Party No More Refugees)": 0.6, "Other": 0.7, "Reform UK": 19.2, "Labour": 29.8, "Camden People's Alliance": 0.6, "Conservative": 7.5, "Liberal Democrat": 18.4, "Green": 20.9 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-croydon", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Croydon", "subject_id": "croydon", "region": "Greater London", "council_type": "london_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 4.0, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Independent": 0.6, "SDP": 0.0, "Taking The Initiative Party (Taking the Initiative Party of Britain)": 0.5, "The Motoring Party": 0.0, "Reform UK": 24.3, "Labour": 27.7, "Communist": 0.0, "Conservative": 20.4, "Equality Party": 0.5, "TUSC": 0.8, "Other": 0.6, "Climate Party": 0.0, "The Christian Party Christian Peoples Alliance": 0.0, "Christian Peoples Alliance": 0.0, "Liberal Democrat": 9.9, "The Socialist Party of Great Britain (The Socialist Party (GB))": 0.0, "Chislehurst Matters": 0.0, "Green": 13.7, "Workers Party": 0.5, "Your Party": 0.5, "Better Bromley": 0.0 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-ealing", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Ealing", "subject_id": "ealing", "region": "Greater London", "council_type": "london_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 6.0, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Independent": 0.6, "Rejoin EU": 0.6, "Other": 1.9, "SDP": 0.6, "Reform UK": 23.8, "Labour": 27.8, "Conservative": 18.9, "Liberal Democrat": 10.6, "TUSC": 0.6, "Green": 14.7 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-enfield", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Enfield", "subject_id": "enfield", "region": "Greater London", "council_type": "london_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 4.6, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Independent": 0.6, "Reform UK": 24.1, "Labour": 28.0, "Haringey Socialist Alliance": 0.1, "Conservative": 18.8, "Christian Peoples Alliance": 0.6, "Liberal Democrat": 11.2, "TUSC": 1.0, "Communist League Election Campaign": 0.5, "Green": 15.1 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-greenwich", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Greenwich", "subject_id": "greenwich", "region": "Greater London", "council_type": "london_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 7.4, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Reform UK": 26.3, "Independent": 0.6, "The Official Monster Raving Loony Party": 0.6, "Green": 14.0, "Labour": 31.3, "Your Party": 0.6, "Conservative": 18.2, "Liberal Democrat": 8.3 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-hackney", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Hackney", "subject_id": "hackney", "region": "Greater London", "council_type": "london_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 13.3, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Independent": 0.6, "Reform UK": 24.7, "Labour": 35.2, "Conservative": 8.1, "Liberal Democrat": 10.9, "TUSC": 0.9, "Green": 19.6 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "Green", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-hammersmith-and-fulham", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Hammersmith and Fulham", "subject_id": "hammersmith-and-fulham", "region": "Greater London", "council_type": "london_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 6.1, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Independent": 0.6, "Reform UK": 22.7, "Labour": 27.2, "Conservative": 21.8, "Liberal Democrat": 13.4, "Green": 14.2 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-haringey", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Haringey", "subject_id": "haringey", "region": "Greater London", "council_type": "london_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 12.8, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Independent": 0.6, "Liberal Democrat": 15.8, "Reform UK": 21.7, "Labour": 32.0, "Conservative": 8.2, "Christian Peoples Alliance": 0.6, "Haringey Socialist Alliance": 0.6, "TUSC": 1.0, "Green": 19.4 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-harrow", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Harrow", "subject_id": "harrow", "region": "Greater London", "council_type": "london_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_confidence": "Lean", "predicted_margin_pp": 16.0, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Labour": 39.0, "Reform UK": 23.0, "Conservative": 17.0, "Liberal Democrat": 9.0, "Green": 7.0, "Independent": 3.0, "Other": 2.0 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "Conservative", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-havering", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Havering", "subject_id": "havering", "region": "Greater London", "council_type": "london_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Conservative", "predicted_winner": "Reform UK", "predicted_confidence": "Lean", "predicted_margin_pp": 5.4, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Reform UK": 29.7, "Conservative": 24.3, "Labour": 17.3, "Green": 10.6, "Liberal Democrat": 6.1, "Havering Residents Association": 9.5, "Independent": 1.9, "Other": 0.6 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "Reform UK", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-hillingdon", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Hillingdon", "subject_id": "hillingdon", "region": "Greater London", "council_type": "london_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Conservative", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 3.4, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Independent": 0.6, "Other": 1.6, "UKIP": 0.6, "SDP": 0.6, "Reform UK": 25.3, "Labour": 25.2, "Conservative": 25.0, "Liberal Democrat": 9.4, "TUSC": 0.6, "Green": 11.2 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "Conservative", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-hounslow", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Hounslow", "subject_id": "hounslow", "region": "Greater London", "council_type": "london_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 5.2, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Other": 2.3, "Reform UK": 23.8, "Independent": 0.6, "Green": 13.4, "TUSC": 0.6, "Labour": 27.7, "Conservative": 19.9, "Liberal Democrat": 11.7 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-islington", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Islington", "subject_id": "islington", "region": "Greater London", "council_type": "london_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 16.7, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Independent": 0.6, "National Housing Party United Kingdom (National Housing Party No More Refugees)": 0.6, "SDP": 0.6, "Reform UK": 13.8, "Labour": 34.6, "Conservative": 7.6, "Christian Peoples Alliance": 0.6, "Liberal Democrat": 18.5, "Green": 23.0 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-kensington-and-chelsea", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Kensington and Chelsea", "subject_id": "kensington-and-chelsea", "region": "Greater London", "council_type": "london_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Conservative", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 3.1, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Reform UK": 22.6, "Independent": 0.6, "Green": 10.9, "Labour": 23.6, "Conservative": 25.9, "Liberal Democrat": 16.3 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "Conservative", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-kingston-upon-thames", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Kingston upon Thames", "subject_id": "kingston-upon-thames", "region": "Greater London", "council_type": "london_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Liberal Democrat", "predicted_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 14.1, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Other": 0.7, "Reform UK": 14.6, "Independent": 0.6, "Heritage": 0.6, "Green": 14.9, "The Official Monster Raving Loony Party (Official Monster Raving Loony Party)": 0.6, "Labour": 15.2, "Conservative": 19.1, "Liberal Democrat": 33.7 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-lambeth", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Lambeth", "subject_id": "lambeth", "region": "Greater London", "council_type": "london_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 15.5, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Independent": 0.5, "SDP": 0.5, "Reform UK": 20.2, "Labour": 33.1, "Christian Peoples Alliance": 0.5, "Conservative": 7.5, "Liberal Democrat": 14.8, "The Socialist Party of Great Britain (The Socialist Party (GB))": 0.5, "TUSC": 1.2, "Green": 21.2 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-lewisham", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Lewisham", "subject_id": "lewisham", "region": "Greater London", "council_type": "london_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 15.5, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Independent": 0.5, "Your Party": 0.5, "Climate Party": 0.5, "The Motoring Party": 0.5, "Reform UK": 20.3, "Labour": 33.9, "Communist": 0.5, "Christian Peoples Alliance": 0.5, "Conservative": 7.0, "Liberal Democrat": 12.3, "TUSC": 0.5, "Green": 22.9 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "Green", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-merton", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Merton", "subject_id": "merton", "region": "Greater London", "council_type": "london_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 8.2, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Other": 9.1, "Animal Welfare": 0.6, "Reform UK": 14.6, "Independent": 9.1, "Green": 13.5, "Labour": 24.1, "Conservative": 14.9, "Liberal Democrat": 13.7, "Libertarian Party": 0.6 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-newham", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Newham", "subject_id": "newham", "region": "Greater London", "council_type": "london_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 19.7, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Other": 2.5, "Communities United Party": 0.5, "Reform UK": 24.1, "Independent": 0.5, "Green": 14.2, "TUSC": 0.8, "Workers Party": 0.5, "Labour": 42.0, "Conservative": 5.2, "Liberal Democrat": 9.1, "Christian Peoples Alliance": 0.5 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-redbridge", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Redbridge", "subject_id": "redbridge", "region": "Greater London", "council_type": "london_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 6.5, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Havering Residents Association (Havering Residents Association - Rush Green / Crowlands)": 0.3, "Havering Residents Association (Havering Residents Association - South Hornchurch)": 0.3, "Reform UK": 21.9, "Harold Wood Hill Park Residents Association": 0.3, "Hornchurch Residents Association": 0.3, "Green": 14.7, "Labour": 27.1, "Your Party": 0.0, "Havering Residents Association (Havering Residents Association - Havering - atte-Bower)": 0.3, "Christian Peoples Alliance": 0.0, "Havering Residents Association (Havering Residents Association - Marshalls/Rise Park)": 0.3, "Havering Residents Association (Havering Residents Association - Romford)": 0.3, "TUSC": 0.2, "Redbridge Trade Union Party": 0.5, "Havering Residents Association (Havering Residents Association - Squirrels Heath)": 0.3, "Havering Residents Association (Havering Residents Association - Harold Hill)": 0.3, "Havering Residents Association (Havering Residents Association - Emerson Park)": 0.3, "Independent": 0.9, "Havering Residents Association (Havering Residents Association - Beam Park)": 0.3, "Havering Residents Association (Havering Residents Association - Mawneys)": 0.3, "Conservative": 16.4, "Other": 2.3, "Communities United Party": 0.0, "Upminster and Cranham Residents Association": 0.3, "Havering Residents Association": 0.3, "Workers Party": 0.0, "Liberal Democrat": 11.5, "Havering Residents Association (Havering Residents Association - Rainham/Wennington)": 0.3 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-richmond-upon-thames", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Richmond upon Thames", "subject_id": "richmond-upon-thames", "region": "Greater London", "council_type": "london_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Liberal Democrat", "predicted_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 17.6, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Reform UK": 17.2, "Independent": 0.6, "Green": 14.2, "Labour": 13.7, "Conservative": 17.4, "Liberal Democrat": 37.0 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-southwark", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Southwark", "subject_id": "southwark", "region": "Greater London", "council_type": "london_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 12.9, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Reform UK": 23.4, "Independent": 0.6, "Green": 19.1, "Build (Build - Homes, Infrastructure, A Future)": 0.6, "Labour": 34.2, "Conservative": 7.6, "Liberal Democrat": 13.8, "Communist League Election Campaign (Communist League)": 0.6 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-sutton", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Sutton", "subject_id": "sutton", "region": "Greater London", "council_type": "london_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Liberal Democrat", "predicted_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 12.4, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Independent": 0.6, "Other": 0.5, "Reform UK": 21.4, "Labour": 12.7, "The Christian Party Christian Peoples Alliance": 0.6, "Conservative": 16.7, "Liberal Democrat": 33.0, "Green": 14.4 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-tower-hamlets", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Tower Hamlets", "subject_id": "tower-hamlets", "region": "Greater London", "council_type": "london_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 13.8, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Forward Party (The Forward Party)": 0.5, "Aspire": 0.9, "Independent": 0.5, "Other": 2.6, "Reform UK": 22.8, "Labour": 33.9, "Conservative": 6.8, "Liberal Democrat": 13.1, "TUSC": 0.9, "Green": 17.9 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" } }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-waltham-forest", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Waltham Forest", "subject_id": "waltham-forest", "region": "Greater London", "council_type": "london_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 9.9, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Other": 0.9, "Reform UK": 21.6, "Independent": 0.6, "Green": 22.1, "TUSC": 1.0, "Labour": 30.1, "Your Party": 0.6, "Conservative": 6.7, "Liberal Democrat": 16.3 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "Green", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-wandsworth", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Wandsworth", "subject_id": "wandsworth", "region": "Greater London", "council_type": "london_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 6.1, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Independent": 0.6, "Reform UK": 20.6, "Labour": 27.6, "Conservative": 22.4, "Liberal Democrat": 13.1, "TUSC": 1.0, "Green": 14.6 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-westminster", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Westminster", "subject_id": "westminster", "region": "Greater London", "council_type": "london_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 2.1, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Other": 0.6, "Reform UK": 22.4, "Independent": 0.6, "Green": 13.8, "Workers Party": 0.6, "Labour": 23.1, "Conservative": 20.9, "Liberal Democrat": 17.8 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "Conservative", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-gateshead", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Gateshead", "subject_id": "gateshead", "region": "North East", "council_type": "metropolitan_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 3.4, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Party Of Women": 0.1, "Communist": 0.1, "Reform UK": 30.4, "Independent": 0.6, "Green": 12.0, "Conservative": 12.6, "Save Us Now": 0.5, "TUSC": 1.6, "Labour": 31.8, "Imagine": 0.1, "Liberal Democrat": 10.2 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "Reform UK", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-hartlepool", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Hartlepool", "subject_id": "hartlepool", "region": "North East", "council_type": "unitary_authorities", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 4.8, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Independent": 0.7, "Reform UK": 31.4, "Labour": 33.2, "Conservative": 16.8, "Liberal Democrat": 7.6, "Green": 10.2 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-newcastle-upon-tyne", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Newcastle upon Tyne", "subject_id": "newcastle-upon-tyne", "region": "North East", "council_type": "metropolitan_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 6.8, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Party Of Women": 0.5, "Communist": 0.5, "Reform UK": 28.1, "Independent": 0.6, "Green": 13.3, "Conservative": 12.7, "Save Us Now": 0.1, "TUSC": 1.5, "Labour": 31.9, "Imagine": 0.5, "Liberal Democrat": 10.2 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-north-tyneside", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "North Tyneside", "subject_id": "north-tyneside", "region": "North East", "council_type": "metropolitan_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 3.0, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Independent": 0.6, "Workers Party": 0.6, "SDP": 0.6, "Reform UK": 30.0, "Labour": 29.9, "Conservative": 19.7, "Liberal Democrat": 7.4, "Green": 11.2 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-south-tyneside", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "South Tyneside", "subject_id": "south-tyneside", "region": "North East", "council_type": "metropolitan_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 3.2, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Independent": 1.5, "Reform UK": 31.1, "Labour": 31.1, "Conservative": 19.4, "Liberal Democrat": 6.4, "Green": 10.5 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "Reform UK", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-sunderland", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Sunderland", "subject_id": "sunderland", "region": "North East", "council_type": "metropolitan_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Reform UK", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 3.0, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Reform UK": 31.4, "Independent": 0.6, "Green": 9.4, "Save Us Now": 0.1, "TUSC": 0.4, "Labour": 31.9, "Conservative": 14.3, "Liberal Democrat": 11.9 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "Reform UK", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-blackburn-with-darwen", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Blackburn with Darwen", "subject_id": "blackburn-with-darwen", "region": "North West", "council_type": "unitary_authorities", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_confidence": "Lean", "predicted_margin_pp": 13.0, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Labour": 38.0, "Reform UK": 25.0, "Conservative": 15.0, "Liberal Democrat": 7.0, "Green": 8.0, "Independent": 4.0, "Other": 3.0 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-bolton", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Bolton", "subject_id": "bolton", "region": "North West", "council_type": "metropolitan_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 4.5, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Independent": 0.7, "Workers Party": 0.0, "Other": 0.9, "Your Party": 0.0, "Liberal Democrat": 6.8, "SDP": 0.0, "Farnworth and Kearsley First Party": 0.6, "Labour": 32.2, "Reform UK": 30.7, "Conservative": 16.8, "Advance UK": 0.6, "TUSC": 0.6, "Green": 10.1 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-burnley", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Burnley", "subject_id": "burnley", "region": "North West", "council_type": "district_councils", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 4.1, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Independent": 0.7, "Other": 0.4, "Reform UK": 31.0, "Labour": 32.0, "Conservative": 18.0, "Liberal Democrat": 7.4, "Green": 10.5 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-bury", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Bury", "subject_id": "bury", "region": "North West", "council_type": "metropolitan_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 3.4, "vote_shares_predicted": { "English Democrats": 0.6, "Communist": 0.6, "Reform UK": 28.9, "Together for Bury": 0.6, "Independent": 1.0, "Green": 10.9, "Radcliffe First": 0.6, "Workers Party": 0.6, "Labour": 29.9, "Conservative": 18.7, "Liberal Democrat": 7.5 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-chorley", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Chorley", "subject_id": "chorley", "region": "North West", "council_type": "district_councils", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 5.1, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Independent": 0.6, "Reform UK": 29.7, "Labour": 31.7, "Conservative": 19.2, "Liberal Democrat": 8.6, "TUSC": 0.6, "Green": 9.6 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-halton", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Halton", "subject_id": "halton", "region": "North West", "council_type": "unitary_authorities", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 8.4, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Reform UK": 27.5, "Independent": 0.6, "Green": 11.4, "Labour": 33.7, "Conservative": 16.9, "Liberal Democrat": 9.2, "Libertarian Party": 0.6 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-hyndburn", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Hyndburn", "subject_id": "hyndburn", "region": "North West", "council_type": "district_councils", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Reform UK", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 0.7, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Other": 0.5, "Reform UK": 32.6, "Independent": 0.9, "Green": 14.2, "Labour": 30.6, "Conservative": 21.1 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-knowsley", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Knowsley", "subject_id": "knowsley", "region": "North West", "council_type": "metropolitan_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 17.6, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Reform UK": 25.6, "Independent": 0.6, "Green": 11.6, "Labour": 37.7, "Conservative": 16.8, "Liberal Democrat": 7.7 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-manchester", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Manchester", "subject_id": "manchester", "region": "North West", "council_type": "metropolitan_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 14.2, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Independent": 0.5, "Workers Party": 0.5, "Other": 0.8, "Your Party": 0.1, "The Official Monster Raving Loony Party": 0.1, "Liberal Democrat": 8.0, "SDP": 0.4, "Communist League Election Campaign (Communist League)": 0.4, "Reform UK": 23.6, "Labour": 33.1, "Communist": 0.4, "Conservative": 10.8, "Advance UK": 0.1, "TUSC": 0.8, "Green": 20.3 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-oldham", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Oldham", "subject_id": "oldham", "region": "North West", "council_type": "metropolitan_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 4.7, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Other": 1.3, "The Oldham Group Party": 0.6, "Reform UK": 29.9, "Independent": 0.6, "Green": 9.7, "Workers Party": 0.6, "Labour": 32.1, "Conservative": 17.4, "Liberal Democrat": 6.7, "National Housing Party United Kingdom (National Housing Party Oldham People First)": 1.0 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-pendle", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Pendle", "subject_id": "pendle", "region": "North West", "council_type": "district_councils", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Reform UK", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 4.2, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Other": 1.7, "Reform UK": 29.4, "Independent": 2.3, "Green": 10.0, "Labour": 16.5, "Conservative": 17.3, "Liberal Democrat": 22.9 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-preston", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Preston", "subject_id": "preston", "region": "North West", "council_type": "district_councils", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Reform UK", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 2.5, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Other": 1.0, "Reform UK": 30.3, "Independent": 0.7, "Green": 11.8, "TUSC": 0.7, "Labour": 30.3, "Conservative": 16.1, "Liberal Democrat": 9.1 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-rochdale", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Rochdale", "subject_id": "rochdale", "region": "North West", "council_type": "metropolitan_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 4.6, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Independent": 0.9, "Workers Party": 0.8, "Other": 0.8, "Liberal Democrat": 6.8, "Farnworth and Kearsley First Party": 0.1, "Labour": 31.6, "Reform UK": 30.1, "Conservative": 18.4, "Advance UK": 0.6, "TUSC": 0.1, "Green": 9.7 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-salford", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Salford", "subject_id": "salford", "region": "North West", "council_type": "metropolitan_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 7.3, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Independent": 0.5, "Workers Party": 0.0, "Other": 0.1, "Your Party": 0.4, "Liberal Democrat": 11.2, "SDP": 0.1, "Communist League Election Campaign (Communist League)": 0.0, "Farnworth and Kearsley First Party": 0.0, "Labour": 30.7, "Communist": 0.0, "Reform UK": 26.3, "Conservative": 15.8, "Advance UK": 0.4, "TUSC": 0.5, "Green": 13.9 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-sefton", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Sefton", "subject_id": "sefton", "region": "North West", "council_type": "metropolitan_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 4.4, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Independent": 0.6, "Formby Residents Action Group": 0.6, "The Official Monster Raving Loony Party": 0.6, "Reform UK": 27.1, "Labour": 28.4, "Conservative": 20.1, "Liberal Democrat": 9.8, "TUSC": 1.0, "Green": 11.8 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-st-helens", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "St Helens", "subject_id": "st-helens", "region": "North West", "council_type": "metropolitan_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 0.5, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Reform UK": 29.2, "Independent": 0.7, "Green": 12.3, "Labour": 30.6, "Conservative": 17.8, "Liberal Democrat": 9.3 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "Reform UK", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-stockport", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Stockport", "subject_id": "stockport", "region": "North West", "council_type": "metropolitan_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 3.4, "vote_shares_predicted": { "SDP": 0.1, "Advance UK": 0.1, "Party Of Women": 0.5, "Reform UK": 26.1, "Independent": 0.9, "Green": 9.8, "TUSC": 0.5, "Labour": 18.4, "Edgeley Community Association": 0.5, "Conservative": 17.6, "Liberal Democrat": 25.0, "Your Party": 0.5 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-tameside", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Tameside", "subject_id": "tameside", "region": "North West", "council_type": "metropolitan_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Reform UK", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 0.4, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Independent": 0.6, "Workers Party": 0.6, "Other": 0.2, "Your Party": 0.5, "The Official Monster Raving Loony Party": 0.5, "SDP": 0.1, "Communist League Election Campaign (Communist League)": 0.1, "Reform UK": 28.9, "Labour": 28.9, "Communist": 0.1, "Conservative": 16.1, "Liberal Democrat": 8.9, "TUSC": 0.2, "Green": 14.3 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-trafford", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Trafford", "subject_id": "trafford", "region": "North West", "council_type": "metropolitan_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 5.8, "vote_shares_predicted": { "SDP": 0.5, "Advance UK": 0.5, "Party Of Women": 0.1, "Reform UK": 24.2, "Independent": 0.7, "Green": 11.7, "TUSC": 0.1, "Labour": 24.9, "Edgeley Community Association": 0.1, "Conservative": 19.4, "Liberal Democrat": 17.6, "Your Party": 0.1 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-west-lancashire", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "West Lancashire", "subject_id": "west-lancashire", "region": "North West", "council_type": "district_councils", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 5.3, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Our West Lancashire": 0.6, "Reform UK": 29.4, "Green": 9.6, "Labour": 32.4, "Your Party": 0.6, "Conservative": 19.2, "Liberal Democrat": 8.2 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-wigan", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Wigan", "subject_id": "wigan", "region": "North West", "council_type": "metropolitan_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 3.9, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Independent": 0.6, "Other": 0.1, "Your Party": 0.1, "Liberal Democrat": 6.5, "SDP": 0.5, "Farnworth and Kearsley First Party": 0.1, "Labour": 33.9, "Reform UK": 32.6, "Conservative": 15.6, "Advance UK": 0.1, "TUSC": 0.1, "Green": 9.8 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-adur", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Adur", "subject_id": "adur", "region": "South East", "council_type": "district_councils", "incumbent_before": "Conservative", "predicted_winner": "Reform UK", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 1.5, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Reform UK": 30.5, "Independent": 1.1, "Green": 12.5, "Labour": 11.3, "Conservative": 27.8, "Liberal Democrat": 16.8 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-basingstoke-and-deane", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Basingstoke and Deane", "subject_id": "basingstoke-and-deane", "region": "South East", "council_type": "district_councils", "incumbent_before": "Conservative", "predicted_winner": "Reform UK", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 2.4, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Independent": 0.7, "The All In Party": 0.7, "Reform UK": 27.4, "Labour": 8.3, "Conservative": 27.5, "Liberal Democrat": 22.8, "Green": 12.6 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-cherwell", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Cherwell", "subject_id": "cherwell", "region": "South East", "council_type": "district_councils", "incumbent_before": "Conservative", "predicted_winner": "Conservative", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 2.9, "vote_shares_predicted": { "SDP": 0.7, "Animal Welfare": 0.7, "Reform UK": 26.8, "Independent": 0.7, "Green": 12.6, "Labour": 9.6, "Conservative": 27.6, "Liberal Democrat": 21.3 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-crawley", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Crawley", "subject_id": "crawley", "region": "South East", "council_type": "district_councils", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Conservative", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 4.2, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Other": 0.2, "Reform UK": 28.5, "Independent": 0.7, "Green": 11.8, "TUSC": 0.7, "Labour": 15.1, "Conservative": 26.7, "Liberal Democrat": 16.2 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-east-surrey", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "East Surrey", "subject_id": "east-surrey", "region": "South East", "council_type": "unitary_authorities", "incumbent_before": "Conservative", "predicted_winner": "Conservative", "predicted_confidence": "Lean", "predicted_margin_pp": 10.2, "vote_shares_predicted": { "SDP": 0.6, "Nork & Tattenhams Residents' Associations": 0.6, "Reform UK": 22.1, "Independent": 0.6, "Heritage": 0.6, "Green": 12.6, "Residents Associations of Epsom and Ewell": 0.6, "The Molesey Residents Association": 0.6, "Hinchley Wood Residents (Hinchley Wood Residents - Weston, Long Ditton)": 0.6, "Labour": 5.7, "Thames Ditton / Weston Green Residents' Association (Thames Ditton Residents' Association)": 0.6, "The Walton Society": 0.6, "Liberal Democrat": 20.7, "Conservative": 33.4 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" } }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-east-sussex", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "East Sussex", "subject_id": "east-sussex", "region": "South East", "council_type": "county_councils", "incumbent_before": "Conservative", "predicted_winner": "Conservative", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 2.5, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Independent": 0.6, "UKIP": 0.6, "Liberal Democrat": 17.0, "Reform UK": 30.5, "Labour": 6.5, "Conservative": 30.9, "Heritage": 0.6, "TUSC": 0.6, "Green": 12.6 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-eastleigh", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Eastleigh", "subject_id": "eastleigh", "region": "South East", "council_type": "district_councils", "incumbent_before": "Liberal Democrat", "predicted_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 5.0, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Reform UK": 25.0, "Independent": 0.7, "Green": 12.7, "TUSC": 0.7, "Labour": 10.8, "Conservative": 20.4, "Liberal Democrat": 29.8 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-fareham", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Fareham", "subject_id": "fareham", "region": "South East", "council_type": "district_councils", "incumbent_before": "Conservative", "predicted_winner": "Reform UK", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 2.0, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Reform UK": 29.5, "Labour": 11.2, "Conservative": 29.5, "Liberal Democrat": 17.1, "Green": 12.7 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "Conservative", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-gosport", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Gosport", "subject_id": "gosport", "region": "South East", "council_type": "district_councils", "incumbent_before": "Conservative", "predicted_winner": "Reform UK", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 2.2, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Reform UK": 29.8, "Labour": 13.6, "Conservative": 24.9, "Liberal Democrat": 20.6, "Green": 11.1 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-hampshire", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Hampshire", "subject_id": "hampshire", "region": "South East", "council_type": "county_councils", "incumbent_before": "Conservative", "predicted_winner": "Conservative", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 6.8, "vote_shares_predicted": { "SDP": 0.6, "Reform UK": 24.3, "Whitehill & Bordon Community Party": 0.6, "Libertarian Party (Libertarian Party UK)": 1.0, "Independent": 0.6, "The All In Party": 0.6, "The Official Monster Raving Loony Party": 0.6, "Green": 13.4, "Wessex Regionalists": 0.6, "Labour": 8.1, "Your Party": 0.6, "Conservative": 29.2, "Liberal Democrat": 19.1, "Community Campaign (Hart)": 0.6 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-hart", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Hart", "subject_id": "hart", "region": "South East", "council_type": "district_councils", "incumbent_before": "Conservative", "predicted_winner": "Conservative", "predicted_confidence": "Lean", "predicted_margin_pp": 6.0, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Reform UK": 26.3, "The Official Monster Raving Loony Party": 0.6, "Green": 13.7, "Labour": 8.2, "Conservative": 30.3, "Liberal Democrat": 20.4, "Community Campaign (Hart)": 0.6 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-hastings", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Hastings", "subject_id": "hastings", "region": "South East", "council_type": "district_councils", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Green", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 4.8, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Reform UK": 25.0, "Libertarian Party (Libertarian Party UK)": 0.6, "Independent": 0.6, "Green": 35.5, "Labour": 6.0, "Conservative": 23.3, "Liberal Democrat": 9.0 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "Green", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-havant", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Havant", "subject_id": "havant", "region": "South East", "council_type": "district_councils", "incumbent_before": "Conservative", "predicted_winner": "Reform UK", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 3.5, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Reform UK": 30.8, "Labour": 20.4, "Conservative": 21.8, "Liberal Democrat": 15.7, "Green": 11.3 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-isle-of-wight", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Isle of Wight", "subject_id": "isle-of-wight", "region": "South East", "council_type": "unitary_authorities", "incumbent_before": "Conservative", "predicted_winner": "Reform UK", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 1.8, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Reform UK": 29.9, "Vectis Party": 1.1, "Independent": 2.3, "Green": 12.6, "Labour": 11.9, "Conservative": 27.1, "Liberal Democrat": 15.2 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" } }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-milton-keynes", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Milton Keynes", "subject_id": "milton-keynes", "region": "South East", "council_type": "unitary_authorities", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Reform UK", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 3.4, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Independent": 0.6, "Workers Party": 0.6, "Liberal Democrat": 24.2, "Reform UK": 27.4, "Labour": 10.7, "Conservative": 24.8, "Heritage": 0.6, "Green": 11.0 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" } }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-oxford", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Oxford", "subject_id": "oxford", "region": "South East", "council_type": "district_councils", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 3.7, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Independent": 0.7, "Workers Party": 0.7, "Other": 0.2, "Reform UK": 15.4, "Labour": 7.5, "Conservative": 25.6, "Liberal Democrat": 29.6, "TUSC": 0.7, "Green": 19.6 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-portsmouth", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Portsmouth", "subject_id": "portsmouth", "region": "South East", "council_type": "unitary_authorities", "incumbent_before": "Liberal Democrat", "predicted_winner": "Reform UK", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 2.2, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Independent": 0.7, "Liberal Democrat": 20.5, "Reform UK": 29.2, "Labour": 13.8, "Conservative": 23.9, "Heritage": 0.7, "Green": 11.2 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-reading", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Reading", "subject_id": "reading", "region": "South East", "council_type": "unitary_authorities", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 1.8, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Independent": 0.7, "Other": 0.8, "Liberal Democrat": 27.2, "SDP": 0.7, "Reform UK": 18.7, "Labour": 13.9, "Conservative": 25.2, "The Liberal Party (Your Local Liberal Party)": 0.7, "TUSC": 0.7, "Green": 11.5 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-rushmoor", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Rushmoor", "subject_id": "rushmoor", "region": "South East", "council_type": "district_councils", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Reform UK", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 1.4, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Other": 0.2, "Reform UK": 28.3, "Independent": 0.6, "British Democratic Party (British Democrats)": 0.6, "Green": 12.3, "TUSC": 0.6, "Labour": 13.2, "Conservative": 27.6, "Liberal Democrat": 16.6 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-southampton", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Southampton", "subject_id": "southampton", "region": "South East", "council_type": "unitary_authorities", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 3.1, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Reform UK": 27.8, "Independent": 0.6, "Green": 9.7, "TUSC": 1.0, "Labour": 28.4, "Conservative": 17.6, "Liberal Democrat": 14.8 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-tunbridge-wells", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Tunbridge Wells", "subject_id": "tunbridge-wells", "region": "South East", "council_type": "district_councils", "incumbent_before": "Conservative", "predicted_winner": "Conservative", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 4.4, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Independent": 0.7, "English Democrats": 0.7, "Reform UK": 24.7, "Labour": 7.2, "Conservative": 28.1, "Liberal Democrat": 23.6, "Tunbridge Wells Alliance": 1.4, "Green": 13.5 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-west-oxfordshire", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "West Oxfordshire", "subject_id": "west-oxfordshire", "region": "South East", "council_type": "district_councils", "incumbent_before": "Liberal Democrat", "predicted_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 1.3, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Independent": 0.7, "Reform UK": 25.4, "Labour": 5.0, "Conservative": 28.6, "Liberal Democrat": 28.8, "Green": 11.4 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-west-surrey", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "West Surrey", "subject_id": "west-surrey", "region": "South East", "council_type": "unitary_authorities", "incumbent_before": "Conservative", "predicted_winner": "Conservative", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 11.1, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Reform UK": 21.9, "Farnham Residents": 0.6, "Independent": 0.6, "Heritage": 0.6, "Green": 12.4, "The Official Monster Raving Loony Party (Official Monster Raving Loony Party)": 0.6, "Residents for Guildford and Villages": 0.6, "TUSC": 0.6, "Labour": 9.1, "Conservative": 31.9, "Liberal Democrat": 20.4, "The Peace Party - Non-violence, Justice, Environment": 0.6 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" } }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-west-sussex", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "West Sussex", "subject_id": "west-sussex", "region": "South East", "council_type": "county_councils", "incumbent_before": "Conservative", "predicted_winner": "Conservative", "predicted_confidence": "Lean", "predicted_margin_pp": 6.9, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Independent": 0.6, "The Official Monster Raving Loony Party (Official Monster Raving Loony Party)": 0.6, "Local Alliance": 0.6, "English Democrats": 0.6, "The Peace Party - Non-violence, Justice, Environment": 0.6, "Reform UK": 24.9, "Labour": 6.9, "Pirate Party UK (UK Pirate Party)": 0.6, "Libertarian Party (Libertarian Party UK)": 0.6, "Conservative": 30.0, "Liberal Democrat": 20.8, "Patria": 0.6, "Green": 12.5 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-winchester", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Winchester", "subject_id": "winchester", "region": "South East", "council_type": "district_councils", "incumbent_before": "Liberal Democrat", "predicted_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 3.8, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Reform UK": 22.4, "Independent": 1.1, "Green": 12.2, "Labour": 8.5, "Conservative": 25.9, "Liberal Democrat": 29.9 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-wokingham", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Wokingham", "subject_id": "wokingham", "region": "South East", "council_type": "unitary_authorities", "incumbent_before": "Liberal Democrat", "predicted_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 4.6, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Independent": 0.6, "Reform UK": 24.2, "Labour": 5.5, "Conservative": 26.1, "Liberal Democrat": 31.1, "TUSC": 0.6, "Green": 11.8 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-worthing", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Worthing", "subject_id": "worthing", "region": "South East", "council_type": "district_councils", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Reform UK", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 3.6, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Reform UK": 28.2, "Labour": 17.1, "Conservative": 28.7, "Liberal Democrat": 13.8, "Green": 12.1 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-cheltenham", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Cheltenham", "subject_id": "cheltenham", "region": "South West", "council_type": "district_councils", "incumbent_before": "Liberal Democrat", "predicted_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 6.8, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Christian Peoples Alliance (Christian Peoples Alliance - Supporting Traditional Marriage)": 0.6, "Liberal Democrat": 31.3, "Reform UK": 20.3, "Labour": 8.9, "Conservative": 24.0, "Heritage": 0.6, "TUSC": 0.6, "Green": 13.6 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-exeter", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Exeter", "subject_id": "exeter", "region": "South West", "council_type": "district_councils", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 3.8, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Reform UK": 22.5, "Independent": 1.1, "Green": 12.8, "TUSC": 0.6, "Labour": 9.3, "Conservative": 24.9, "Liberal Democrat": 28.8 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-plymouth", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Plymouth", "subject_id": "plymouth", "region": "South West", "council_type": "unitary_authorities", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 2.5, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Reform UK": 29.6, "Independent": 1.0, "Green": 8.9, "TUSC": 0.6, "Labour": 29.6, "Conservative": 21.4, "Liberal Democrat": 8.8 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-swindon", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Swindon", "subject_id": "swindon", "region": "South West", "council_type": "unitary_authorities", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Reform UK", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 2.6, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Reform UK": 30.3, "Green": 11.2, "TUSC": 0.7, "Labour": 26.5, "Conservative": 20.8, "Liberal Democrat": 10.5 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" } }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-birmingham", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Birmingham", "subject_id": "birmingham", "region": "West Midlands", "council_type": "metropolitan_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 5.2, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Independent": 0.6, "Workers Party": 0.9, "Other": 1.8, "Your Party": 0.5, "Liberal Democrat": 10.6, "Coventry Citizens Party": 0.0, "SDP": 0.0, "Reform UK": 27.2, "Labour": 28.0, "Conservative": 16.8, "Advance UK": 0.0, "TUSC": 0.5, "Green": 13.0 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-cannock-chase", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Cannock Chase", "subject_id": "cannock-chase", "region": "West Midlands", "council_type": "district_councils", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Reform UK", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 3.2, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Reform UK": 33.5, "Independent": 0.9, "Green": 13.5, "TUSC": 0.9, "Labour": 27.1, "Conservative": 24.2 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-coventry", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Coventry", "subject_id": "coventry", "region": "West Midlands", "council_type": "metropolitan_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Reform UK", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 2.7, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Independent": 0.5, "Workers Party": 0.5, "Other": 0.7, "Your Party": 0.0, "Coventry Citizens Party": 0.5, "SDP": 0.5, "Reform UK": 30.4, "Labour": 29.4, "Conservative": 17.7, "Liberal Democrat": 8.4, "TUSC": 0.5, "Green": 10.8 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-dudley", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Dudley", "subject_id": "dudley", "region": "West Midlands", "council_type": "metropolitan_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Conservative", "predicted_winner": "Reform UK", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 5.5, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Other": 0.2, "Advance UK": 0.1, "Reform UK": 31.0, "Freedom Alliance": 0.6, "Independent": 0.6, "The Black Country Party": 0.6, "Green": 12.5, "Yeshua": 0.1, "TUSC": 0.9, "Labour": 21.1, "Conservative": 22.1, "Liberal Democrat": 9.6, "Libertarian Party": 0.6 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-newcastle-under-lyme", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Newcastle-under-Lyme", "subject_id": "newcastle-under-lyme", "region": "West Midlands", "council_type": "district_councils", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Reform UK", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 4.7, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Independent": 0.7, "Reform UK": 30.2, "Labour": 18.6, "Conservative": 23.8, "Liberal Democrat": 12.1, "TUSC": 0.7, "The Potteries Party (Potteries Party: Serving North Staffordshire)": 1.1, "Green": 12.8 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "Reform UK", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-nuneaton-and-bedworth", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Nuneaton and Bedworth", "subject_id": "nuneaton-and-bedworth", "region": "West Midlands", "council_type": "district_councils", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Reform UK", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 4.2, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Reform UK": 32.0, "Labour": 24.9, "Conservative": 21.0, "Liberal Democrat": 8.6, "TUSC": 1.1, "Green": 12.3 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-redditch", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Redditch", "subject_id": "redditch", "region": "West Midlands", "council_type": "district_councils", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Reform UK", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 1.6, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Reform UK": 31.6, "Labour": 30.0, "Conservative": 19.8, "Liberal Democrat": 7.9, "Green": 10.8 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-rugby", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Rugby", "subject_id": "rugby", "region": "West Midlands", "council_type": "district_councils", "incumbent_before": "Conservative", "predicted_winner": "Reform UK", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 1.1, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Reform UK": 30.3, "Labour": 24.1, "Conservative": 24.4, "Liberal Democrat": 9.8, "Green": 11.4 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-sandwell", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Sandwell", "subject_id": "sandwell", "region": "West Midlands", "council_type": "metropolitan_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_confidence": "Lean", "predicted_margin_pp": 15.0, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Labour": 39.0, "Reform UK": 24.0, "Conservative": 16.0, "Liberal Democrat": 9.0, "Green": 7.0, "Independent": 3.0, "Other": 2.0 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "Reform UK", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-solihull", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Solihull", "subject_id": "solihull", "region": "West Midlands", "council_type": "metropolitan_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Conservative", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 2.5, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Independent": 0.7, "Workers Party": 0.1, "Other": 0.3, "Your Party": 0.1, "Coventry Citizens Party": 0.1, "SDP": 0.1, "Reform UK": 29.0, "Labour": 29.1, "Conservative": 21.1, "Liberal Democrat": 8.8, "TUSC": 0.1, "Green": 10.4 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-tamworth", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Tamworth", "subject_id": "tamworth", "region": "West Midlands", "council_type": "district_councils", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Reform UK", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 2.2, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Reform UK": 31.2, "Independent": 0.7, "Green": 11.3, "UKIP": 0.7, "Labour": 26.6, "Conservative": 21.0, "Liberal Democrat": 8.4 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-walsall", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Walsall", "subject_id": "walsall", "region": "West Midlands", "council_type": "metropolitan_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Conservative", "predicted_winner": "Reform UK", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 6.0, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Independent": 0.7, "Workers Party": 0.2, "Other": 1.1, "Your Party": 0.1, "Liberal Democrat": 10.8, "Reform UK": 30.8, "Labour": 20.6, "Conservative": 21.9, "Advance UK": 0.6, "TUSC": 0.1, "Green": 13.1 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "Reform UK", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-wolverhampton", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Wolverhampton", "subject_id": "wolverhampton", "region": "West Midlands", "council_type": "metropolitan_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_confidence": "Lean", "predicted_margin_pp": 13.0, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Labour": 38.0, "Reform UK": 25.0, "Conservative": 16.0, "Liberal Democrat": 8.0, "Green": 7.0, "Independent": 3.0, "Other": 3.0 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-barnsley", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Barnsley", "subject_id": "barnsley", "region": "Yorkshire and The Humber", "council_type": "metropolitan_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Reform UK", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 2.3, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Independent": 0.6, "English Democrats": 0.6, "SDP": 0.6, "Reform UK": 33.8, "Labour": 32.9, "Conservative": 15.3, "Liberal Democrat": 6.1, "TUSC": 0.6, "Green": 9.4 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "Reform UK", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-bradford", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Bradford", "subject_id": "bradford", "region": "Yorkshire and The Humber", "council_type": "metropolitan_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_confidence": "Lean", "predicted_margin_pp": 17.0, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Labour": 40.0, "Reform UK": 23.0, "Conservative": 14.0, "Green": 11.0, "Liberal Democrat": 8.0, "Independent": 2.0, "Other": 2.0 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-calderdale", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Calderdale", "subject_id": "calderdale", "region": "Yorkshire and The Humber", "council_type": "metropolitan_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 4.8, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Independent": 0.6, "Community Alliance Kirklees": 0.1, "People's Alliance for Change and Equality": 0.1, "Workers Party": 0.5, "Other": 0.2, "The Official Monster Raving Loony Party": 0.5, "Reform UK": 30.0, "Labour": 31.6, "Conservative": 19.2, "Liberal Democrat": 7.2, "The Revolting Party (The Revolting Party. Join The Revolt)": 0.1, "Green": 9.8 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "Reform UK", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-kingston-upon-hull", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Kingston upon Hull", "subject_id": "kingston-upon-hull", "region": "Yorkshire and The Humber", "council_type": "unitary_authorities", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 6.8, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Reform UK": 29.2, "Labour": 33.0, "Conservative": 16.0, "Liberal Democrat": 12.0, "Green": 9.8 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-kirklees", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Kirklees", "subject_id": "kirklees", "region": "Yorkshire and The Humber", "council_type": "metropolitan_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 4.6, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Independent": 0.6, "Community Alliance Kirklees": 0.5, "People's Alliance for Change and Equality": 0.5, "Workers Party": 0.1, "Other": 0.6, "English Democrats": 0.1, "The Official Monster Raving Loony Party": 0.1, "SDP": 0.1, "Reform UK": 29.9, "Labour": 31.2, "Conservative": 18.8, "Liberal Democrat": 7.1, "The Revolting Party (The Revolting Party. Join The Revolt)": 0.5, "TUSC": 0.1, "Green": 9.7 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-leeds", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Leeds", "subject_id": "leeds", "region": "Yorkshire and The Humber", "council_type": "metropolitan_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 5.5, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Yorkshire Party": 0.5, "SDP": 0.5, "Other": 0.2, "Reform UK": 24.1, "Independent": 0.5, "The Official Monster Raving Loony Party": 0.4, "Heritage": 0.1, "Green": 19.3, "British Democratic Party (British Democrats)": 0.1, "UKIP": 0.5, "TUSC": 0.5, "Labour": 26.8, "Your Party": 0.4, "Conservative": 17.4, "Liberal Democrat": 8.6 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-north-east-lincolnshire", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "North East Lincolnshire", "subject_id": "north-east-lincolnshire", "region": "Yorkshire and The Humber", "council_type": "unitary_authorities", "incumbent_before": "Conservative", "predicted_winner": "Reform UK", "predicted_confidence": "Lean", "predicted_margin_pp": 9.9, "vote_shares_predicted": { "SDP": 0.7, "Reform UK": 33.3, "Independent": 0.7, "Green": 13.4, "TUSC": 0.7, "Labour": 18.8, "Conservative": 20.4, "Liberal Democrat": 11.2, "National Housing Party United Kingdom (National Housing Party Grimsby People First)": 0.7 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-sheffield", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Sheffield", "subject_id": "sheffield", "region": "Yorkshire and The Humber", "council_type": "metropolitan_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 7.2, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Reform UK": 21.6, "Independent": 0.6, "Green": 21.4, "UKIP": 0.6, "TUSC": 0.6, "Labour": 26.4, "Conservative": 17.2, "Liberal Democrat": 11.6 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-wakefield", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Wakefield", "subject_id": "wakefield", "region": "Yorkshire and The Humber", "council_type": "metropolitan_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 5.0, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Yorkshire Party": 0.6, "SDP": 0.6, "Reform UK": 28.6, "Independent": 0.6, "The Official Monster Raving Loony Party": 0.1, "Green": 11.9, "British Democratic Party (British Democrats)": 0.5, "UKIP": 0.1, "TUSC": 0.6, "Labour": 31.3, "Your Party": 0.1, "Conservative": 17.1, "Liberal Democrat": 7.8 }, "predicted_at": "2026-04-22T12:42:38+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-1", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668/scripts/kpm1/" }, "actual_winner": "Reform UK", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-lincoln", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Lincoln", "subject_id": "lincoln", "region": "East Midlands", "council_type": "district_councils", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_confidence": "NOC", "predicted_margin_pp": 1.3, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Reform UK": 25.9, "Independent": 1.0, "Green": 10.8, "Labour": 23.3, "Conservative": 24.6, "Liberal Democrat": 12.5, "The Liberal Party (Liberal Party Candidate And Local Resident)": 1.8 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-basildon", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Basildon", "subject_id": "basildon", "region": "East of England", "council_type": "district_councils", "incumbent_before": "Conservative", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_confidence": "NOC", "predicted_margin_pp": 0.0, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Reform UK": 34.4, "Independent": 0.8, "British Democratic Party (British Democrats)": 0.8, "Green": 13.9, "Labour": 17.1, "Conservative": 21.8, "Liberal Democrat": 11.2 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-brentwood", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Brentwood", "subject_id": "brentwood", "region": "East of England", "council_type": "district_councils", "incumbent_before": "Conservative", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_confidence": "NOC", "predicted_margin_pp": 0.0, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Reform UK": 27.9, "Independent": 1.1, "Green": 10.4, "Labour": 13.5, "Conservative": 25.1, "Liberal Democrat": 22.0 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-broxbourne", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Broxbourne", "subject_id": "broxbourne", "region": "East of England", "council_type": "district_councils", "incumbent_before": "Conservative", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_confidence": "NOC", "predicted_margin_pp": 0.5, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Reform UK": 31.1, "Green": 12.5, "TUSC": 0.7, "Labour": 16.4, "Conservative": 30.6, "Liberal Democrat": 8.7 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "Conservative", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-cambridge", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Cambridge", "subject_id": "cambridge", "region": "East of England", "council_type": "district_councils", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_confidence": "NOC", "predicted_margin_pp": 2.6, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Other": 0.4, "Communist": 0.7, "Reform UK": 13.4, "Independent": 0.7, "Green": 17.0, "Labour": 14.0, "Conservative": 25.6, "Liberal Democrat": 28.2 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-colchester", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Colchester", "subject_id": "colchester", "region": "East of England", "council_type": "district_councils", "incumbent_before": "Liberal Democrat", "predicted_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "predicted_confidence": "Lean", "predicted_margin_pp": 0.0, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Reform UK": 28.9, "Independent": 0.7, "Green": 12.0, "Labour": 11.5, "Conservative": 25.4, "Liberal Democrat": 21.4 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-epping-forest", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Epping Forest", "subject_id": "epping-forest", "region": "East of England", "council_type": "district_councils", "incumbent_before": "Conservative", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_confidence": "NOC", "predicted_margin_pp": 0.8, "vote_shares_predicted": { "English Democrats": 0.6, "Reform UK": 30.1, "Independent": 0.6, "Green": 13.0, "TUSC": 0.6, "Labour": 9.3, "Conservative": 30.9, "Liberal Democrat": 14.8 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-essex", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Essex", "subject_id": "essex", "region": "East of England", "council_type": "county_councils", "incumbent_before": "Conservative", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_confidence": "NOC", "predicted_margin_pp": 0.5, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Independent": 0.6, "English Democrats": 0.6, "Advance UK": 0.6, "Residents for Uttlesford": 0.6, "Reform UK": 31.2, "Labour": 8.3, "Conservative": 30.7, "South Woodham Ferrers Residents Party": 0.6, "Liberal Democrat": 13.1, "TUSC": 0.6, "Green": 12.5, "Rochford District Residents": 0.6 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "Reform UK", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-harlow", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Harlow", "subject_id": "harlow", "region": "East of England", "council_type": "district_councils", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_confidence": "NOC", "predicted_margin_pp": 0.5, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Reform UK": 31.0, "Independent": 0.7, "Green": 12.4, "TUSC": 0.7, "Labour": 15.1, "Conservative": 30.5, "Liberal Democrat": 9.6 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "Conservative", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-huntingdonshire", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Huntingdonshire", "subject_id": "huntingdonshire", "region": "East of England", "council_type": "district_councils", "incumbent_before": "Conservative", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_confidence": "NOC", "predicted_margin_pp": 1.8, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Independent": 0.6, "Party Of Women": 0.6, "Animal Welfare": 0.6, "Reform UK": 29.5, "Labour": 9.0, "Conservative": 27.7, "Liberal Democrat": 19.4, "Green": 12.6 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-ipswich", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Ipswich", "subject_id": "ipswich", "region": "East of England", "council_type": "district_councils", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_confidence": "NOC", "predicted_margin_pp": 6.7, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Reform UK": 32.8, "Labour": 26.1, "Conservative": 20.9, "Liberal Democrat": 9.1, "Green": 11.2 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-norfolk", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Norfolk", "subject_id": "norfolk", "region": "East of England", "council_type": "county_councils", "incumbent_before": "Conservative", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_confidence": "NOC", "predicted_margin_pp": 0.2, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Independent": 0.6, "The Official Monster Raving Loony Party (Official Monster Raving Loony Party)": 0.6, "Heritage": 0.6, "Great Yarmouth First": 0.6, "Reform UK": 31.8, "Labour": 9.5, "Communist": 0.6, "Conservative": 32.0, "Liberal Democrat": 10.9, "Green": 12.7 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-norwich", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Norwich", "subject_id": "norwich", "region": "East of England", "council_type": "district_councils", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_confidence": "NOC", "predicted_margin_pp": 0.0, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Communist": 0.6, "Reform UK": 22.4, "Green": 15.5, "Labour": 25.7, "Conservative": 20.8, "Liberal Democrat": 14.3, "British Democratic Party": 0.6 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "Green", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-peterborough", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Peterborough", "subject_id": "peterborough", "region": "East of England", "council_type": "unitary_authorities", "incumbent_before": "Conservative", "predicted_winner": "Reform UK", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 2.5, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Independent": 0.7, "Other": 0.3, "Your Party": 0.7, "Reform UK": 29.8, "Labour": 13.8, "Conservative": 26.2, "Liberal Democrat": 13.9, "TUSC": 0.7, "Green": 13.9 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-rochford", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Rochford", "subject_id": "rochford", "region": "East of England", "council_type": "district_councils", "incumbent_before": "Conservative", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_confidence": "NOC", "predicted_margin_pp": 0.0, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Reform UK": 29.3, "Independent": 0.6, "Heritage": 0.6, "Green": 12.2, "Labour": 11.0, "Conservative": 29.4, "Liberal Democrat": 16.2, "Rochford District Residents": 0.6 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-south-cambridgeshire", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "South Cambridgeshire", "subject_id": "south-cambridgeshire", "region": "East of England", "council_type": "district_councils", "incumbent_before": "Liberal Democrat", "predicted_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "predicted_confidence": "Lean", "predicted_margin_pp": 0.0, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Reform UK": 24.7, "Independent": 0.7, "Green": 12.5, "Labour": 10.1, "Conservative": 26.5, "Liberal Democrat": 25.5 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-southend-on-sea", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Southend-on-Sea", "subject_id": "southend-on-sea", "region": "East of England", "council_type": "unitary_authorities", "incumbent_before": "Conservative", "predicted_winner": "Reform UK", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 1.9, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Independent": 0.6, "Liberal Democrat": 13.4, "Confelicity": 0.6, "Reform UK": 30.3, "Labour": 14.1, "Conservative": 27.3, "Heritage": 0.6, "The Moon And Serpent Party": 0.6, "Green": 12.5 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-st-albans", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "St Albans", "subject_id": "st-albans", "region": "East of England", "council_type": "district_councils", "incumbent_before": "Liberal Democrat", "predicted_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "predicted_confidence": "Lean", "predicted_margin_pp": 0.0, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Independent": 0.6, "Reform UK": 23.3, "Labour": 7.3, "Communist": 0.6, "Conservative": 26.1, "Liberal Democrat": 30.4, "Green": 11.7 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-stevenage", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Stevenage", "subject_id": "stevenage", "region": "East of England", "council_type": "district_councils", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Reform UK", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 3.2, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Reform UK": 32.4, "Labour": 28.1, "Conservative": 18.0, "Liberal Democrat": 9.1, "TUSC": 0.7, "Green": 11.6 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-suffolk", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Suffolk", "subject_id": "suffolk", "region": "East of England", "council_type": "county_councils", "incumbent_before": "Conservative", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_confidence": "NOC", "predicted_margin_pp": 1.6, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Independent": 0.6, "The Official Monster Raving Loony Party (Official Monster Raving Loony Party)": 0.6, "Reform UK": 31.0, "Labour": 10.3, "Communist": 0.6, "Conservative": 32.6, "Liberal Democrat": 11.7, "Green": 12.6 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "Reform UK", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-three-rivers", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Three Rivers", "subject_id": "three-rivers", "region": "East of England", "council_type": "district_councils", "incumbent_before": "Liberal Democrat", "predicted_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "predicted_confidence": "Lean", "predicted_margin_pp": 0.0, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Independent": 0.7, "Other": 0.5, "Reform UK": 25.2, "Labour": 10.6, "Conservative": 24.7, "Liberal Democrat": 25.7, "TUSC": 0.7, "Green": 11.8 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-thurrock", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Thurrock", "subject_id": "thurrock", "region": "East of England", "council_type": "unitary_authorities", "incumbent_before": "Conservative", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_confidence": "NOC", "predicted_margin_pp": 0.0, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Reform UK": 33.8, "Independent": 0.8, "Green": 12.7, "Labour": 20.0, "Conservative": 21.7, "Liberal Democrat": 11.1 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-watford", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Watford", "subject_id": "watford", "region": "East of England", "council_type": "district_councils", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_confidence": "NOC", "predicted_margin_pp": 3.7, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Other": 1.3, "Reform UK": 27.5, "Heritage": 0.6, "Green": 11.0, "TUSC": 0.6, "Labour": 13.1, "Conservative": 23.8, "Liberal Democrat": 22.0 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-welwyn-hatfield", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Welwyn Hatfield", "subject_id": "welwyn-hatfield", "region": "East of England", "council_type": "district_councils", "incumbent_before": "Conservative", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_confidence": "NOC", "predicted_margin_pp": 0.9, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Liberal Democrat": 14.2, "Reform UK": 29.8, "Labour": 13.8, "Conservative": 28.9, "Heritage": 0.7, "Green": 12.5 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-barking-and-dagenham", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Barking and Dagenham", "subject_id": "barking-and-dagenham", "region": "Greater London", "council_type": "london_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 10.1, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Independent": 0.5, "Workers Party": 0.5, "Other": 1.4, "Reform UK": 25.2, "Labour": 32.4, "Conservative": 17.8, "Christian Peoples Alliance": 0.5, "Liberal Democrat": 8.5, "Green": 13.2 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-barnet", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Barnet", "subject_id": "barnet", "region": "Greater London", "council_type": "london_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_confidence": "NOC", "predicted_margin_pp": 1.9, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Other": 0.8, "Rejoin EU": 0.6, "Reform UK": 26.4, "Independent": 0.6, "Green": 13.3, "TUSC": 0.6, "Labour": 28.3, "Conservative": 20.9, "Liberal Democrat": 8.6 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-bexley", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Bexley", "subject_id": "bexley", "region": "Greater London", "council_type": "london_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Conservative", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_confidence": "NOC", "predicted_margin_pp": 0.7, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Reform UK": 22.6, "Independent": 0.6, "Working for Sidcup (Working for Sidcup - Not Party HQ)": 0.6, "Green": 12.8, "TUSC": 0.6, "Labour": 25.1, "Conservative": 24.4, "Liberal Democrat": 13.2 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "Conservative", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-brent", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Brent", "subject_id": "brent", "region": "Greater London", "council_type": "london_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_confidence": "NOC", "predicted_margin_pp": 7.2, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Independent": 0.6, "Workers Party": 0.6, "Other": 2.0, "Reform UK": 22.3, "Labour": 29.5, "Conservative": 20.0, "Liberal Democrat": 10.3, "UKIP": 0.6, "Green": 14.0 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-bromley", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Bromley", "subject_id": "bromley", "region": "Greater London", "council_type": "london_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Conservative", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_confidence": "NOC", "predicted_margin_pp": 0.3, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Independent": 0.6, "Chislehurst Matters": 0.6, "Reform UK": 27.0, "Labour": 16.8, "Better Bromley": 0.6, "Conservative": 26.7, "Liberal Democrat": 13.5, "Green": 14.2 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "Conservative", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-camden", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Camden", "subject_id": "camden", "region": "Greater London", "council_type": "london_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_confidence": "NOC", "predicted_margin_pp": 8.9, "vote_shares_predicted": { "National Housing Party United Kingdom (National Housing Party Camden People First)": 1.6, "Independent": 0.6, "National Housing Party United Kingdom (National Housing Party No More Refugees)": 0.6, "Other": 0.7, "Reform UK": 19.2, "Labour": 29.8, "Camden People's Alliance": 0.6, "Conservative": 7.5, "Liberal Democrat": 18.4, "Green": 20.9 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-croydon", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Croydon", "subject_id": "croydon", "region": "Greater London", "council_type": "london_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_confidence": "NOC", "predicted_margin_pp": 3.4, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Independent": 0.6, "SDP": 0.0, "Taking The Initiative Party (Taking the Initiative Party of Britain)": 0.5, "The Motoring Party": 0.0, "Reform UK": 24.3, "Labour": 27.7, "Communist": 0.0, "Conservative": 20.4, "Equality Party": 0.5, "TUSC": 0.8, "Other": 0.6, "Climate Party": 0.0, "The Christian Party Christian Peoples Alliance": 0.0, "Christian Peoples Alliance": 0.0, "Liberal Democrat": 9.9, "The Socialist Party of Great Britain (The Socialist Party (GB))": 0.0, "Chislehurst Matters": 0.0, "Green": 13.7, "Workers Party": 0.5, "Your Party": 0.5, "Better Bromley": 0.0 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-ealing", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Ealing", "subject_id": "ealing", "region": "Greater London", "council_type": "london_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 6.0, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Independent": 0.6, "Rejoin EU": 0.6, "Other": 1.9, "SDP": 0.6, "Reform UK": 23.8, "Labour": 27.8, "Conservative": 18.9, "Liberal Democrat": 10.6, "TUSC": 0.6, "Green": 14.7 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-enfield", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Enfield", "subject_id": "enfield", "region": "Greater London", "council_type": "london_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 4.6, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Independent": 0.6, "Reform UK": 24.1, "Labour": 28.0, "Haringey Socialist Alliance": 0.1, "Conservative": 18.8, "Christian Peoples Alliance": 0.6, "Liberal Democrat": 11.2, "TUSC": 1.0, "Communist League Election Campaign": 0.5, "Green": 15.1 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-greenwich", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Greenwich", "subject_id": "greenwich", "region": "Greater London", "council_type": "london_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 7.4, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Reform UK": 26.3, "Independent": 0.6, "The Official Monster Raving Loony Party": 0.6, "Green": 14.0, "Labour": 31.3, "Your Party": 0.6, "Conservative": 18.2, "Liberal Democrat": 8.3 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-hackney", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Hackney", "subject_id": "hackney", "region": "Greater London", "council_type": "london_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_confidence": "NOC", "predicted_margin_pp": 10.5, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Independent": 0.6, "Reform UK": 24.7, "Labour": 35.2, "Conservative": 8.1, "Liberal Democrat": 10.9, "TUSC": 0.9, "Green": 19.6 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "Green", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-hammersmith-and-fulham", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Hammersmith and Fulham", "subject_id": "hammersmith-and-fulham", "region": "Greater London", "council_type": "london_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_confidence": "NOC", "predicted_margin_pp": 4.5, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Independent": 0.6, "Reform UK": 22.7, "Labour": 27.2, "Conservative": 21.8, "Liberal Democrat": 13.4, "Green": 14.2 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-haringey", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Haringey", "subject_id": "haringey", "region": "Greater London", "council_type": "london_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_confidence": "NOC", "predicted_margin_pp": 10.3, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Independent": 0.6, "Liberal Democrat": 15.8, "Reform UK": 21.7, "Labour": 32.0, "Conservative": 8.2, "Christian Peoples Alliance": 0.6, "Haringey Socialist Alliance": 0.6, "TUSC": 1.0, "Green": 19.4 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-harrow", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Harrow", "subject_id": "harrow", "region": "Greater London", "council_type": "london_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_confidence": "Lean", "predicted_margin_pp": 16.0, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Labour": 39.0, "Reform UK": 23.0, "Conservative": 17.0, "Liberal Democrat": 9.0, "Green": 7.0, "Independent": 3.0, "Other": 2.0 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "Conservative", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-havering", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Havering", "subject_id": "havering", "region": "Greater London", "council_type": "london_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Conservative", "predicted_winner": "Reform UK", "predicted_confidence": "Lean", "predicted_margin_pp": 5.4, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Reform UK": 29.7, "Conservative": 24.3, "Labour": 17.3, "Green": 10.6, "Liberal Democrat": 6.1, "Havering Residents Association": 9.5, "Independent": 1.9, "Other": 0.6 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "Reform UK", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-hillingdon", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Hillingdon", "subject_id": "hillingdon", "region": "Greater London", "council_type": "london_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Conservative", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_confidence": "NOC", "predicted_margin_pp": 0.1, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Independent": 0.6, "Other": 1.6, "UKIP": 0.6, "SDP": 0.6, "Reform UK": 25.3, "Labour": 25.2, "Conservative": 25.0, "Liberal Democrat": 9.4, "TUSC": 0.6, "Green": 11.2 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "Conservative", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-hounslow", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Hounslow", "subject_id": "hounslow", "region": "Greater London", "council_type": "london_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_confidence": "NOC", "predicted_margin_pp": 3.9, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Other": 2.3, "Reform UK": 23.8, "Independent": 0.6, "Green": 13.4, "TUSC": 0.6, "Labour": 27.7, "Conservative": 19.9, "Liberal Democrat": 11.7 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-islington", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Islington", "subject_id": "islington", "region": "Greater London", "council_type": "london_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 16.7, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Independent": 0.6, "National Housing Party United Kingdom (National Housing Party No More Refugees)": 0.6, "SDP": 0.6, "Reform UK": 13.8, "Labour": 34.6, "Conservative": 7.6, "Christian Peoples Alliance": 0.6, "Liberal Democrat": 18.5, "Green": 23.0 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-kensington-and-chelsea", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Kensington and Chelsea", "subject_id": "kensington-and-chelsea", "region": "Greater London", "council_type": "london_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Conservative", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_confidence": "NOC", "predicted_margin_pp": 2.3, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Reform UK": 22.6, "Independent": 0.6, "Green": 10.9, "Labour": 23.6, "Conservative": 25.9, "Liberal Democrat": 16.3 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "Conservative", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-kingston-upon-thames", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Kingston upon Thames", "subject_id": "kingston-upon-thames", "region": "Greater London", "council_type": "london_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Liberal Democrat", "predicted_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "predicted_confidence": "Lean", "predicted_margin_pp": 0.0, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Other": 0.7, "Reform UK": 14.6, "Independent": 0.6, "Heritage": 0.6, "Green": 14.9, "The Official Monster Raving Loony Party (Official Monster Raving Loony Party)": 0.6, "Labour": 15.2, "Conservative": 19.1, "Liberal Democrat": 33.7 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-lambeth", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Lambeth", "subject_id": "lambeth", "region": "Greater London", "council_type": "london_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_confidence": "NOC", "predicted_margin_pp": 11.9, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Independent": 0.5, "SDP": 0.5, "Reform UK": 20.2, "Labour": 33.1, "Christian Peoples Alliance": 0.5, "Conservative": 7.5, "Liberal Democrat": 14.8, "The Socialist Party of Great Britain (The Socialist Party (GB))": 0.5, "TUSC": 1.2, "Green": 21.2 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-lewisham", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Lewisham", "subject_id": "lewisham", "region": "Greater London", "council_type": "london_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_confidence": "NOC", "predicted_margin_pp": 11.0, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Independent": 0.5, "Your Party": 0.5, "Climate Party": 0.5, "The Motoring Party": 0.5, "Reform UK": 20.3, "Labour": 33.9, "Communist": 0.5, "Christian Peoples Alliance": 0.5, "Conservative": 7.0, "Liberal Democrat": 12.3, "TUSC": 0.5, "Green": 22.9 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "Green", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-merton", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Merton", "subject_id": "merton", "region": "Greater London", "council_type": "london_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 8.2, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Other": 9.1, "Animal Welfare": 0.6, "Reform UK": 14.6, "Independent": 9.1, "Green": 13.5, "Labour": 24.1, "Conservative": 14.9, "Liberal Democrat": 13.7, "Libertarian Party": 0.6 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-newham", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Newham", "subject_id": "newham", "region": "Greater London", "council_type": "london_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 19.7, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Other": 2.5, "Communities United Party": 0.5, "Reform UK": 24.1, "Independent": 0.5, "Green": 14.2, "TUSC": 0.8, "Workers Party": 0.5, "Labour": 42.0, "Conservative": 5.2, "Liberal Democrat": 9.1, "Christian Peoples Alliance": 0.5 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-redbridge", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Redbridge", "subject_id": "redbridge", "region": "Greater London", "council_type": "london_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 6.5, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Havering Residents Association (Havering Residents Association - Rush Green / Crowlands)": 0.3, "Havering Residents Association (Havering Residents Association - South Hornchurch)": 0.3, "Reform UK": 21.9, "Harold Wood Hill Park Residents Association": 0.3, "Hornchurch Residents Association": 0.3, "Green": 14.7, "Labour": 27.1, "Your Party": 0.0, "Havering Residents Association (Havering Residents Association - Havering - atte-Bower)": 0.3, "Christian Peoples Alliance": 0.0, "Havering Residents Association (Havering Residents Association - Marshalls/Rise Park)": 0.3, "Havering Residents Association (Havering Residents Association - Romford)": 0.3, "TUSC": 0.2, "Redbridge Trade Union Party": 0.5, "Havering Residents Association (Havering Residents Association - Squirrels Heath)": 0.3, "Havering Residents Association (Havering Residents Association - Harold Hill)": 0.3, "Havering Residents Association (Havering Residents Association - Emerson Park)": 0.3, "Independent": 0.9, "Havering Residents Association (Havering Residents Association - Beam Park)": 0.3, "Havering Residents Association (Havering Residents Association - Mawneys)": 0.3, "Conservative": 16.4, "Other": 2.3, "Communities United Party": 0.0, "Upminster and Cranham Residents Association": 0.3, "Havering Residents Association": 0.3, "Workers Party": 0.0, "Liberal Democrat": 11.5, "Havering Residents Association (Havering Residents Association - Rainham/Wennington)": 0.3 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-richmond-upon-thames", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Richmond upon Thames", "subject_id": "richmond-upon-thames", "region": "Greater London", "council_type": "london_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Liberal Democrat", "predicted_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "predicted_confidence": "Lean", "predicted_margin_pp": 0.0, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Reform UK": 17.2, "Independent": 0.6, "Green": 14.2, "Labour": 13.7, "Conservative": 17.4, "Liberal Democrat": 37.0 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-southwark", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Southwark", "subject_id": "southwark", "region": "Greater London", "council_type": "london_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_confidence": "NOC", "predicted_margin_pp": 10.8, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Reform UK": 23.4, "Independent": 0.6, "Green": 19.1, "Build (Build - Homes, Infrastructure, A Future)": 0.6, "Labour": 34.2, "Conservative": 7.6, "Liberal Democrat": 13.8, "Communist League Election Campaign (Communist League)": 0.6 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-sutton", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Sutton", "subject_id": "sutton", "region": "Greater London", "council_type": "london_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Liberal Democrat", "predicted_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "predicted_confidence": "Lean", "predicted_margin_pp": 0.0, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Independent": 0.6, "Other": 0.5, "Reform UK": 21.4, "Labour": 12.7, "The Christian Party Christian Peoples Alliance": 0.6, "Conservative": 16.7, "Liberal Democrat": 33.0, "Green": 14.4 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-tower-hamlets", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Tower Hamlets", "subject_id": "tower-hamlets", "region": "Greater London", "council_type": "london_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 13.8, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Forward Party (The Forward Party)": 0.5, "Aspire": 0.9, "Independent": 0.5, "Other": 2.6, "Reform UK": 22.8, "Labour": 33.9, "Conservative": 6.8, "Liberal Democrat": 13.1, "TUSC": 0.9, "Green": 17.9 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-waltham-forest", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Waltham Forest", "subject_id": "waltham-forest", "region": "Greater London", "council_type": "london_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_confidence": "NOC", "predicted_margin_pp": 8.0, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Other": 0.9, "Reform UK": 21.6, "Independent": 0.6, "Green": 22.1, "TUSC": 1.0, "Labour": 30.1, "Your Party": 0.6, "Conservative": 6.7, "Liberal Democrat": 16.3 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "Green", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-wandsworth", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Wandsworth", "subject_id": "wandsworth", "region": "Greater London", "council_type": "london_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_confidence": "NOC", "predicted_margin_pp": 5.2, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Independent": 0.6, "Reform UK": 20.6, "Labour": 27.6, "Conservative": 22.4, "Liberal Democrat": 13.1, "TUSC": 1.0, "Green": 14.6 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-westminster", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Westminster", "subject_id": "westminster", "region": "Greater London", "council_type": "london_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_confidence": "NOC", "predicted_margin_pp": 0.7, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Other": 0.6, "Reform UK": 22.4, "Independent": 0.6, "Green": 13.8, "Workers Party": 0.6, "Labour": 23.1, "Conservative": 20.9, "Liberal Democrat": 17.8 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "Conservative", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-gateshead", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Gateshead", "subject_id": "gateshead", "region": "North East", "council_type": "metropolitan_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Reform UK", "predicted_confidence": "Lean", "predicted_margin_pp": 1.4, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Party Of Women": 0.1, "Communist": 0.1, "Reform UK": 30.4, "Independent": 0.6, "Green": 12.0, "Conservative": 12.6, "Save Us Now": 0.5, "TUSC": 1.6, "Labour": 31.8, "Imagine": 0.1, "Liberal Democrat": 10.2 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "Reform UK", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-hartlepool", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Hartlepool", "subject_id": "hartlepool", "region": "North East", "council_type": "unitary_authorities", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_confidence": "NOC", "predicted_margin_pp": 1.8, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Independent": 0.7, "Reform UK": 31.4, "Labour": 33.2, "Conservative": 16.8, "Liberal Democrat": 7.6, "Green": 10.2 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-newcastle-upon-tyne", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Newcastle upon Tyne", "subject_id": "newcastle-upon-tyne", "region": "North East", "council_type": "metropolitan_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 6.8, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Party Of Women": 0.5, "Communist": 0.5, "Reform UK": 28.1, "Independent": 0.6, "Green": 13.3, "Conservative": 12.7, "Save Us Now": 0.1, "TUSC": 1.5, "Labour": 31.9, "Imagine": 0.5, "Liberal Democrat": 10.2 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-north-tyneside", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "North Tyneside", "subject_id": "north-tyneside", "region": "North East", "council_type": "metropolitan_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_confidence": "NOC", "predicted_margin_pp": 0.1, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Independent": 0.6, "Workers Party": 0.6, "SDP": 0.6, "Reform UK": 30.0, "Labour": 29.9, "Conservative": 19.7, "Liberal Democrat": 7.4, "Green": 11.2 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-south-tyneside", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "South Tyneside", "subject_id": "south-tyneside", "region": "North East", "council_type": "metropolitan_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_confidence": "NOC", "predicted_margin_pp": 0.0, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Independent": 1.5, "Reform UK": 31.1, "Labour": 31.1, "Conservative": 19.4, "Liberal Democrat": 6.4, "Green": 10.5 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "Reform UK", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-sunderland", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Sunderland", "subject_id": "sunderland", "region": "North East", "council_type": "metropolitan_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Reform UK", "predicted_confidence": "Lean", "predicted_margin_pp": 0.5, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Reform UK": 31.4, "Independent": 0.6, "Green": 9.4, "Save Us Now": 0.1, "TUSC": 0.4, "Labour": 31.9, "Conservative": 14.3, "Liberal Democrat": 11.9 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "Reform UK", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-blackburn-with-darwen", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Blackburn with Darwen", "subject_id": "blackburn-with-darwen", "region": "North West", "council_type": "unitary_authorities", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_confidence": "Lean", "predicted_margin_pp": 13.0, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Labour": 38.0, "Reform UK": 25.0, "Conservative": 15.0, "Liberal Democrat": 7.0, "Green": 8.0, "Independent": 4.0, "Other": 3.0 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-bolton", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Bolton", "subject_id": "bolton", "region": "North West", "council_type": "metropolitan_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_confidence": "Lean", "predicted_margin_pp": 1.5, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Independent": 0.7, "Workers Party": 0.0, "Other": 0.9, "Your Party": 0.0, "Liberal Democrat": 6.8, "SDP": 0.0, "Farnworth and Kearsley First Party": 0.6, "Labour": 32.2, "Reform UK": 30.7, "Conservative": 16.8, "Advance UK": 0.6, "TUSC": 0.6, "Green": 10.1 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-burnley", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Burnley", "subject_id": "burnley", "region": "North West", "council_type": "district_councils", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_confidence": "Lean", "predicted_margin_pp": 1.0, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Independent": 0.7, "Other": 0.4, "Reform UK": 31.0, "Labour": 32.0, "Conservative": 18.0, "Liberal Democrat": 7.4, "Green": 10.5 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-bury", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Bury", "subject_id": "bury", "region": "North West", "council_type": "metropolitan_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_confidence": "Lean", "predicted_margin_pp": 1.0, "vote_shares_predicted": { "English Democrats": 0.6, "Communist": 0.6, "Reform UK": 28.9, "Together for Bury": 0.6, "Independent": 1.0, "Green": 10.9, "Radcliffe First": 0.6, "Workers Party": 0.6, "Labour": 29.9, "Conservative": 18.7, "Liberal Democrat": 7.5 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-chorley", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Chorley", "subject_id": "chorley", "region": "North West", "council_type": "district_councils", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_confidence": "Lean", "predicted_margin_pp": 2.0, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Independent": 0.6, "Reform UK": 29.7, "Labour": 31.7, "Conservative": 19.2, "Liberal Democrat": 8.6, "TUSC": 0.6, "Green": 9.6 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-halton", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Halton", "subject_id": "halton", "region": "North West", "council_type": "unitary_authorities", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_confidence": "Lean", "predicted_margin_pp": 6.2, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Reform UK": 27.5, "Independent": 0.6, "Green": 11.4, "Labour": 33.7, "Conservative": 16.9, "Liberal Democrat": 9.2, "Libertarian Party": 0.6 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-hyndburn", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Hyndburn", "subject_id": "hyndburn", "region": "North West", "council_type": "district_councils", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_confidence": "NOC", "predicted_margin_pp": 0.0, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Other": 0.5, "Reform UK": 32.6, "Independent": 0.9, "Green": 14.2, "Labour": 30.6, "Conservative": 21.1 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-knowsley", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Knowsley", "subject_id": "knowsley", "region": "North West", "council_type": "metropolitan_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_confidence": "Lean", "predicted_margin_pp": 12.1, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Reform UK": 25.6, "Independent": 0.6, "Green": 11.6, "Labour": 37.7, "Conservative": 16.8, "Liberal Democrat": 7.7 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-manchester", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Manchester", "subject_id": "manchester", "region": "North West", "council_type": "metropolitan_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_confidence": "Lean", "predicted_margin_pp": 9.5, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Independent": 0.5, "Workers Party": 0.5, "Other": 0.8, "Your Party": 0.1, "The Official Monster Raving Loony Party": 0.1, "Liberal Democrat": 8.0, "SDP": 0.4, "Communist League Election Campaign (Communist League)": 0.4, "Reform UK": 23.6, "Labour": 33.1, "Communist": 0.4, "Conservative": 10.8, "Advance UK": 0.1, "TUSC": 0.8, "Green": 20.3 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-oldham", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Oldham", "subject_id": "oldham", "region": "North West", "council_type": "metropolitan_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_confidence": "Lean", "predicted_margin_pp": 2.2, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Other": 1.3, "The Oldham Group Party": 0.6, "Reform UK": 29.9, "Independent": 0.6, "Green": 9.7, "Workers Party": 0.6, "Labour": 32.1, "Conservative": 17.4, "Liberal Democrat": 6.7, "National Housing Party United Kingdom (National Housing Party Oldham People First)": 1.0 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-pendle", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Pendle", "subject_id": "pendle", "region": "North West", "council_type": "district_councils", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Reform UK", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 4.2, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Other": 1.7, "Reform UK": 29.4, "Independent": 2.3, "Green": 10.0, "Labour": 16.5, "Conservative": 17.3, "Liberal Democrat": 22.9 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-preston", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Preston", "subject_id": "preston", "region": "North West", "council_type": "district_councils", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_confidence": "NOC", "predicted_margin_pp": 0.0, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Other": 1.0, "Reform UK": 30.3, "Independent": 0.7, "Green": 11.8, "TUSC": 0.7, "Labour": 30.3, "Conservative": 16.1, "Liberal Democrat": 9.1 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-rochdale", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Rochdale", "subject_id": "rochdale", "region": "North West", "council_type": "metropolitan_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_confidence": "Lean", "predicted_margin_pp": 1.5, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Independent": 0.9, "Workers Party": 0.8, "Other": 0.8, "Liberal Democrat": 6.8, "Farnworth and Kearsley First Party": 0.1, "Labour": 31.6, "Reform UK": 30.1, "Conservative": 18.4, "Advance UK": 0.6, "TUSC": 0.1, "Green": 9.7 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-salford", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Salford", "subject_id": "salford", "region": "North West", "council_type": "metropolitan_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_confidence": "Lean", "predicted_margin_pp": 4.4, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Independent": 0.5, "Workers Party": 0.0, "Other": 0.1, "Your Party": 0.4, "Liberal Democrat": 11.2, "SDP": 0.1, "Communist League Election Campaign (Communist League)": 0.0, "Farnworth and Kearsley First Party": 0.0, "Labour": 30.7, "Communist": 0.0, "Reform UK": 26.3, "Conservative": 15.8, "Advance UK": 0.4, "TUSC": 0.5, "Green": 13.9 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-sefton", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Sefton", "subject_id": "sefton", "region": "North West", "council_type": "metropolitan_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_confidence": "Lean", "predicted_margin_pp": 1.3, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Independent": 0.6, "Formby Residents Action Group": 0.6, "The Official Monster Raving Loony Party": 0.6, "Reform UK": 27.1, "Labour": 28.4, "Conservative": 20.1, "Liberal Democrat": 9.8, "TUSC": 1.0, "Green": 11.8 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-st-helens", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "St Helens", "subject_id": "st-helens", "region": "North West", "council_type": "metropolitan_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_confidence": "Lean", "predicted_margin_pp": 1.4, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Reform UK": 29.2, "Independent": 0.7, "Green": 12.3, "Labour": 30.6, "Conservative": 17.8, "Liberal Democrat": 9.3 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "Reform UK", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-stockport", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Stockport", "subject_id": "stockport", "region": "North West", "council_type": "metropolitan_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_confidence": "NOC", "predicted_margin_pp": 1.1, "vote_shares_predicted": { "SDP": 0.1, "Advance UK": 0.1, "Party Of Women": 0.5, "Reform UK": 26.1, "Independent": 0.9, "Green": 9.8, "TUSC": 0.5, "Labour": 18.4, "Edgeley Community Association": 0.5, "Conservative": 17.6, "Liberal Democrat": 25.0, "Your Party": 0.5 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-tameside", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Tameside", "subject_id": "tameside", "region": "North West", "council_type": "metropolitan_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_confidence": "NOC", "predicted_margin_pp": 0.0, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Independent": 0.6, "Workers Party": 0.6, "Other": 0.2, "Your Party": 0.5, "The Official Monster Raving Loony Party": 0.5, "SDP": 0.1, "Communist League Election Campaign (Communist League)": 0.1, "Reform UK": 28.9, "Labour": 28.9, "Communist": 0.1, "Conservative": 16.1, "Liberal Democrat": 8.9, "TUSC": 0.2, "Green": 14.3 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-trafford", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Trafford", "subject_id": "trafford", "region": "North West", "council_type": "metropolitan_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_confidence": "Lean", "predicted_margin_pp": 0.7, "vote_shares_predicted": { "SDP": 0.5, "Advance UK": 0.5, "Party Of Women": 0.1, "Reform UK": 24.2, "Independent": 0.7, "Green": 11.7, "TUSC": 0.1, "Labour": 24.9, "Edgeley Community Association": 0.1, "Conservative": 19.4, "Liberal Democrat": 17.6, "Your Party": 0.1 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-west-lancashire", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "West Lancashire", "subject_id": "west-lancashire", "region": "North West", "council_type": "district_councils", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_confidence": "Lean", "predicted_margin_pp": 3.0, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Our West Lancashire": 0.6, "Reform UK": 29.4, "Green": 9.6, "Labour": 32.4, "Your Party": 0.6, "Conservative": 19.2, "Liberal Democrat": 8.2 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-wigan", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Wigan", "subject_id": "wigan", "region": "North West", "council_type": "metropolitan_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_confidence": "Lean", "predicted_margin_pp": 1.3, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Independent": 0.6, "Other": 0.1, "Your Party": 0.1, "Liberal Democrat": 6.5, "SDP": 0.5, "Farnworth and Kearsley First Party": 0.1, "Labour": 33.9, "Reform UK": 32.6, "Conservative": 15.6, "Advance UK": 0.1, "TUSC": 0.1, "Green": 9.8 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-adur", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Adur", "subject_id": "adur", "region": "South East", "council_type": "district_councils", "incumbent_before": "Conservative", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_confidence": "NOC", "predicted_margin_pp": 2.7, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Reform UK": 30.5, "Independent": 1.1, "Green": 12.5, "Labour": 11.3, "Conservative": 27.8, "Liberal Democrat": 16.8 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-basingstoke-and-deane", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Basingstoke and Deane", "subject_id": "basingstoke-and-deane", "region": "South East", "council_type": "district_councils", "incumbent_before": "Conservative", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_confidence": "NOC", "predicted_margin_pp": 0.0, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Independent": 0.7, "The All In Party": 0.7, "Reform UK": 27.4, "Labour": 8.3, "Conservative": 27.5, "Liberal Democrat": 22.8, "Green": 12.6 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-cherwell", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Cherwell", "subject_id": "cherwell", "region": "South East", "council_type": "district_councils", "incumbent_before": "Conservative", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_confidence": "NOC", "predicted_margin_pp": 0.0, "vote_shares_predicted": { "SDP": 0.7, "Animal Welfare": 0.7, "Reform UK": 26.8, "Independent": 0.7, "Green": 12.6, "Labour": 9.6, "Conservative": 27.6, "Liberal Democrat": 21.3 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-crawley", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Crawley", "subject_id": "crawley", "region": "South East", "council_type": "district_councils", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_confidence": "NOC", "predicted_margin_pp": 0.0, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Other": 0.2, "Reform UK": 28.5, "Independent": 0.7, "Green": 11.8, "TUSC": 0.7, "Labour": 15.1, "Conservative": 26.7, "Liberal Democrat": 16.2 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-east-surrey", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "East Surrey", "subject_id": "east-surrey", "region": "South East", "council_type": "unitary_authorities", "incumbent_before": "Conservative", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_confidence": "NOC", "predicted_margin_pp": 11.3, "vote_shares_predicted": { "SDP": 0.6, "Nork & Tattenhams Residents' Associations": 0.6, "Reform UK": 22.1, "Independent": 0.6, "Heritage": 0.6, "Green": 12.6, "Residents Associations of Epsom and Ewell": 0.6, "The Molesey Residents Association": 0.6, "Hinchley Wood Residents (Hinchley Wood Residents - Weston, Long Ditton)": 0.6, "Labour": 5.7, "Thames Ditton / Weston Green Residents' Association (Thames Ditton Residents' Association)": 0.6, "The Walton Society": 0.6, "Liberal Democrat": 20.7, "Conservative": 33.4 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-east-sussex", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "East Sussex", "subject_id": "east-sussex", "region": "South East", "council_type": "county_councils", "incumbent_before": "Conservative", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_confidence": "NOC", "predicted_margin_pp": 0.4, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Independent": 0.6, "UKIP": 0.6, "Liberal Democrat": 17.0, "Reform UK": 30.5, "Labour": 6.5, "Conservative": 30.9, "Heritage": 0.6, "TUSC": 0.6, "Green": 12.6 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-eastleigh", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Eastleigh", "subject_id": "eastleigh", "region": "South East", "council_type": "district_councils", "incumbent_before": "Liberal Democrat", "predicted_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "predicted_confidence": "Lean", "predicted_margin_pp": 0.0, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Reform UK": 25.0, "Independent": 0.7, "Green": 12.7, "TUSC": 0.7, "Labour": 10.8, "Conservative": 20.4, "Liberal Democrat": 29.8 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-fareham", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Fareham", "subject_id": "fareham", "region": "South East", "council_type": "district_councils", "incumbent_before": "Conservative", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_confidence": "NOC", "predicted_margin_pp": 0.0, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Reform UK": 29.5, "Labour": 11.2, "Conservative": 29.5, "Liberal Democrat": 17.1, "Green": 12.7 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "Conservative", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-gosport", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Gosport", "subject_id": "gosport", "region": "South East", "council_type": "district_councils", "incumbent_before": "Conservative", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_confidence": "NOC", "predicted_margin_pp": 4.9, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Reform UK": 29.8, "Labour": 13.6, "Conservative": 24.9, "Liberal Democrat": 20.6, "Green": 11.1 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-hampshire", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Hampshire", "subject_id": "hampshire", "region": "South East", "council_type": "county_councils", "incumbent_before": "Conservative", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_confidence": "NOC", "predicted_margin_pp": 4.9, "vote_shares_predicted": { "SDP": 0.6, "Reform UK": 24.3, "Whitehill & Bordon Community Party": 0.6, "Libertarian Party (Libertarian Party UK)": 1.0, "Independent": 0.6, "The All In Party": 0.6, "The Official Monster Raving Loony Party": 0.6, "Green": 13.4, "Wessex Regionalists": 0.6, "Labour": 8.1, "Your Party": 0.6, "Conservative": 29.2, "Liberal Democrat": 19.1, "Community Campaign (Hart)": 0.6 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-hart", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Hart", "subject_id": "hart", "region": "South East", "council_type": "district_councils", "incumbent_before": "Conservative", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_confidence": "NOC", "predicted_margin_pp": 4.0, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Reform UK": 26.3, "The Official Monster Raving Loony Party": 0.6, "Green": 13.7, "Labour": 8.2, "Conservative": 30.3, "Liberal Democrat": 20.4, "Community Campaign (Hart)": 0.6 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-hastings", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Hastings", "subject_id": "hastings", "region": "South East", "council_type": "district_councils", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_confidence": "NOC", "predicted_margin_pp": 10.5, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Reform UK": 25.0, "Libertarian Party (Libertarian Party UK)": 0.6, "Independent": 0.6, "Green": 35.5, "Labour": 6.0, "Conservative": 23.3, "Liberal Democrat": 9.0 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "Green", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-havant", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Havant", "subject_id": "havant", "region": "South East", "council_type": "district_councils", "incumbent_before": "Conservative", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_confidence": "NOC", "predicted_margin_pp": 9.0, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Reform UK": 30.8, "Labour": 20.4, "Conservative": 21.8, "Liberal Democrat": 15.7, "Green": 11.3 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-isle-of-wight", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Isle of Wight", "subject_id": "isle-of-wight", "region": "South East", "council_type": "unitary_authorities", "incumbent_before": "Conservative", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_confidence": "NOC", "predicted_margin_pp": 2.8, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Reform UK": 29.9, "Vectis Party": 1.1, "Independent": 2.3, "Green": 12.6, "Labour": 11.9, "Conservative": 27.1, "Liberal Democrat": 15.2 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-milton-keynes", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Milton Keynes", "subject_id": "milton-keynes", "region": "South East", "council_type": "unitary_authorities", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_confidence": "NOC", "predicted_margin_pp": 2.6, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Independent": 0.6, "Workers Party": 0.6, "Liberal Democrat": 24.2, "Reform UK": 27.4, "Labour": 10.7, "Conservative": 24.8, "Heritage": 0.6, "Green": 11.0 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-oxford", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Oxford", "subject_id": "oxford", "region": "South East", "council_type": "district_councils", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_confidence": "NOC", "predicted_margin_pp": 0.0, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Independent": 0.7, "Workers Party": 0.7, "Other": 0.2, "Reform UK": 15.4, "Labour": 7.5, "Conservative": 25.6, "Liberal Democrat": 29.6, "TUSC": 0.7, "Green": 19.6 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-portsmouth", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Portsmouth", "subject_id": "portsmouth", "region": "South East", "council_type": "unitary_authorities", "incumbent_before": "Liberal Democrat", "predicted_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "predicted_confidence": "Lean", "predicted_margin_pp": 0.0, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Independent": 0.7, "Liberal Democrat": 20.5, "Reform UK": 29.2, "Labour": 13.8, "Conservative": 23.9, "Heritage": 0.7, "Green": 11.2 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-reading", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Reading", "subject_id": "reading", "region": "South East", "council_type": "unitary_authorities", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_confidence": "NOC", "predicted_margin_pp": 2.0, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Independent": 0.7, "Other": 0.8, "Liberal Democrat": 27.2, "SDP": 0.7, "Reform UK": 18.7, "Labour": 13.9, "Conservative": 25.2, "The Liberal Party (Your Local Liberal Party)": 0.7, "TUSC": 0.7, "Green": 11.5 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-rushmoor", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Rushmoor", "subject_id": "rushmoor", "region": "South East", "council_type": "district_councils", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_confidence": "NOC", "predicted_margin_pp": 0.7, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Other": 0.2, "Reform UK": 28.3, "Independent": 0.6, "British Democratic Party (British Democrats)": 0.6, "Green": 12.3, "TUSC": 0.6, "Labour": 13.2, "Conservative": 27.6, "Liberal Democrat": 16.6 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-southampton", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Southampton", "subject_id": "southampton", "region": "South East", "council_type": "unitary_authorities", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_confidence": "NOC", "predicted_margin_pp": 0.6, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Reform UK": 27.8, "Independent": 0.6, "Green": 9.7, "TUSC": 1.0, "Labour": 28.4, "Conservative": 17.6, "Liberal Democrat": 14.8 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-tunbridge-wells", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Tunbridge Wells", "subject_id": "tunbridge-wells", "region": "South East", "council_type": "district_councils", "incumbent_before": "Conservative", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_confidence": "NOC", "predicted_margin_pp": 3.4, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Independent": 0.7, "English Democrats": 0.7, "Reform UK": 24.7, "Labour": 7.2, "Conservative": 28.1, "Liberal Democrat": 23.6, "Tunbridge Wells Alliance": 1.4, "Green": 13.5 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-west-oxfordshire", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "West Oxfordshire", "subject_id": "west-oxfordshire", "region": "South East", "council_type": "district_councils", "incumbent_before": "Liberal Democrat", "predicted_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "predicted_confidence": "Lean", "predicted_margin_pp": 0.0, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Independent": 0.7, "Reform UK": 25.4, "Labour": 5.0, "Conservative": 28.6, "Liberal Democrat": 28.8, "Green": 11.4 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-west-surrey", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "West Surrey", "subject_id": "west-surrey", "region": "South East", "council_type": "unitary_authorities", "incumbent_before": "Conservative", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_confidence": "NOC", "predicted_margin_pp": 10.0, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Reform UK": 21.9, "Farnham Residents": 0.6, "Independent": 0.6, "Heritage": 0.6, "Green": 12.4, "The Official Monster Raving Loony Party (Official Monster Raving Loony Party)": 0.6, "Residents for Guildford and Villages": 0.6, "TUSC": 0.6, "Labour": 9.1, "Conservative": 31.9, "Liberal Democrat": 20.4, "The Peace Party - Non-violence, Justice, Environment": 0.6 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-west-sussex", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "West Sussex", "subject_id": "west-sussex", "region": "South East", "council_type": "county_councils", "incumbent_before": "Conservative", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_confidence": "NOC", "predicted_margin_pp": 5.1, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Independent": 0.6, "The Official Monster Raving Loony Party (Official Monster Raving Loony Party)": 0.6, "Local Alliance": 0.6, "English Democrats": 0.6, "The Peace Party - Non-violence, Justice, Environment": 0.6, "Reform UK": 24.9, "Labour": 6.9, "Pirate Party UK (UK Pirate Party)": 0.6, "Libertarian Party (Libertarian Party UK)": 0.6, "Conservative": 30.0, "Liberal Democrat": 20.8, "Patria": 0.6, "Green": 12.5 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-winchester", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Winchester", "subject_id": "winchester", "region": "South East", "council_type": "district_councils", "incumbent_before": "Liberal Democrat", "predicted_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "predicted_confidence": "Lean", "predicted_margin_pp": 0.0, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Reform UK": 22.4, "Independent": 1.1, "Green": 12.2, "Labour": 8.5, "Conservative": 25.9, "Liberal Democrat": 29.9 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-wokingham", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Wokingham", "subject_id": "wokingham", "region": "South East", "council_type": "unitary_authorities", "incumbent_before": "Liberal Democrat", "predicted_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "predicted_confidence": "Lean", "predicted_margin_pp": 0.0, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Independent": 0.6, "Reform UK": 24.2, "Labour": 5.5, "Conservative": 26.1, "Liberal Democrat": 31.1, "TUSC": 0.6, "Green": 11.8 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-worthing", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Worthing", "subject_id": "worthing", "region": "South East", "council_type": "district_councils", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_confidence": "NOC", "predicted_margin_pp": 0.5, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Reform UK": 28.2, "Labour": 17.1, "Conservative": 28.7, "Liberal Democrat": 13.8, "Green": 12.1 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-cheltenham", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Cheltenham", "subject_id": "cheltenham", "region": "South West", "council_type": "district_councils", "incumbent_before": "Liberal Democrat", "predicted_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "predicted_confidence": "Lean", "predicted_margin_pp": 0.0, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Christian Peoples Alliance (Christian Peoples Alliance - Supporting Traditional Marriage)": 0.6, "Liberal Democrat": 31.3, "Reform UK": 20.3, "Labour": 8.9, "Conservative": 24.0, "Heritage": 0.6, "TUSC": 0.6, "Green": 13.6 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-exeter", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Exeter", "subject_id": "exeter", "region": "South West", "council_type": "district_councils", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_confidence": "NOC", "predicted_margin_pp": 3.9, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Reform UK": 22.5, "Independent": 1.1, "Green": 12.8, "TUSC": 0.6, "Labour": 9.3, "Conservative": 24.9, "Liberal Democrat": 28.8 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-plymouth", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Plymouth", "subject_id": "plymouth", "region": "South West", "council_type": "unitary_authorities", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_confidence": "NOC", "predicted_margin_pp": 0.0, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Reform UK": 29.6, "Independent": 1.0, "Green": 8.9, "TUSC": 0.6, "Labour": 29.6, "Conservative": 21.4, "Liberal Democrat": 8.8 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-swindon", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Swindon", "subject_id": "swindon", "region": "South West", "council_type": "unitary_authorities", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_confidence": "NOC", "predicted_margin_pp": 3.8, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Reform UK": 30.3, "Green": 11.2, "TUSC": 0.7, "Labour": 26.5, "Conservative": 20.8, "Liberal Democrat": 10.5 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-birmingham", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Birmingham", "subject_id": "birmingham", "region": "West Midlands", "council_type": "metropolitan_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_confidence": "NOC", "predicted_margin_pp": 0.8, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Independent": 0.6, "Workers Party": 0.9, "Other": 1.8, "Your Party": 0.5, "Liberal Democrat": 10.6, "Coventry Citizens Party": 0.0, "SDP": 0.0, "Reform UK": 27.2, "Labour": 28.0, "Conservative": 16.8, "Advance UK": 0.0, "TUSC": 0.5, "Green": 13.0 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-cannock-chase", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Cannock Chase", "subject_id": "cannock-chase", "region": "West Midlands", "council_type": "district_councils", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_confidence": "NOC", "predicted_margin_pp": 0.0, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Reform UK": 33.5, "Independent": 0.9, "Green": 13.5, "TUSC": 0.9, "Labour": 27.1, "Conservative": 24.2 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-coventry", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Coventry", "subject_id": "coventry", "region": "West Midlands", "council_type": "metropolitan_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_confidence": "NOC", "predicted_margin_pp": 1.0, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Independent": 0.5, "Workers Party": 0.5, "Other": 0.7, "Your Party": 0.0, "Coventry Citizens Party": 0.5, "SDP": 0.5, "Reform UK": 30.4, "Labour": 29.4, "Conservative": 17.7, "Liberal Democrat": 8.4, "TUSC": 0.5, "Green": 10.8 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-dudley", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Dudley", "subject_id": "dudley", "region": "West Midlands", "council_type": "metropolitan_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Conservative", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_confidence": "NOC", "predicted_margin_pp": 8.9, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Other": 0.2, "Advance UK": 0.1, "Reform UK": 31.0, "Freedom Alliance": 0.6, "Independent": 0.6, "The Black Country Party": 0.6, "Green": 12.5, "Yeshua": 0.1, "TUSC": 0.9, "Labour": 21.1, "Conservative": 22.1, "Liberal Democrat": 9.6, "Libertarian Party": 0.6 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-newcastle-under-lyme", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Newcastle-under-Lyme", "subject_id": "newcastle-under-lyme", "region": "West Midlands", "council_type": "district_councils", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Reform UK", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 4.7, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Independent": 0.7, "Reform UK": 30.2, "Labour": 18.6, "Conservative": 23.8, "Liberal Democrat": 12.1, "TUSC": 0.7, "The Potteries Party (Potteries Party: Serving North Staffordshire)": 1.1, "Green": 12.8 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "Reform UK", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-nuneaton-and-bedworth", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Nuneaton and Bedworth", "subject_id": "nuneaton-and-bedworth", "region": "West Midlands", "council_type": "district_councils", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_confidence": "NOC", "predicted_margin_pp": 0.0, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Reform UK": 32.0, "Labour": 24.9, "Conservative": 21.0, "Liberal Democrat": 8.6, "TUSC": 1.1, "Green": 12.3 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-redditch", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Redditch", "subject_id": "redditch", "region": "West Midlands", "council_type": "district_councils", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_confidence": "NOC", "predicted_margin_pp": 1.6, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Reform UK": 31.6, "Labour": 30.0, "Conservative": 19.8, "Liberal Democrat": 7.9, "Green": 10.8 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-rugby", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Rugby", "subject_id": "rugby", "region": "West Midlands", "council_type": "district_councils", "incumbent_before": "Conservative", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_confidence": "NOC", "predicted_margin_pp": 0.0, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Reform UK": 30.3, "Labour": 24.1, "Conservative": 24.4, "Liberal Democrat": 9.8, "Green": 11.4 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-sandwell", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Sandwell", "subject_id": "sandwell", "region": "West Midlands", "council_type": "metropolitan_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_confidence": "Lean", "predicted_margin_pp": 15.0, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Labour": 39.0, "Reform UK": 24.0, "Conservative": 16.0, "Liberal Democrat": 9.0, "Green": 7.0, "Independent": 3.0, "Other": 2.0 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "Reform UK", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-solihull", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Solihull", "subject_id": "solihull", "region": "West Midlands", "council_type": "metropolitan_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Conservative", "predicted_winner": "Reform UK", "predicted_confidence": "Lean", "predicted_margin_pp": 0.1, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Independent": 0.7, "Workers Party": 0.1, "Other": 0.3, "Your Party": 0.1, "Coventry Citizens Party": 0.1, "SDP": 0.1, "Reform UK": 29.0, "Labour": 29.1, "Conservative": 21.1, "Liberal Democrat": 8.8, "TUSC": 0.1, "Green": 10.4 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-tamworth", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Tamworth", "subject_id": "tamworth", "region": "West Midlands", "council_type": "district_councils", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_confidence": "NOC", "predicted_margin_pp": 4.6, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Reform UK": 31.2, "Independent": 0.7, "Green": 11.3, "UKIP": 0.7, "Labour": 26.6, "Conservative": 21.0, "Liberal Democrat": 8.4 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-walsall", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Walsall", "subject_id": "walsall", "region": "West Midlands", "council_type": "metropolitan_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Conservative", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_confidence": "NOC", "predicted_margin_pp": 8.9, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Independent": 0.7, "Workers Party": 0.2, "Other": 1.1, "Your Party": 0.1, "Liberal Democrat": 10.8, "Reform UK": 30.8, "Labour": 20.6, "Conservative": 21.9, "Advance UK": 0.6, "TUSC": 0.1, "Green": 13.1 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "Reform UK", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-wolverhampton", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Wolverhampton", "subject_id": "wolverhampton", "region": "West Midlands", "council_type": "metropolitan_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_confidence": "Lean", "predicted_margin_pp": 13.0, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Labour": 38.0, "Reform UK": 25.0, "Conservative": 16.0, "Liberal Democrat": 8.0, "Green": 7.0, "Independent": 3.0, "Other": 3.0 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-barnsley", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Barnsley", "subject_id": "barnsley", "region": "Yorkshire and The Humber", "council_type": "metropolitan_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_confidence": "NOC", "predicted_margin_pp": 0.9, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Independent": 0.6, "English Democrats": 0.6, "SDP": 0.6, "Reform UK": 33.8, "Labour": 32.9, "Conservative": 15.3, "Liberal Democrat": 6.1, "TUSC": 0.6, "Green": 9.4 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "Reform UK", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-bradford", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Bradford", "subject_id": "bradford", "region": "Yorkshire and The Humber", "council_type": "metropolitan_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_confidence": "Lean", "predicted_margin_pp": 17.0, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Labour": 40.0, "Reform UK": 23.0, "Conservative": 14.0, "Green": 11.0, "Liberal Democrat": 8.0, "Independent": 2.0, "Other": 2.0 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-calderdale", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Calderdale", "subject_id": "calderdale", "region": "Yorkshire and The Humber", "council_type": "metropolitan_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Reform UK", "predicted_confidence": "Lean", "predicted_margin_pp": 1.6, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Independent": 0.6, "Community Alliance Kirklees": 0.1, "People's Alliance for Change and Equality": 0.1, "Workers Party": 0.5, "Other": 0.2, "The Official Monster Raving Loony Party": 0.5, "Reform UK": 30.0, "Labour": 31.6, "Conservative": 19.2, "Liberal Democrat": 7.2, "The Revolting Party (The Revolting Party. Join The Revolt)": 0.1, "Green": 9.8 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "Reform UK", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-kingston-upon-hull", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Kingston upon Hull", "subject_id": "kingston-upon-hull", "region": "Yorkshire and The Humber", "council_type": "unitary_authorities", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 6.8, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Reform UK": 29.2, "Labour": 33.0, "Conservative": 16.0, "Liberal Democrat": 12.0, "Green": 9.8 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-kirklees", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Kirklees", "subject_id": "kirklees", "region": "Yorkshire and The Humber", "council_type": "metropolitan_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_confidence": "NOC", "predicted_margin_pp": 0.0, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Independent": 0.6, "Community Alliance Kirklees": 0.5, "People's Alliance for Change and Equality": 0.5, "Workers Party": 0.1, "Other": 0.6, "English Democrats": 0.1, "The Official Monster Raving Loony Party": 0.1, "SDP": 0.1, "Reform UK": 29.9, "Labour": 31.2, "Conservative": 18.8, "Liberal Democrat": 7.1, "The Revolting Party (The Revolting Party. Join The Revolt)": 0.5, "TUSC": 0.1, "Green": 9.7 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-leeds", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Leeds", "subject_id": "leeds", "region": "Yorkshire and The Humber", "council_type": "metropolitan_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_confidence": "NOC", "predicted_margin_pp": 2.7, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Yorkshire Party": 0.5, "SDP": 0.5, "Other": 0.2, "Reform UK": 24.1, "Independent": 0.5, "The Official Monster Raving Loony Party": 0.4, "Heritage": 0.1, "Green": 19.3, "British Democratic Party (British Democrats)": 0.1, "UKIP": 0.5, "TUSC": 0.5, "Labour": 26.8, "Your Party": 0.4, "Conservative": 17.4, "Liberal Democrat": 8.6 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-north-east-lincolnshire", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "North East Lincolnshire", "subject_id": "north-east-lincolnshire", "region": "Yorkshire and The Humber", "council_type": "unitary_authorities", "incumbent_before": "Conservative", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_confidence": "NOC", "predicted_margin_pp": 0.0, "vote_shares_predicted": { "SDP": 0.7, "Reform UK": 33.3, "Independent": 0.7, "Green": 13.4, "TUSC": 0.7, "Labour": 18.8, "Conservative": 20.4, "Liberal Democrat": 11.2, "National Housing Party United Kingdom (National Housing Party Grimsby People First)": 0.7 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-sheffield", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Sheffield", "subject_id": "sheffield", "region": "Yorkshire and The Humber", "council_type": "metropolitan_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_confidence": "NOC", "predicted_margin_pp": 4.8, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Reform UK": 21.6, "Independent": 0.6, "Green": 21.4, "UKIP": 0.6, "TUSC": 0.6, "Labour": 26.4, "Conservative": 17.2, "Liberal Democrat": 11.6 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-2026-05-07-english-locals-council-wakefield", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "2026-05-07-english-locals", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Wakefield", "subject_id": "wakefield", "region": "Yorkshire and The Humber", "council_type": "metropolitan_boroughs", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Reform UK", "predicted_confidence": "Lean", "predicted_margin_pp": 2.7, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Yorkshire Party": 0.6, "SDP": 0.6, "Reform UK": 28.6, "Independent": 0.6, "The Official Monster Raving Loony Party": 0.1, "Green": 11.9, "British Democratic Party (British Democrats)": 0.5, "UKIP": 0.1, "TUSC": 0.6, "Labour": 31.3, "Your Party": 0.1, "Conservative": 17.1, "Liberal Democrat": 7.8 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-09T11:34:48+01:00", "predicted_at_git_commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "code_url": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm/tree/74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd/scripts/kpm2/" }, "note": "Backtest application of v15.1 to KPM-1 vote shares \u2014 published AFTER election. Future v15.1+ predictions will be pre-registered before event.", "is_backtest": true, "actual_winner": "Reform UK", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-byel-v1-byel-2026-04-30-malvern-hills-dc-tenbury", "kind": "uk_council_byelection", "election_id": "byel-2026-04-30-malvern-hills-dc-tenbury", "election_date": "2026-04-30", "subject": "Malvern Hills DC - Tenbury", "subject_council": "Malvern Hills DC", "subject_ward": "Tenbury", "region": "West Midlands", "incumbent_before": "Conservative", "predicted_winner": "Reform UK", "predicted_confidence": "Confident", "predicted_margin_pp": 27.48, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Reform UK": 50.94, "Conservative": 23.46, "Liberal Democrat": 12.22, "Green": 13.38 }, "vote_shares_last_result": { "Reform UK": 45.1, "Conservative": 30.3, "Liberal Democrat": 12.7, "Green": 12.0 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-10T21:10:00Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-byelection", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "49fca21295b485c251f2e6c86d40fbffb8a69385cd2a36c88b2eda90db05477f", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "note": "Engine built 2026-05-10, after these 12 events landed. Future by-elections will be pre-registered." }, "actual_winner": "Reform UK", "actual_at": "2026-04-30T22:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://www.aldc.org/2026/04/malvern-hills-dc-tenbury-30-april-2026-2/", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-mistool-byel-2026-04-30-malvern-hills-dc-tenbury", "kind": "uk_council_byelection", "election_id": "byel-2026-04-30-malvern-hills-dc-tenbury", "election_date": "2026-04-30", "subject": "Malvern Hills DC - Tenbury", "subject_council": "Malvern Hills DC", "subject_ward": "Tenbury", "region": "West Midlands", "incumbent_before": "Conservative", "predicted_winner": "Reform UK", "predicted_confidence": "Lean", "predicted_margin_pp": 32.19, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Reform UK": 52.82, "Conservative": 20.63, "Liberal Democrat": 12.67, "Green": 13.88 }, "vote_shares_last_result": { "Reform UK": 45.1, "Conservative": 30.3, "Liberal Democrat": 12.7, "Green": 12.0 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-10T21:10:00Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "wrong_tool": true, "note": "v15.1 is council-level methodology. Applied here only to demonstrate that it is the WRONG TOOL for single-seat by-elections. Use kpm-byelection-v1 for these. Empirical: v15.1 hits 5/12 = 41.7%, byel-v1 hits 9/12 = 75%." }, "actual_winner": "Reform UK", "actual_at": "2026-04-30T22:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://www.aldc.org/2026/04/malvern-hills-dc-tenbury-30-april-2026-2/", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-byel-v1-byel-2026-04-30-newport-tc-newport-south-telford-wrekin", "kind": "uk_council_byelection", "election_id": "byel-2026-04-30-newport-tc-newport-south-telford-wrekin", "election_date": "2026-04-30", "subject": "Newport TC - Newport South (Telford & Wrekin)", "subject_council": "Newport TC", "subject_ward": "Newport South (Telford & Wrekin)", "region": "West Midlands", "incumbent_before": "Unknown", "predicted_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 4.37, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Liberal Democrat": 34.37, "Conservative": 20.92, "Independent": 30.0, "Labour": 1.26, "Green": 13.45 }, "vote_shares_last_result": { "Liberal Democrat": 28.9, "Conservative": 26.2, "Independent": 25.1, "Labour": 11.1, "Green": 8.7 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-10T21:10:00Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-byelection", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "49fca21295b485c251f2e6c86d40fbffb8a69385cd2a36c88b2eda90db05477f", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "note": "Engine built 2026-05-10, after these 12 events landed. Future by-elections will be pre-registered." }, "actual_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "actual_at": "2026-04-30T22:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://www.aldc.org/2026/04/newport-tc-newport-south-telford-wrekin-30-april-2026/", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-mistool-byel-2026-04-30-newport-tc-newport-south-telford-wrekin", "kind": "uk_council_byelection", "election_id": "byel-2026-04-30-newport-tc-newport-south-telford-wrekin", "election_date": "2026-04-30", "subject": "Newport TC - Newport South (Telford & Wrekin)", "subject_council": "Newport TC", "subject_ward": "Newport South (Telford & Wrekin)", "region": "West Midlands", "incumbent_before": "Unknown", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_confidence": "NOC", "predicted_margin_pp": 4.37, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Liberal Democrat": 34.37, "Conservative": 20.92, "Independent": 30.0, "Labour": 1.26, "Green": 13.45 }, "vote_shares_last_result": { "Liberal Democrat": 28.9, "Conservative": 26.2, "Independent": 25.1, "Labour": 11.1, "Green": 8.7 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-10T21:10:00Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "wrong_tool": true, "note": "v15.1 is council-level methodology. Applied here only to demonstrate that it is the WRONG TOOL for single-seat by-elections. Use kpm-byelection-v1 for these. Empirical: v15.1 hits 5/12 = 41.7%, byel-v1 hits 9/12 = 75%." }, "actual_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "actual_at": "2026-04-30T22:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://www.aldc.org/2026/04/newport-tc-newport-south-telford-wrekin-30-april-2026/", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm-byel-v1-byel-2026-04-30-st-ives-tc-west", "kind": "uk_council_byelection", "election_id": "byel-2026-04-30-st-ives-tc-west", "election_date": "2026-04-30", "subject": "St Ives TC - West", "subject_council": "St Ives TC", "subject_ward": "West", "region": "South West", "incumbent_before": "Independent", "predicted_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "predicted_confidence": "Confident", "predicted_margin_pp": 15.92, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Liberal Democrat": 45.32, "Green": 29.4, "Reform UK": 25.28 }, "vote_shares_last_result": { "Liberal Democrat": 51.57, "Green": 31.1, "Reform UK": 17.32 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-10T21:10:00Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-byelection", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "49fca21295b485c251f2e6c86d40fbffb8a69385cd2a36c88b2eda90db05477f", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "note": "Engine built 2026-05-10, after these 12 events landed. Future by-elections will be pre-registered." }, "actual_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "actual_at": "2026-04-30T22:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://www.aldc.org/2026/04/st-ives-tc-west-30-april-2026/", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-mistool-byel-2026-04-30-st-ives-tc-west", "kind": "uk_council_byelection", "election_id": "byel-2026-04-30-st-ives-tc-west", "election_date": "2026-04-30", "subject": "St Ives TC - West", "subject_council": "St Ives TC", "subject_ward": "West", "region": "South West", "incumbent_before": "Independent", "predicted_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "predicted_confidence": "Lean", "predicted_margin_pp": 15.92, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Liberal Democrat": 45.32, "Green": 29.4, "Reform UK": 25.28 }, "vote_shares_last_result": { "Liberal Democrat": 51.57, "Green": 31.1, "Reform UK": 17.32 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-10T21:10:00Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "wrong_tool": true, "note": "v15.1 is council-level methodology. Applied here only to demonstrate that it is the WRONG TOOL for single-seat by-elections. Use kpm-byelection-v1 for these. Empirical: v15.1 hits 5/12 = 41.7%, byel-v1 hits 9/12 = 75%." }, "actual_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "actual_at": "2026-04-30T22:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://www.aldc.org/2026/04/st-ives-tc-west-30-april-2026/", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-byel-v1-byel-2026-04-30-bude-stratton-tc-stratton", "kind": "uk_council_byelection", "election_id": "byel-2026-04-30-bude-stratton-tc-stratton", "election_date": "2026-04-30", "subject": "Bude-Stratton TC - Stratton", "subject_council": "Bude-Stratton TC", "subject_ward": "Stratton", "region": "South West", "incumbent_before": "Unknown", "predicted_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "predicted_confidence": "Confident", "predicted_margin_pp": 29.76, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Liberal Democrat": 64.88, "Green": 35.12 }, "vote_shares_last_result": { "Liberal Democrat": 66.47, "Green": 33.53 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-10T21:10:00Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-byelection", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "49fca21295b485c251f2e6c86d40fbffb8a69385cd2a36c88b2eda90db05477f", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "note": "Engine built 2026-05-10, after these 12 events landed. Future by-elections will be pre-registered." }, "actual_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "actual_at": "2026-04-30T22:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://www.aldc.org/2026/04/bude-stratton-tc-stratton-30-april-2026/", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-mistool-byel-2026-04-30-bude-stratton-tc-stratton", "kind": "uk_council_byelection", "election_id": "byel-2026-04-30-bude-stratton-tc-stratton", "election_date": "2026-04-30", "subject": "Bude-Stratton TC - Stratton", "subject_council": "Bude-Stratton TC", "subject_ward": "Stratton", "region": "South West", "incumbent_before": "Unknown", "predicted_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "predicted_confidence": "Lean", "predicted_margin_pp": 29.76, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Liberal Democrat": 64.88, "Green": 35.12 }, "vote_shares_last_result": { "Liberal Democrat": 66.47, "Green": 33.53 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-10T21:10:00Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "wrong_tool": true, "note": "v15.1 is council-level methodology. Applied here only to demonstrate that it is the WRONG TOOL for single-seat by-elections. Use kpm-byelection-v1 for these. Empirical: v15.1 hits 5/12 = 41.7%, byel-v1 hits 9/12 = 75%." }, "actual_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "actual_at": "2026-04-30T22:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://www.aldc.org/2026/04/bude-stratton-tc-stratton-30-april-2026/", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-byel-v1-byel-2026-04-23-cornwall-ua-newquay-porth-tretherras", "kind": "uk_council_byelection", "election_id": "byel-2026-04-23-cornwall-ua-newquay-porth-tretherras", "election_date": "2026-04-23", "subject": "Cornwall UA - Newquay Porth & Tretherras", "subject_council": "Cornwall UA", "subject_ward": "Newquay Porth & Tretherras", "region": "South West", "incumbent_before": "Unknown", "predicted_winner": "Reform UK", "predicted_confidence": "Lean", "predicted_margin_pp": 13.68, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Reform UK": 40.11, "Green": 26.43, "Independent": 17.02, "Liberal Democrat": 16.44, "Conservative": 0.0, "Labour": 0.0 }, "vote_shares_last_result": { "Reform UK": 30.2, "Green": 24.8, "Independent": 16.9, "Liberal Democrat": 16.3, "Conservative": 6.2, "Labour": 5.6 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-10T21:10:00Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-byelection", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "49fca21295b485c251f2e6c86d40fbffb8a69385cd2a36c88b2eda90db05477f", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "note": "Engine built 2026-05-10, after these 12 events landed. Future by-elections will be pre-registered." }, "actual_winner": "Reform UK", "actual_at": "2026-04-30T22:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://www.aldc.org/2026/04/cornwall-ua-newquay-porth-tretherras-23-april-2026/", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-mistool-byel-2026-04-23-cornwall-ua-newquay-porth-tretherras", "kind": "uk_council_byelection", "election_id": "byel-2026-04-23-cornwall-ua-newquay-porth-tretherras", "election_date": "2026-04-23", "subject": "Cornwall UA - Newquay Porth & Tretherras", "subject_council": "Cornwall UA", "subject_ward": "Newquay Porth & Tretherras", "region": "South West", "incumbent_before": "Unknown", "predicted_winner": "Reform UK", "predicted_confidence": "Lean", "predicted_margin_pp": 13.68, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Reform UK": 40.11, "Green": 26.43, "Independent": 17.02, "Liberal Democrat": 16.44, "Conservative": 0.0, "Labour": 0.0 }, "vote_shares_last_result": { "Reform UK": 30.2, "Green": 24.8, "Independent": 16.9, "Liberal Democrat": 16.3, "Conservative": 6.2, "Labour": 5.6 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-10T21:10:00Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "wrong_tool": true, "note": "v15.1 is council-level methodology. Applied here only to demonstrate that it is the WRONG TOOL for single-seat by-elections. Use kpm-byelection-v1 for these. Empirical: v15.1 hits 5/12 = 41.7%, byel-v1 hits 9/12 = 75%." }, "actual_winner": "Reform UK", "actual_at": "2026-04-30T22:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://www.aldc.org/2026/04/cornwall-ua-newquay-porth-tretherras-23-april-2026/", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-byel-v1-byel-2026-04-16-northumberland-ua-cramlington-south-west", "kind": "uk_council_byelection", "election_id": "byel-2026-04-16-northumberland-ua-cramlington-south-west", "election_date": "2026-04-16", "subject": "Northumberland UA - Cramlington South West", "subject_council": "Northumberland UA", "subject_ward": "Cramlington South West", "region": "North East", "incumbent_before": "Unknown", "predicted_winner": "Reform UK", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 3.55, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Conservaties": 31.96, "Reform UK": 35.51, "Labour": 12.15, "Green": 16.17, "Independent": 2.43, "Liberal Democrat": 1.78 }, "vote_shares_last_result": { "Conservaties": 34.2, "Reform UK": 26.0, "Labour": 23.0, "Green": 14.3, "Independent": 1.6, "Liberal Democrat": 0.9 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-10T21:10:00Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-byelection", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "49fca21295b485c251f2e6c86d40fbffb8a69385cd2a36c88b2eda90db05477f", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "note": "Engine built 2026-05-10, after these 12 events landed. Future by-elections will be pre-registered." }, "actual_winner": "Conservaties", "actual_at": "2026-04-30T22:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://www.aldc.org/2026/04/northumberland-ua-cramlington-south-west-16-april-2026/", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-mistool-byel-2026-04-16-northumberland-ua-cramlington-south-west", "kind": "uk_council_byelection", "election_id": "byel-2026-04-16-northumberland-ua-cramlington-south-west", "election_date": "2026-04-16", "subject": "Northumberland UA - Cramlington South West", "subject_council": "Northumberland UA", "subject_ward": "Cramlington South West", "region": "North East", "incumbent_before": "Unknown", "predicted_winner": "Reform UK", "predicted_confidence": "Lean", "predicted_margin_pp": 3.55, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Conservaties": 31.96, "Reform UK": 35.51, "Labour": 12.15, "Green": 16.17, "Independent": 2.43, "Liberal Democrat": 1.78 }, "vote_shares_last_result": { "Conservaties": 34.2, "Reform UK": 26.0, "Labour": 23.0, "Green": 14.3, "Independent": 1.6, "Liberal Democrat": 0.9 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-10T21:10:00Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "wrong_tool": true, "note": "v15.1 is council-level methodology. Applied here only to demonstrate that it is the WRONG TOOL for single-seat by-elections. Use kpm-byelection-v1 for these. Empirical: v15.1 hits 5/12 = 41.7%, byel-v1 hits 9/12 = 75%." }, "actual_winner": "Conservaties", "actual_at": "2026-04-30T22:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://www.aldc.org/2026/04/northumberland-ua-cramlington-south-west-16-april-2026/", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm-byel-v1-byel-2026-04-16-leicestershire-cc-narborough-whetstone", "kind": "uk_council_byelection", "election_id": "byel-2026-04-16-leicestershire-cc-narborough-whetstone", "election_date": "2026-04-16", "subject": "Leicestershire CC - Narborough & Whetstone", "subject_council": "Leicestershire CC", "subject_ward": "Narborough & Whetstone", "region": "East Midlands", "incumbent_before": "Unknown", "predicted_winner": "Reform UK", "predicted_confidence": "Lean", "predicted_margin_pp": 13.2, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Reform UK": 43.26, "Conservative": 20.71, "Green": 30.06, "Liberal Democrat": 5.11, "Labour": 0.0, "Advance UK": 0.87 }, "vote_shares_last_result": { "Reform UK": 32.9, "Conservative": 29.5, "Green": 28.2, "Liberal Democrat": 4.3, "Labour": 4.0, "Advance UK": 0.9 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-10T21:10:00Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-byelection", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "49fca21295b485c251f2e6c86d40fbffb8a69385cd2a36c88b2eda90db05477f", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "note": "Engine built 2026-05-10, after these 12 events landed. Future by-elections will be pre-registered." }, "actual_winner": "Reform UK", "actual_at": "2026-04-30T22:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://www.aldc.org/2026/04/leicestershire-cc-narborough-whetstone-16-april-2026-2/", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-mistool-byel-2026-04-16-leicestershire-cc-narborough-whetstone", "kind": "uk_council_byelection", "election_id": "byel-2026-04-16-leicestershire-cc-narborough-whetstone", "election_date": "2026-04-16", "subject": "Leicestershire CC - Narborough & Whetstone", "subject_council": "Leicestershire CC", "subject_ward": "Narborough & Whetstone", "region": "East Midlands", "incumbent_before": "Unknown", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_confidence": "NOC", "predicted_margin_pp": 13.2, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Reform UK": 43.26, "Conservative": 20.71, "Green": 30.06, "Liberal Democrat": 5.11, "Labour": 0.0, "Advance UK": 0.87 }, "vote_shares_last_result": { "Reform UK": 32.9, "Conservative": 29.5, "Green": 28.2, "Liberal Democrat": 4.3, "Labour": 4.0, "Advance UK": 0.9 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-10T21:10:00Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "wrong_tool": true, "note": "v15.1 is council-level methodology. Applied here only to demonstrate that it is the WRONG TOOL for single-seat by-elections. Use kpm-byelection-v1 for these. Empirical: v15.1 hits 5/12 = 41.7%, byel-v1 hits 9/12 = 75%." }, "actual_winner": "Reform UK", "actual_at": "2026-04-30T22:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://www.aldc.org/2026/04/leicestershire-cc-narborough-whetstone-16-april-2026-2/", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm-byel-v1-byel-2026-04-09-kent-cc-cliftonville", "kind": "uk_council_byelection", "election_id": "byel-2026-04-09-kent-cc-cliftonville", "election_date": "2026-04-09", "subject": "Kent CC - Cliftonville", "subject_council": "Kent CC", "subject_ward": "Cliftonville", "region": "South East", "incumbent_before": "Unknown", "predicted_winner": "Reform UK", "predicted_confidence": "Toss-up", "predicted_margin_pp": 3.34, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Green": 42.22, "Reform UK": 45.56, "Conservative": 7.27, "Labour": 0.4, "Independent": 2.32, "Liberal Democrat": 2.22 }, "vote_shares_last_result": { "Green": 38.8, "Reform UK": 33.1, "Conservative": 15.2, "Labour": 10.4, "Independent": 1.3, "Liberal Democrat": 1.2 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-10T21:10:00Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-byelection", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "49fca21295b485c251f2e6c86d40fbffb8a69385cd2a36c88b2eda90db05477f", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "note": "Engine built 2026-05-10, after these 12 events landed. Future by-elections will be pre-registered." }, "actual_winner": "Green", "actual_at": "2026-04-30T22:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://www.aldc.org/2026/04/kent-cc-cliftonville-9-april-2026-2/", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-mistool-byel-2026-04-09-kent-cc-cliftonville", "kind": "uk_council_byelection", "election_id": "byel-2026-04-09-kent-cc-cliftonville", "election_date": "2026-04-09", "subject": "Kent CC - Cliftonville", "subject_council": "Kent CC", "subject_ward": "Cliftonville", "region": "South East", "incumbent_before": "Unknown", "predicted_winner": "Reform UK", "predicted_confidence": "Lean", "predicted_margin_pp": 3.34, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Green": 42.22, "Reform UK": 45.56, "Conservative": 7.27, "Labour": 0.4, "Independent": 2.32, "Liberal Democrat": 2.22 }, "vote_shares_last_result": { "Green": 38.8, "Reform UK": 33.1, "Conservative": 15.2, "Labour": 10.4, "Independent": 1.3, "Liberal Democrat": 1.2 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-10T21:10:00Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "wrong_tool": true, "note": "v15.1 is council-level methodology. Applied here only to demonstrate that it is the WRONG TOOL for single-seat by-elections. Use kpm-byelection-v1 for these. Empirical: v15.1 hits 5/12 = 41.7%, byel-v1 hits 9/12 = 75%." }, "actual_winner": "Green", "actual_at": "2026-04-30T22:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://www.aldc.org/2026/04/kent-cc-cliftonville-9-april-2026-2/", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm-byel-v1-byel-2026-04-02-north-devon-dc-fremington", "kind": "uk_council_byelection", "election_id": "byel-2026-04-02-north-devon-dc-fremington", "election_date": "2026-04-02", "subject": "North Devon DC - Fremington", "subject_council": "North Devon DC", "subject_ward": "Fremington", "region": "South West", "incumbent_before": "Unknown", "predicted_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "predicted_confidence": "Lean", "predicted_margin_pp": 5.58, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Liberal Democrat": 47.35, "Reform UK": 41.77, "Green": 10.88, "Conservative": 0.0, "Labour": 0.0 }, "vote_shares_last_result": { "Liberal Democrat": 49.9, "Reform UK": 32.9, "Green": 8.7, "Conservative": 7.7, "Labour": 0.8 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-10T21:10:00Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-byelection", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "49fca21295b485c251f2e6c86d40fbffb8a69385cd2a36c88b2eda90db05477f", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "note": "Engine built 2026-05-10, after these 12 events landed. Future by-elections will be pre-registered." }, "actual_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "actual_at": "2026-04-30T22:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://www.aldc.org/2026/04/north-devon-dc-fremington-2-april-2026/", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-mistool-byel-2026-04-02-north-devon-dc-fremington", "kind": "uk_council_byelection", "election_id": "byel-2026-04-02-north-devon-dc-fremington", "election_date": "2026-04-02", "subject": "North Devon DC - Fremington", "subject_council": "North Devon DC", "subject_ward": "Fremington", "region": "South West", "incumbent_before": "Unknown", "predicted_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "predicted_confidence": "Lean", "predicted_margin_pp": 5.58, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Liberal Democrat": 47.35, "Reform UK": 41.77, "Green": 10.88, "Conservative": 0.0, "Labour": 0.0 }, "vote_shares_last_result": { "Liberal Democrat": 49.9, "Reform UK": 32.9, "Green": 8.7, "Conservative": 7.7, "Labour": 0.8 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-10T21:10:00Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "wrong_tool": true, "note": "v15.1 is council-level methodology. Applied here only to demonstrate that it is the WRONG TOOL for single-seat by-elections. Use kpm-byelection-v1 for these. Empirical: v15.1 hits 5/12 = 41.7%, byel-v1 hits 9/12 = 75%." }, "actual_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "actual_at": "2026-04-30T22:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://www.aldc.org/2026/04/north-devon-dc-fremington-2-april-2026/", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-byel-v1-byel-2026-04-02-rossendale-bc-hareholme-and-waterfoot", "kind": "uk_council_byelection", "election_id": "byel-2026-04-02-rossendale-bc-hareholme-and-waterfoot", "election_date": "2026-04-02", "subject": "Rossendale BC - Hareholme and Waterfoot", "subject_council": "Rossendale BC", "subject_ward": "Hareholme and Waterfoot", "region": "North West", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Reform UK", "predicted_confidence": "Lean", "predicted_margin_pp": 5.62, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Green": 39.44, "Reform UK": 45.06, "Labour": 12.79, "Conservative": 0.0, "Liberal Democrat": 2.71 }, "vote_shares_last_result": { "Green": 37.7, "Reform UK": 34.5, "Labour": 19.2, "Conservative": 6.8, "Liberal Democrat": 1.8 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-10T21:10:00Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-byelection", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "49fca21295b485c251f2e6c86d40fbffb8a69385cd2a36c88b2eda90db05477f", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "note": "Engine built 2026-05-10, after these 12 events landed. Future by-elections will be pre-registered." }, "actual_winner": "Green", "actual_at": "2026-04-30T22:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://www.aldc.org/2026/04/rossendale-bc-hareholme-and-waterfoot-2-april-2026-2/", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-mistool-byel-2026-04-02-rossendale-bc-hareholme-and-waterfoot", "kind": "uk_council_byelection", "election_id": "byel-2026-04-02-rossendale-bc-hareholme-and-waterfoot", "election_date": "2026-04-02", "subject": "Rossendale BC - Hareholme and Waterfoot", "subject_council": "Rossendale BC", "subject_ward": "Hareholme and Waterfoot", "region": "North West", "incumbent_before": "Labour", "predicted_winner": "Reform UK", "predicted_confidence": "Lean", "predicted_margin_pp": 5.85, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Green": 41.03, "Reform UK": 46.88, "Labour": 9.27, "Conservative": 0.0, "Liberal Democrat": 2.82 }, "vote_shares_last_result": { "Green": 37.7, "Reform UK": 34.5, "Labour": 19.2, "Conservative": 6.8, "Liberal Democrat": 1.8 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-10T21:10:00Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "wrong_tool": true, "note": "v15.1 is council-level methodology. Applied here only to demonstrate that it is the WRONG TOOL for single-seat by-elections. Use kpm-byelection-v1 for these. Empirical: v15.1 hits 5/12 = 41.7%, byel-v1 hits 9/12 = 75%." }, "actual_winner": "Green", "actual_at": "2026-04-30T22:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://www.aldc.org/2026/04/rossendale-bc-hareholme-and-waterfoot-2-april-2026-2/", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm-byel-v1-byel-2026-04-02-luton-bc-wigmore", "kind": "uk_council_byelection", "election_id": "byel-2026-04-02-luton-bc-wigmore", "election_date": "2026-04-02", "subject": "Luton BC - Wigmore", "subject_council": "Luton BC", "subject_ward": "Wigmore", "region": "East of England", "incumbent_before": "Unknown", "predicted_winner": "Reform UK", "predicted_confidence": "Lean", "predicted_margin_pp": 13.42, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Reform UK": 44.63, "Liberal Democrat": 31.21, "Green": 22.47, "Labour": 0.0, "Conservative": 0.0, "Independent": 1.69 }, "vote_shares_last_result": { "Reform UK": 32.9, "Liberal Democrat": 30.4, "Green": 19.6, "Labour": 9.7, "Conservative": 6.6, "Independent": 0.7 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-10T21:10:00Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-byelection", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "49fca21295b485c251f2e6c86d40fbffb8a69385cd2a36c88b2eda90db05477f", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "note": "Engine built 2026-05-10, after these 12 events landed. Future by-elections will be pre-registered." }, "actual_winner": "Reform UK", "actual_at": "2026-04-30T22:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://www.aldc.org/2026/04/luton-bc-wigmore-2-april-2026/", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-mistool-byel-2026-04-02-luton-bc-wigmore", "kind": "uk_council_byelection", "election_id": "byel-2026-04-02-luton-bc-wigmore", "election_date": "2026-04-02", "subject": "Luton BC - Wigmore", "subject_council": "Luton BC", "subject_ward": "Wigmore", "region": "East of England", "incumbent_before": "Unknown", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_confidence": "NOC", "predicted_margin_pp": 13.42, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Reform UK": 44.63, "Liberal Democrat": 31.21, "Green": 22.47, "Labour": 0.0, "Conservative": 0.0, "Independent": 1.69 }, "vote_shares_last_result": { "Reform UK": 32.9, "Liberal Democrat": 30.4, "Green": 19.6, "Labour": 9.7, "Conservative": 6.6, "Independent": 0.7 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-10T21:10:00Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "wrong_tool": true, "note": "v15.1 is council-level methodology. Applied here only to demonstrate that it is the WRONG TOOL for single-seat by-elections. Use kpm-byelection-v1 for these. Empirical: v15.1 hits 5/12 = 41.7%, byel-v1 hits 9/12 = 75%." }, "actual_winner": "Reform UK", "actual_at": "2026-04-30T22:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://www.aldc.org/2026/04/luton-bc-wigmore-2-april-2026/", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm-byel-v1-byel-2026-04-22-salford-bc-barton-winton", "kind": "uk_council_byelection", "election_id": "byel-2026-04-22-salford-bc-barton-winton", "election_date": "2026-04-22", "subject": "Salford BC - Barton & Winton", "subject_council": "Salford BC", "subject_ward": "Barton & Winton", "region": "North West", "incumbent_before": "Unknown", "predicted_winner": "Reform UK", "predicted_confidence": "Confident", "predicted_margin_pp": 23.47, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Reform UK": 46.44, "Labour": 22.97, "Green": 21.49, "Conservative": 0.0, "Liberal Democrat": 5.84, "Independent": 3.27 }, "vote_shares_last_result": { "Reform UK": 34.9, "Labour": 33.2, "Green": 18.7, "Conservative": 6.1, "Liberal Democrat": 4.9, "Independent": 2.3 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-10T21:10:00Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-byelection", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "49fca21295b485c251f2e6c86d40fbffb8a69385cd2a36c88b2eda90db05477f", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "note": "Engine built 2026-05-10, after these 12 events landed. Future by-elections will be pre-registered." }, "actual_winner": "Reform UK", "actual_at": "2026-04-30T22:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://www.aldc.org/2026/04/salford-bc-barton-winton-wednesday-22-april-2026/", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm22-v15-1-mistool-byel-2026-04-22-salford-bc-barton-winton", "kind": "uk_council_byelection", "election_id": "byel-2026-04-22-salford-bc-barton-winton", "election_date": "2026-04-22", "subject": "Salford BC - Barton & Winton", "subject_council": "Salford BC", "subject_ward": "Barton & Winton", "region": "North West", "incumbent_before": "Unknown", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_confidence": "NOC", "predicted_margin_pp": 23.47, "vote_shares_predicted": { "Reform UK": 46.44, "Labour": 22.97, "Green": 21.49, "Conservative": 0.0, "Liberal Democrat": 5.84, "Independent": 3.27 }, "vote_shares_last_result": { "Reform UK": 34.9, "Labour": 33.2, "Green": 18.7, "Conservative": 6.1, "Liberal Democrat": 4.9, "Independent": 2.3 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-10T21:10:00Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-2.2", "version": "v15.1", "hash_sha256": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "wrong_tool": true, "note": "v15.1 is council-level methodology. Applied here only to demonstrate that it is the WRONG TOOL for single-seat by-elections. Use kpm-byelection-v1 for these. Empirical: v15.1 hits 5/12 = 41.7%, byel-v1 hits 9/12 = 75%." }, "actual_winner": "Reform UK", "actual_at": "2026-04-30T22:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://www.aldc.org/2026/04/salford-bc-barton-winton-wednesday-22-april-2026/", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm-scotparl-v1-2026-05-07", "kind": "scottish_parliament_election", "election_id": "sp-2026-05-07", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "2026 Scottish Parliament election", "predicted_winner": "SNP", "predicted_winner_seats": 52, "predicted_no_overall_majority": true, "predicted_seat_allocation": { "Conservative": 18, "SNP": 52, "Reform UK": 20, "Labour": 22, "Liberal Democrat": 4, "Green": 13 }, "projected_constituency_shares": { "SNP": 38.91, "Labour": 19.2, "Conservative": 14.34, "Liberal Democrat": 5.06, "Green": 6.5, "Reform UK": 16.0 }, "projected_list_shares": { "SNP": 32.9, "Labour": 16.18, "Conservative": 16.83, "Green": 14.22, "Liberal Democrat": 3.37, "Reform UK": 16.5 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-10T21:20:00Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-scotparl", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "ec1c3ec273e345663b72c481be12a36c480611b56db6971a6462941338b7c64b", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "note": "Retrospective. Built 2026-05-10. Future SP elections will be pre-registered." }, "actual_winner": "SNP", "actual_winner_seats": 58, "actual_no_overall_majority": true, "actual_at": "2026-05-08T20:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Scottish_Parliament_election", "hit": true, "hit_majority_call": true, "post_mortem_note": "Predicted SNP 52 seats; actual SNP 58. Hit on winner. NOC call also correct. Reform UK: predicted 20 seats, actual 17 (close). v1 uses proportional approximation for constituency seats; v2 should do real per-constituency FPTP." }, { "id": "kpm-senedd-v1-2026-05-07", "kind": "welsh_senedd_election", "election_id": "senedd-2026-05-07", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "2026 Senedd election (Wales)", "subject_id": "senedd-2026", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_winner_seats": 32, "predicted_no_overall_majority": true, "predicted_seat_allocation": { "Labour": 32, "Conservative": 16, "Plaid Cymru": 32, "Liberal Democrat": 0, "Reform UK": 16, "Green": 0 }, "projected_wales_shares": { "Labour": 29.57, "Conservative": 18.89, "Plaid Cymru": 25.42, "Liberal Democrat": 3.26, "Reform UK": 20.87, "Green": 1.98 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-10T21:15:00Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-senedd", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "e535067d74f64e71055b0c4e15858c53ebf27bfcdf0fd4e699b6729e4c41199c", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "note": "Retrospective. Built 2026-05-10, after the actual result was known. Future Senedd elections will be pre-registered." }, "actual_winner": "Plaid Cymru", "actual_winner_seats": 43, "actual_no_overall_majority": true, "actual_at": "2026-05-08T20:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Senedd_election", "hit": false, "hit_majority_call": true, "post_mortem_note": "Pure UNS under-estimated Welsh-specific Plaid surge (+5pp assumed, +14.7pp actual) and Reform breakthrough (+20pp assumed, +28.2pp actual). Predicted Lab/Plaid tie at 32 seats; actual was Plaid 43 / Reform 34. Got the no-overall-majority call right. v2 should use Welsh-specific 2026 polling subsamples instead of pure UNS." }, { "id": "kpm-mayoral-v1-2024-05-02-london", "kind": "london_mayoral_election", "election_id": "london-mayoral-2024-05-02", "election_date": "2024-05-02", "subject": "2024 London mayoral election", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_confidence": "Lean", "predicted_margin_pp": 9.77, "projected_shares": { "Labour": 39.05, "Conservative": 29.28, "Liberal Democrat": 5.86, "Green": 11.71, "Reform UK": 14.1 }, "predicted_at": "2026-05-10T21:25:00Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-mayoral", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "9b4f7c0d1f54e96a0b43da25b4b327a2a9283b987a6b0980fe32515d742708be", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "sanity_check_only": true, "note": "Quasi-circular: UNS_2024_TO_2026 derived from 2024-2026 change but applied to 2021 data here. Khan won 2021 + 2024 so prediction robust either way. Real test = 2028 mayoral round." }, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_winner_name": "Sadiq Khan", "actual_winner_pct": 43.8, "actual_at": "2024-05-04T12:00:00Z", "actual_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_London_mayoral_election", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-ward-uns-2026-05-07-adur", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-adur", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Adur", "subject_council": "Adur", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17-ward-uns", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "e38adc8efdd564f8bbd36fd0c78f111f835e86a41b7ceb8225aa8158d289b71f", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "Baseline ward-UNS. n=21 sample = 11/21 = 52.4%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-ward-uns-2026-05-07-barking-and-dagenham", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-barking-and-dagenham", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Barking and Dagenham", "subject_council": "Barking and Dagenham", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17-ward-uns", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "e38adc8efdd564f8bbd36fd0c78f111f835e86a41b7ceb8225aa8158d289b71f", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "Baseline ward-UNS. n=21 sample = 11/21 = 52.4%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-ward-uns-2026-05-07-barnet", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-barnet", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Barnet", "subject_council": "Barnet", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17-ward-uns", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "e38adc8efdd564f8bbd36fd0c78f111f835e86a41b7ceb8225aa8158d289b71f", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "Baseline ward-UNS. n=21 sample = 11/21 = 52.4%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm-v17-ward-uns-2026-05-07-barnsley", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-barnsley", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Barnsley", "subject_council": "Barnsley", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17-ward-uns", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "e38adc8efdd564f8bbd36fd0c78f111f835e86a41b7ceb8225aa8158d289b71f", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "Baseline ward-UNS. n=21 sample = 11/21 = 52.4%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Reform UK", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm-v17-ward-uns-2026-05-07-basildon", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-basildon", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Basildon", "subject_council": "Basildon", "predicted_winner": "Conservative", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17-ward-uns", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "e38adc8efdd564f8bbd36fd0c78f111f835e86a41b7ceb8225aa8158d289b71f", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "Baseline ward-UNS. n=21 sample = 11/21 = 52.4%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm-v17-ward-uns-2026-05-07-birmingham", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-birmingham", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Birmingham", "subject_council": "Birmingham", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17-ward-uns", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "e38adc8efdd564f8bbd36fd0c78f111f835e86a41b7ceb8225aa8158d289b71f", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "Baseline ward-UNS. n=21 sample = 11/21 = 52.4%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm-v17-ward-uns-2026-05-07-bolton", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-bolton", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Bolton", "subject_council": "Bolton", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17-ward-uns", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "e38adc8efdd564f8bbd36fd0c78f111f835e86a41b7ceb8225aa8158d289b71f", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "Baseline ward-UNS. n=21 sample = 11/21 = 52.4%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-ward-uns-2026-05-07-bradford", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-bradford", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Bradford", "subject_council": "Bradford", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17-ward-uns", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "e38adc8efdd564f8bbd36fd0c78f111f835e86a41b7ceb8225aa8158d289b71f", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "Baseline ward-UNS. n=21 sample = 11/21 = 52.4%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-ward-uns-2026-05-07-bury", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-bury", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Bury", "subject_council": "Bury", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17-ward-uns", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "e38adc8efdd564f8bbd36fd0c78f111f835e86a41b7ceb8225aa8158d289b71f", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "Baseline ward-UNS. n=21 sample = 11/21 = 52.4%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-ward-uns-2026-05-07-calderdale", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-calderdale", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Calderdale", "subject_council": "Calderdale", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17-ward-uns", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "e38adc8efdd564f8bbd36fd0c78f111f835e86a41b7ceb8225aa8158d289b71f", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "Baseline ward-UNS. n=21 sample = 11/21 = 52.4%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Reform UK", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm-v17-ward-uns-2026-05-07-cheltenham", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-cheltenham", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Cheltenham", "subject_council": "Cheltenham", "predicted_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17-ward-uns", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "e38adc8efdd564f8bbd36fd0c78f111f835e86a41b7ceb8225aa8158d289b71f", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "Baseline ward-UNS. n=21 sample = 11/21 = 52.4%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-ward-uns-2026-05-07-eastleigh", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-eastleigh", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Eastleigh", "subject_council": "Eastleigh", "predicted_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17-ward-uns", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "e38adc8efdd564f8bbd36fd0c78f111f835e86a41b7ceb8225aa8158d289b71f", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "Baseline ward-UNS. n=21 sample = 11/21 = 52.4%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-ward-uns-2026-05-07-gateshead", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-gateshead", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Gateshead", "subject_council": "Gateshead", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17-ward-uns", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "e38adc8efdd564f8bbd36fd0c78f111f835e86a41b7ceb8225aa8158d289b71f", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "Baseline ward-UNS. n=21 sample = 11/21 = 52.4%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Reform UK", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm-v17-ward-uns-2026-05-07-hartlepool", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-hartlepool", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Hartlepool", "subject_council": "Hartlepool", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17-ward-uns", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "e38adc8efdd564f8bbd36fd0c78f111f835e86a41b7ceb8225aa8158d289b71f", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "Baseline ward-UNS. n=21 sample = 11/21 = 52.4%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm-v17-ward-uns-2026-05-07-kingston-upon-thames", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-kingston-upon-thames", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Kingston upon Thames", "subject_council": "Kingston upon Thames", "predicted_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17-ward-uns", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "e38adc8efdd564f8bbd36fd0c78f111f835e86a41b7ceb8225aa8158d289b71f", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "Baseline ward-UNS. n=21 sample = 11/21 = 52.4%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-ward-uns-2026-05-07-kirklees", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-kirklees", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Kirklees", "subject_council": "Kirklees", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17-ward-uns", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "e38adc8efdd564f8bbd36fd0c78f111f835e86a41b7ceb8225aa8158d289b71f", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "Baseline ward-UNS. n=21 sample = 11/21 = 52.4%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-ward-uns-2026-05-07-knowsley", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-knowsley", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Knowsley", "subject_council": "Knowsley", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17-ward-uns", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "e38adc8efdd564f8bbd36fd0c78f111f835e86a41b7ceb8225aa8158d289b71f", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "Baseline ward-UNS. n=21 sample = 11/21 = 52.4%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-ward-uns-2026-05-07-leeds", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-leeds", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Leeds", "subject_council": "Leeds", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17-ward-uns", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "e38adc8efdd564f8bbd36fd0c78f111f835e86a41b7ceb8225aa8158d289b71f", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "Baseline ward-UNS. n=21 sample = 11/21 = 52.4%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS 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"england-locals-2026-05-07-merton", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Merton", "subject_council": "Merton", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17-ward-uns", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "e38adc8efdd564f8bbd36fd0c78f111f835e86a41b7ceb8225aa8158d289b71f", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "Baseline ward-UNS. n=21 sample = 11/21 = 52.4%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm-v17-ward-uns-2026-05-07-newcastle-upon-tyne", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-newcastle-upon-tyne", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Newcastle upon Tyne", "subject_council": "Newcastle upon Tyne", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17-ward-uns", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "e38adc8efdd564f8bbd36fd0c78f111f835e86a41b7ceb8225aa8158d289b71f", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "Baseline ward-UNS. n=21 sample = 11/21 = 52.4%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-ward-uns-2026-05-07-oldham", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-oldham", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Oldham", "subject_council": "Oldham", "predicted_winner": "Independent", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17-ward-uns", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "e38adc8efdd564f8bbd36fd0c78f111f835e86a41b7ceb8225aa8158d289b71f", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "Baseline ward-UNS. n=21 sample = 11/21 = 52.4%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm-v17-ward-uns-2026-05-07-richmond-upon-thames", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-richmond-upon-thames", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Richmond upon Thames", "subject_council": "Richmond upon Thames", "predicted_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17-ward-uns", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "e38adc8efdd564f8bbd36fd0c78f111f835e86a41b7ceb8225aa8158d289b71f", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "Baseline ward-UNS. n=21 sample = 11/21 = 52.4%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-ward-uns-2026-05-07-rochdale", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-rochdale", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Rochdale", "subject_council": "Rochdale", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17-ward-uns", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "e38adc8efdd564f8bbd36fd0c78f111f835e86a41b7ceb8225aa8158d289b71f", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "Baseline ward-UNS. n=21 sample = 11/21 = 52.4%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-ward-uns-2026-05-07-salford", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-salford", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Salford", "subject_council": "Salford", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17-ward-uns", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "e38adc8efdd564f8bbd36fd0c78f111f835e86a41b7ceb8225aa8158d289b71f", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "Baseline ward-UNS. n=21 sample = 11/21 = 52.4%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-ward-uns-2026-05-07-sandwell", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-sandwell", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Sandwell", "subject_council": "Sandwell", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17-ward-uns", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "e38adc8efdd564f8bbd36fd0c78f111f835e86a41b7ceb8225aa8158d289b71f", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "Baseline ward-UNS. n=21 sample = 11/21 = 52.4%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Reform UK", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm-v17-ward-uns-2026-05-07-sefton", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-sefton", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Sefton", "subject_council": "Sefton", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17-ward-uns", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "e38adc8efdd564f8bbd36fd0c78f111f835e86a41b7ceb8225aa8158d289b71f", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "Baseline ward-UNS. n=21 sample = 11/21 = 52.4%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm-v17-ward-uns-2026-05-07-sheffield", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-sheffield", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Sheffield", "subject_council": "Sheffield", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17-ward-uns", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "e38adc8efdd564f8bbd36fd0c78f111f835e86a41b7ceb8225aa8158d289b71f", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "Baseline ward-UNS. n=21 sample = 11/21 = 52.4%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-ward-uns-2026-05-07-south-cambridgeshire", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-south-cambridgeshire", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "South Cambridgeshire", "subject_council": "South Cambridgeshire", "predicted_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17-ward-uns", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "e38adc8efdd564f8bbd36fd0c78f111f835e86a41b7ceb8225aa8158d289b71f", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "Baseline ward-UNS. n=21 sample = 11/21 = 52.4%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-ward-uns-2026-05-07-stockport", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-stockport", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Stockport", "subject_council": "Stockport", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17-ward-uns", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "e38adc8efdd564f8bbd36fd0c78f111f835e86a41b7ceb8225aa8158d289b71f", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "Baseline ward-UNS. n=21 sample = 11/21 = 52.4%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm-v17-ward-uns-2026-05-07-sunderland", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-sunderland", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Sunderland", "subject_council": "Sunderland", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17-ward-uns", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "e38adc8efdd564f8bbd36fd0c78f111f835e86a41b7ceb8225aa8158d289b71f", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "Baseline ward-UNS. n=21 sample = 11/21 = 52.4%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club 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"election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-tameside", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Tameside", "subject_council": "Tameside", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17-ward-uns", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "e38adc8efdd564f8bbd36fd0c78f111f835e86a41b7ceb8225aa8158d289b71f", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "Baseline ward-UNS. n=21 sample = 11/21 = 52.4%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm-v17-ward-uns-2026-05-07-trafford", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-trafford", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Trafford", "subject_council": "Trafford", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17-ward-uns", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "e38adc8efdd564f8bbd36fd0c78f111f835e86a41b7ceb8225aa8158d289b71f", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "Baseline ward-UNS. n=21 sample = 11/21 = 52.4%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-ward-uns-2026-05-07-wakefield", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-wakefield", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Wakefield", "subject_council": "Wakefield", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17-ward-uns", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "e38adc8efdd564f8bbd36fd0c78f111f835e86a41b7ceb8225aa8158d289b71f", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "Baseline ward-UNS. n=21 sample = 11/21 = 52.4%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Reform UK", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm-v17-ward-uns-2026-05-07-wigan", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-wigan", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Wigan", "subject_council": "Wigan", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17-ward-uns", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "e38adc8efdd564f8bbd36fd0c78f111f835e86a41b7ceb8225aa8158d289b71f", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "Baseline ward-UNS. n=21 sample = 11/21 = 52.4%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-ward-uns-2026-05-07-wolverhampton", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-wolverhampton", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Wolverhampton", "subject_council": "Wolverhampton", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17-ward-uns", "version": "v1.0", "hash_sha256": "e38adc8efdd564f8bbd36fd0c78f111f835e86a41b7ceb8225aa8158d289b71f", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "Baseline ward-UNS. n=21 sample = 11/21 = 52.4%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm-v17-1-ward-uns-overlay-2026-05-07-adur", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-adur", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Adur", "subject_council": "Adur", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.1-ward-uns-overlay", "version": "v1.1", "hash_sha256": "6da92625051696defe71b8ea720109ab1689a68f86aa08cbb9b22a1ca70efc06", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "60% NOC overlay on v17.0. n=21 = 14/21 = 66.7%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-1-ward-uns-overlay-2026-05-07-barking-and-dagenham", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-barking-and-dagenham", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Barking and Dagenham", "subject_council": "Barking and Dagenham", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.1-ward-uns-overlay", "version": "v1.1", "hash_sha256": "6da92625051696defe71b8ea720109ab1689a68f86aa08cbb9b22a1ca70efc06", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "60% NOC overlay on v17.0. n=21 = 14/21 = 66.7%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-1-ward-uns-overlay-2026-05-07-barnet", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-barnet", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Barnet", "subject_council": "Barnet", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.1-ward-uns-overlay", "version": "v1.1", "hash_sha256": "6da92625051696defe71b8ea720109ab1689a68f86aa08cbb9b22a1ca70efc06", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "60% NOC overlay on v17.0. n=21 = 14/21 = 66.7%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm-v17-1-ward-uns-overlay-2026-05-07-barnsley", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-barnsley", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Barnsley", "subject_council": "Barnsley", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.1-ward-uns-overlay", "version": "v1.1", "hash_sha256": "6da92625051696defe71b8ea720109ab1689a68f86aa08cbb9b22a1ca70efc06", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "60% NOC overlay on v17.0. n=21 = 14/21 = 66.7%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Reform UK", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm-v17-1-ward-uns-overlay-2026-05-07-basildon", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-basildon", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Basildon", "subject_council": "Basildon", "predicted_winner": "Conservative", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.1-ward-uns-overlay", "version": "v1.1", "hash_sha256": "6da92625051696defe71b8ea720109ab1689a68f86aa08cbb9b22a1ca70efc06", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "60% NOC overlay on v17.0. n=21 = 14/21 = 66.7%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm-v17-1-ward-uns-overlay-2026-05-07-birmingham", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-birmingham", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Birmingham", "subject_council": "Birmingham", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.1-ward-uns-overlay", "version": "v1.1", "hash_sha256": "6da92625051696defe71b8ea720109ab1689a68f86aa08cbb9b22a1ca70efc06", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "60% NOC overlay on v17.0. n=21 = 14/21 = 66.7%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-1-ward-uns-overlay-2026-05-07-bolton", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-bolton", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Bolton", "subject_council": "Bolton", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.1-ward-uns-overlay", "version": "v1.1", "hash_sha256": "6da92625051696defe71b8ea720109ab1689a68f86aa08cbb9b22a1ca70efc06", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "60% NOC overlay on v17.0. n=21 = 14/21 = 66.7%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-1-ward-uns-overlay-2026-05-07-bradford", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-bradford", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Bradford", "subject_council": "Bradford", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.1-ward-uns-overlay", "version": "v1.1", "hash_sha256": "6da92625051696defe71b8ea720109ab1689a68f86aa08cbb9b22a1ca70efc06", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "60% NOC overlay on v17.0. n=21 = 14/21 = 66.7%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-1-ward-uns-overlay-2026-05-07-bury", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-bury", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Bury", "subject_council": "Bury", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.1-ward-uns-overlay", "version": "v1.1", "hash_sha256": "6da92625051696defe71b8ea720109ab1689a68f86aa08cbb9b22a1ca70efc06", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "60% NOC overlay on v17.0. n=21 = 14/21 = 66.7%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-1-ward-uns-overlay-2026-05-07-calderdale", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-calderdale", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Calderdale", "subject_council": "Calderdale", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.1-ward-uns-overlay", "version": "v1.1", "hash_sha256": "6da92625051696defe71b8ea720109ab1689a68f86aa08cbb9b22a1ca70efc06", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "60% NOC overlay on v17.0. n=21 = 14/21 = 66.7%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Reform UK", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm-v17-1-ward-uns-overlay-2026-05-07-cheltenham", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-cheltenham", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Cheltenham", "subject_council": "Cheltenham", "predicted_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.1-ward-uns-overlay", "version": "v1.1", "hash_sha256": "6da92625051696defe71b8ea720109ab1689a68f86aa08cbb9b22a1ca70efc06", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "60% NOC overlay on v17.0. n=21 = 14/21 = 66.7%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-1-ward-uns-overlay-2026-05-07-eastleigh", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-eastleigh", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Eastleigh", "subject_council": "Eastleigh", "predicted_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.1-ward-uns-overlay", "version": "v1.1", "hash_sha256": "6da92625051696defe71b8ea720109ab1689a68f86aa08cbb9b22a1ca70efc06", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "60% NOC overlay on v17.0. n=21 = 14/21 = 66.7%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-1-ward-uns-overlay-2026-05-07-gateshead", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-gateshead", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Gateshead", "subject_council": "Gateshead", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.1-ward-uns-overlay", "version": "v1.1", "hash_sha256": "6da92625051696defe71b8ea720109ab1689a68f86aa08cbb9b22a1ca70efc06", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "60% NOC overlay on v17.0. n=21 = 14/21 = 66.7%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Reform UK", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm-v17-1-ward-uns-overlay-2026-05-07-hartlepool", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-hartlepool", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Hartlepool", "subject_council": "Hartlepool", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.1-ward-uns-overlay", "version": "v1.1", "hash_sha256": "6da92625051696defe71b8ea720109ab1689a68f86aa08cbb9b22a1ca70efc06", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "60% NOC overlay on v17.0. n=21 = 14/21 = 66.7%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm-v17-1-ward-uns-overlay-2026-05-07-kingston-upon-thames", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-kingston-upon-thames", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Kingston upon Thames", "subject_council": "Kingston upon Thames", "predicted_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.1-ward-uns-overlay", "version": "v1.1", "hash_sha256": "6da92625051696defe71b8ea720109ab1689a68f86aa08cbb9b22a1ca70efc06", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "60% NOC overlay on v17.0. n=21 = 14/21 = 66.7%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-1-ward-uns-overlay-2026-05-07-kirklees", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-kirklees", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Kirklees", "subject_council": "Kirklees", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.1-ward-uns-overlay", "version": "v1.1", "hash_sha256": "6da92625051696defe71b8ea720109ab1689a68f86aa08cbb9b22a1ca70efc06", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "60% NOC overlay on v17.0. n=21 = 14/21 = 66.7%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-1-ward-uns-overlay-2026-05-07-knowsley", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-knowsley", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Knowsley", "subject_council": "Knowsley", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.1-ward-uns-overlay", "version": "v1.1", "hash_sha256": "6da92625051696defe71b8ea720109ab1689a68f86aa08cbb9b22a1ca70efc06", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "60% NOC overlay on v17.0. n=21 = 14/21 = 66.7%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-1-ward-uns-overlay-2026-05-07-leeds", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-leeds", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Leeds", "subject_council": "Leeds", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.1-ward-uns-overlay", "version": "v1.1", "hash_sha256": "6da92625051696defe71b8ea720109ab1689a68f86aa08cbb9b22a1ca70efc06", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "60% NOC overlay on v17.0. n=21 = 14/21 = 66.7%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-1-ward-uns-overlay-2026-05-07-manchester", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-manchester", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Manchester", "subject_council": "Manchester", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.1-ward-uns-overlay", "version": "v1.1", "hash_sha256": "6da92625051696defe71b8ea720109ab1689a68f86aa08cbb9b22a1ca70efc06", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "60% NOC overlay on v17.0. n=21 = 14/21 = 66.7%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-1-ward-uns-overlay-2026-05-07-merton", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-merton", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Merton", "subject_council": "Merton", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.1-ward-uns-overlay", "version": "v1.1", "hash_sha256": "6da92625051696defe71b8ea720109ab1689a68f86aa08cbb9b22a1ca70efc06", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "60% NOC overlay on v17.0. n=21 = 14/21 = 66.7%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm-v17-1-ward-uns-overlay-2026-05-07-newcastle-upon-tyne", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-newcastle-upon-tyne", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Newcastle upon Tyne", "subject_council": "Newcastle upon Tyne", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.1-ward-uns-overlay", "version": "v1.1", "hash_sha256": "6da92625051696defe71b8ea720109ab1689a68f86aa08cbb9b22a1ca70efc06", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "60% NOC overlay on v17.0. n=21 = 14/21 = 66.7%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-1-ward-uns-overlay-2026-05-07-oldham", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-oldham", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Oldham", "subject_council": "Oldham", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.1-ward-uns-overlay", "version": "v1.1", "hash_sha256": "6da92625051696defe71b8ea720109ab1689a68f86aa08cbb9b22a1ca70efc06", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "60% NOC overlay on v17.0. n=21 = 14/21 = 66.7%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-1-ward-uns-overlay-2026-05-07-richmond-upon-thames", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-richmond-upon-thames", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Richmond upon Thames", "subject_council": "Richmond upon Thames", "predicted_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.1-ward-uns-overlay", "version": "v1.1", "hash_sha256": "6da92625051696defe71b8ea720109ab1689a68f86aa08cbb9b22a1ca70efc06", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "60% NOC overlay on v17.0. n=21 = 14/21 = 66.7%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-1-ward-uns-overlay-2026-05-07-rochdale", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-rochdale", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Rochdale", "subject_council": "Rochdale", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.1-ward-uns-overlay", "version": "v1.1", "hash_sha256": "6da92625051696defe71b8ea720109ab1689a68f86aa08cbb9b22a1ca70efc06", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "60% NOC overlay on v17.0. n=21 = 14/21 = 66.7%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-1-ward-uns-overlay-2026-05-07-salford", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-salford", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Salford", "subject_council": "Salford", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.1-ward-uns-overlay", "version": "v1.1", "hash_sha256": "6da92625051696defe71b8ea720109ab1689a68f86aa08cbb9b22a1ca70efc06", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "60% NOC overlay on v17.0. n=21 = 14/21 = 66.7%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-1-ward-uns-overlay-2026-05-07-sandwell", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-sandwell", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Sandwell", "subject_council": "Sandwell", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.1-ward-uns-overlay", "version": "v1.1", "hash_sha256": "6da92625051696defe71b8ea720109ab1689a68f86aa08cbb9b22a1ca70efc06", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "60% NOC overlay on v17.0. n=21 = 14/21 = 66.7%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Reform UK", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm-v17-1-ward-uns-overlay-2026-05-07-sefton", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-sefton", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Sefton", "subject_council": "Sefton", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.1-ward-uns-overlay", "version": "v1.1", "hash_sha256": "6da92625051696defe71b8ea720109ab1689a68f86aa08cbb9b22a1ca70efc06", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "60% NOC overlay on v17.0. n=21 = 14/21 = 66.7%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm-v17-1-ward-uns-overlay-2026-05-07-sheffield", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-sheffield", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Sheffield", "subject_council": "Sheffield", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.1-ward-uns-overlay", "version": "v1.1", "hash_sha256": "6da92625051696defe71b8ea720109ab1689a68f86aa08cbb9b22a1ca70efc06", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "60% NOC overlay on v17.0. n=21 = 14/21 = 66.7%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-1-ward-uns-overlay-2026-05-07-south-cambridgeshire", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-south-cambridgeshire", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "South Cambridgeshire", "subject_council": "South Cambridgeshire", "predicted_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.1-ward-uns-overlay", "version": "v1.1", "hash_sha256": "6da92625051696defe71b8ea720109ab1689a68f86aa08cbb9b22a1ca70efc06", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "60% NOC overlay on v17.0. n=21 = 14/21 = 66.7%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-1-ward-uns-overlay-2026-05-07-stockport", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-stockport", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Stockport", "subject_council": "Stockport", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.1-ward-uns-overlay", "version": "v1.1", "hash_sha256": "6da92625051696defe71b8ea720109ab1689a68f86aa08cbb9b22a1ca70efc06", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "60% NOC overlay on v17.0. n=21 = 14/21 = 66.7%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm-v17-1-ward-uns-overlay-2026-05-07-sunderland", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-sunderland", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Sunderland", "subject_council": "Sunderland", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.1-ward-uns-overlay", "version": "v1.1", "hash_sha256": "6da92625051696defe71b8ea720109ab1689a68f86aa08cbb9b22a1ca70efc06", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "60% NOC overlay on v17.0. n=21 = 14/21 = 66.7%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Reform UK", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm-v17-1-ward-uns-overlay-2026-05-07-sutton", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-sutton", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Sutton", "subject_council": "Sutton", "predicted_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.1-ward-uns-overlay", "version": "v1.1", "hash_sha256": "6da92625051696defe71b8ea720109ab1689a68f86aa08cbb9b22a1ca70efc06", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "60% NOC overlay on v17.0. n=21 = 14/21 = 66.7%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-1-ward-uns-overlay-2026-05-07-tameside", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-tameside", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Tameside", "subject_council": "Tameside", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.1-ward-uns-overlay", "version": "v1.1", "hash_sha256": "6da92625051696defe71b8ea720109ab1689a68f86aa08cbb9b22a1ca70efc06", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "60% NOC overlay on v17.0. n=21 = 14/21 = 66.7%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm-v17-1-ward-uns-overlay-2026-05-07-trafford", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-trafford", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Trafford", "subject_council": "Trafford", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.1-ward-uns-overlay", "version": "v1.1", "hash_sha256": "6da92625051696defe71b8ea720109ab1689a68f86aa08cbb9b22a1ca70efc06", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "60% NOC overlay on v17.0. n=21 = 14/21 = 66.7%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-1-ward-uns-overlay-2026-05-07-wakefield", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-wakefield", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Wakefield", "subject_council": "Wakefield", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.1-ward-uns-overlay", "version": "v1.1", "hash_sha256": "6da92625051696defe71b8ea720109ab1689a68f86aa08cbb9b22a1ca70efc06", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "60% NOC overlay on v17.0. n=21 = 14/21 = 66.7%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Reform UK", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm-v17-1-ward-uns-overlay-2026-05-07-wigan", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-wigan", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Wigan", "subject_council": "Wigan", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.1-ward-uns-overlay", "version": "v1.1", "hash_sha256": "6da92625051696defe71b8ea720109ab1689a68f86aa08cbb9b22a1ca70efc06", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "60% NOC overlay on v17.0. n=21 = 14/21 = 66.7%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-1-ward-uns-overlay-2026-05-07-wolverhampton", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-wolverhampton", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Wolverhampton", "subject_council": "Wolverhampton", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.1-ward-uns-overlay", "version": "v1.1", "hash_sha256": "6da92625051696defe71b8ea720109ab1689a68f86aa08cbb9b22a1ca70efc06", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "60% NOC overlay on v17.0. n=21 = 14/21 = 66.7%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm-v17-3-ward-uns-reform-no-incumbency-2026-05-07-adur", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-adur", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Adur", "subject_council": "Adur", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.3-ward-uns-reform-no-incumbency", "version": "v1.3", "hash_sha256": "467c29426306194d9f9ec0226f15e5a3c444d4b85637ec6e4370d69e635e88ba", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.1 + Reform-target detection + suppress incumbency in Reform-target wards. n=21 = 14/21 = 66.7%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-3-ward-uns-reform-no-incumbency-2026-05-07-barking-and-dagenham", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-barking-and-dagenham", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Barking and Dagenham", "subject_council": "Barking and Dagenham", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.3-ward-uns-reform-no-incumbency", "version": "v1.3", "hash_sha256": "467c29426306194d9f9ec0226f15e5a3c444d4b85637ec6e4370d69e635e88ba", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.1 + Reform-target detection + suppress incumbency in Reform-target wards. n=21 = 14/21 = 66.7%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-3-ward-uns-reform-no-incumbency-2026-05-07-barnet", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-barnet", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Barnet", "subject_council": "Barnet", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.3-ward-uns-reform-no-incumbency", "version": "v1.3", "hash_sha256": "467c29426306194d9f9ec0226f15e5a3c444d4b85637ec6e4370d69e635e88ba", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.1 + Reform-target detection + suppress incumbency in Reform-target wards. n=21 = 14/21 = 66.7%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm-v17-3-ward-uns-reform-no-incumbency-2026-05-07-barnsley", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-barnsley", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Barnsley", "subject_council": "Barnsley", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.3-ward-uns-reform-no-incumbency", "version": "v1.3", "hash_sha256": "467c29426306194d9f9ec0226f15e5a3c444d4b85637ec6e4370d69e635e88ba", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.1 + Reform-target detection + suppress incumbency in Reform-target wards. n=21 = 14/21 = 66.7%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Reform UK", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm-v17-3-ward-uns-reform-no-incumbency-2026-05-07-basildon", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-basildon", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Basildon", "subject_council": "Basildon", "predicted_winner": "Conservative", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.3-ward-uns-reform-no-incumbency", "version": "v1.3", "hash_sha256": "467c29426306194d9f9ec0226f15e5a3c444d4b85637ec6e4370d69e635e88ba", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.1 + Reform-target detection + suppress incumbency in Reform-target wards. n=21 = 14/21 = 66.7%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm-v17-3-ward-uns-reform-no-incumbency-2026-05-07-birmingham", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-birmingham", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Birmingham", "subject_council": "Birmingham", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.3-ward-uns-reform-no-incumbency", "version": "v1.3", "hash_sha256": "467c29426306194d9f9ec0226f15e5a3c444d4b85637ec6e4370d69e635e88ba", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.1 + Reform-target detection + suppress incumbency in Reform-target wards. n=21 = 14/21 = 66.7%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-3-ward-uns-reform-no-incumbency-2026-05-07-bolton", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-bolton", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Bolton", "subject_council": "Bolton", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.3-ward-uns-reform-no-incumbency", "version": "v1.3", "hash_sha256": "467c29426306194d9f9ec0226f15e5a3c444d4b85637ec6e4370d69e635e88ba", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.1 + Reform-target detection + suppress incumbency in Reform-target wards. n=21 = 14/21 = 66.7%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-3-ward-uns-reform-no-incumbency-2026-05-07-bradford", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-bradford", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Bradford", "subject_council": "Bradford", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.3-ward-uns-reform-no-incumbency", "version": "v1.3", "hash_sha256": "467c29426306194d9f9ec0226f15e5a3c444d4b85637ec6e4370d69e635e88ba", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.1 + Reform-target detection + suppress incumbency in Reform-target wards. n=21 = 14/21 = 66.7%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-3-ward-uns-reform-no-incumbency-2026-05-07-bury", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-bury", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Bury", "subject_council": "Bury", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.3-ward-uns-reform-no-incumbency", "version": "v1.3", "hash_sha256": "467c29426306194d9f9ec0226f15e5a3c444d4b85637ec6e4370d69e635e88ba", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.1 + Reform-target detection + suppress incumbency in Reform-target wards. n=21 = 14/21 = 66.7%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm-v17-3-ward-uns-reform-no-incumbency-2026-05-07-calderdale", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-calderdale", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Calderdale", "subject_council": "Calderdale", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.3-ward-uns-reform-no-incumbency", "version": "v1.3", "hash_sha256": "467c29426306194d9f9ec0226f15e5a3c444d4b85637ec6e4370d69e635e88ba", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.1 + Reform-target detection + suppress incumbency in Reform-target wards. n=21 = 14/21 = 66.7%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Reform UK", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm-v17-3-ward-uns-reform-no-incumbency-2026-05-07-cheltenham", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-cheltenham", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Cheltenham", "subject_council": "Cheltenham", "predicted_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.3-ward-uns-reform-no-incumbency", "version": "v1.3", "hash_sha256": "467c29426306194d9f9ec0226f15e5a3c444d4b85637ec6e4370d69e635e88ba", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.1 + Reform-target detection + suppress incumbency in Reform-target wards. n=21 = 14/21 = 66.7%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-3-ward-uns-reform-no-incumbency-2026-05-07-eastleigh", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-eastleigh", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Eastleigh", "subject_council": "Eastleigh", "predicted_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.3-ward-uns-reform-no-incumbency", "version": "v1.3", "hash_sha256": "467c29426306194d9f9ec0226f15e5a3c444d4b85637ec6e4370d69e635e88ba", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.1 + Reform-target detection + suppress incumbency in Reform-target wards. n=21 = 14/21 = 66.7%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-3-ward-uns-reform-no-incumbency-2026-05-07-gateshead", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-gateshead", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Gateshead", "subject_council": "Gateshead", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.3-ward-uns-reform-no-incumbency", "version": "v1.3", "hash_sha256": "467c29426306194d9f9ec0226f15e5a3c444d4b85637ec6e4370d69e635e88ba", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.1 + Reform-target detection + suppress incumbency in Reform-target wards. n=21 = 14/21 = 66.7%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Reform UK", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm-v17-3-ward-uns-reform-no-incumbency-2026-05-07-hartlepool", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-hartlepool", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Hartlepool", "subject_council": "Hartlepool", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.3-ward-uns-reform-no-incumbency", "version": "v1.3", "hash_sha256": "467c29426306194d9f9ec0226f15e5a3c444d4b85637ec6e4370d69e635e88ba", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.1 + Reform-target detection + suppress incumbency in Reform-target wards. n=21 = 14/21 = 66.7%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-3-ward-uns-reform-no-incumbency-2026-05-07-kingston-upon-thames", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-kingston-upon-thames", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Kingston upon Thames", "subject_council": "Kingston upon Thames", "predicted_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.3-ward-uns-reform-no-incumbency", "version": "v1.3", "hash_sha256": "467c29426306194d9f9ec0226f15e5a3c444d4b85637ec6e4370d69e635e88ba", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.1 + Reform-target detection + suppress incumbency in Reform-target wards. n=21 = 14/21 = 66.7%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-3-ward-uns-reform-no-incumbency-2026-05-07-kirklees", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-kirklees", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Kirklees", "subject_council": "Kirklees", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.3-ward-uns-reform-no-incumbency", "version": "v1.3", "hash_sha256": "467c29426306194d9f9ec0226f15e5a3c444d4b85637ec6e4370d69e635e88ba", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.1 + Reform-target detection + suppress incumbency in Reform-target wards. n=21 = 14/21 = 66.7%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-3-ward-uns-reform-no-incumbency-2026-05-07-knowsley", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-knowsley", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Knowsley", "subject_council": "Knowsley", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.3-ward-uns-reform-no-incumbency", "version": "v1.3", "hash_sha256": "467c29426306194d9f9ec0226f15e5a3c444d4b85637ec6e4370d69e635e88ba", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.1 + Reform-target detection + suppress incumbency in Reform-target wards. n=21 = 14/21 = 66.7%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-3-ward-uns-reform-no-incumbency-2026-05-07-leeds", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-leeds", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Leeds", "subject_council": "Leeds", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.3-ward-uns-reform-no-incumbency", "version": "v1.3", "hash_sha256": "467c29426306194d9f9ec0226f15e5a3c444d4b85637ec6e4370d69e635e88ba", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.1 + Reform-target detection + suppress incumbency in Reform-target wards. n=21 = 14/21 = 66.7%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-3-ward-uns-reform-no-incumbency-2026-05-07-manchester", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-manchester", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Manchester", "subject_council": "Manchester", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.3-ward-uns-reform-no-incumbency", "version": "v1.3", "hash_sha256": "467c29426306194d9f9ec0226f15e5a3c444d4b85637ec6e4370d69e635e88ba", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.1 + Reform-target detection + suppress incumbency in Reform-target wards. n=21 = 14/21 = 66.7%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-3-ward-uns-reform-no-incumbency-2026-05-07-merton", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-merton", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Merton", "subject_council": "Merton", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.3-ward-uns-reform-no-incumbency", "version": "v1.3", "hash_sha256": "467c29426306194d9f9ec0226f15e5a3c444d4b85637ec6e4370d69e635e88ba", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.1 + Reform-target detection + suppress incumbency in Reform-target wards. n=21 = 14/21 = 66.7%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm-v17-3-ward-uns-reform-no-incumbency-2026-05-07-newcastle-upon-tyne", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-newcastle-upon-tyne", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Newcastle upon Tyne", "subject_council": "Newcastle upon Tyne", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.3-ward-uns-reform-no-incumbency", "version": "v1.3", "hash_sha256": "467c29426306194d9f9ec0226f15e5a3c444d4b85637ec6e4370d69e635e88ba", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.1 + Reform-target detection + suppress incumbency in Reform-target wards. n=21 = 14/21 = 66.7%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-3-ward-uns-reform-no-incumbency-2026-05-07-oldham", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-oldham", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Oldham", "subject_council": "Oldham", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.3-ward-uns-reform-no-incumbency", "version": "v1.3", "hash_sha256": "467c29426306194d9f9ec0226f15e5a3c444d4b85637ec6e4370d69e635e88ba", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.1 + Reform-target detection + suppress incumbency in Reform-target wards. n=21 = 14/21 = 66.7%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-3-ward-uns-reform-no-incumbency-2026-05-07-richmond-upon-thames", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-richmond-upon-thames", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Richmond upon Thames", "subject_council": "Richmond upon Thames", "predicted_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.3-ward-uns-reform-no-incumbency", "version": "v1.3", "hash_sha256": "467c29426306194d9f9ec0226f15e5a3c444d4b85637ec6e4370d69e635e88ba", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.1 + Reform-target detection + suppress incumbency in Reform-target wards. n=21 = 14/21 = 66.7%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-3-ward-uns-reform-no-incumbency-2026-05-07-rochdale", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-rochdale", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Rochdale", "subject_council": "Rochdale", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.3-ward-uns-reform-no-incumbency", "version": "v1.3", "hash_sha256": "467c29426306194d9f9ec0226f15e5a3c444d4b85637ec6e4370d69e635e88ba", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.1 + Reform-target detection + suppress incumbency in Reform-target wards. n=21 = 14/21 = 66.7%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-3-ward-uns-reform-no-incumbency-2026-05-07-salford", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-salford", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Salford", "subject_council": "Salford", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.3-ward-uns-reform-no-incumbency", "version": "v1.3", "hash_sha256": "467c29426306194d9f9ec0226f15e5a3c444d4b85637ec6e4370d69e635e88ba", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.1 + Reform-target detection + suppress incumbency in Reform-target wards. n=21 = 14/21 = 66.7%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-3-ward-uns-reform-no-incumbency-2026-05-07-sandwell", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-sandwell", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Sandwell", "subject_council": "Sandwell", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.3-ward-uns-reform-no-incumbency", "version": "v1.3", "hash_sha256": "467c29426306194d9f9ec0226f15e5a3c444d4b85637ec6e4370d69e635e88ba", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.1 + Reform-target detection + suppress incumbency in Reform-target wards. n=21 = 14/21 = 66.7%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Reform UK", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm-v17-3-ward-uns-reform-no-incumbency-2026-05-07-sefton", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-sefton", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Sefton", "subject_council": "Sefton", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.3-ward-uns-reform-no-incumbency", "version": "v1.3", "hash_sha256": "467c29426306194d9f9ec0226f15e5a3c444d4b85637ec6e4370d69e635e88ba", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.1 + Reform-target detection + suppress incumbency in Reform-target wards. n=21 = 14/21 = 66.7%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm-v17-3-ward-uns-reform-no-incumbency-2026-05-07-sheffield", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-sheffield", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Sheffield", "subject_council": "Sheffield", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.3-ward-uns-reform-no-incumbency", "version": "v1.3", "hash_sha256": "467c29426306194d9f9ec0226f15e5a3c444d4b85637ec6e4370d69e635e88ba", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.1 + Reform-target detection + suppress incumbency in Reform-target wards. n=21 = 14/21 = 66.7%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-3-ward-uns-reform-no-incumbency-2026-05-07-south-cambridgeshire", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-south-cambridgeshire", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "South Cambridgeshire", "subject_council": "South Cambridgeshire", "predicted_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.3-ward-uns-reform-no-incumbency", "version": "v1.3", "hash_sha256": "467c29426306194d9f9ec0226f15e5a3c444d4b85637ec6e4370d69e635e88ba", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.1 + Reform-target detection + suppress incumbency in Reform-target wards. n=21 = 14/21 = 66.7%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-3-ward-uns-reform-no-incumbency-2026-05-07-stockport", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-stockport", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Stockport", "subject_council": "Stockport", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.3-ward-uns-reform-no-incumbency", "version": "v1.3", "hash_sha256": "467c29426306194d9f9ec0226f15e5a3c444d4b85637ec6e4370d69e635e88ba", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.1 + Reform-target detection + suppress incumbency in Reform-target wards. n=21 = 14/21 = 66.7%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm-v17-3-ward-uns-reform-no-incumbency-2026-05-07-sunderland", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-sunderland", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Sunderland", "subject_council": "Sunderland", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.3-ward-uns-reform-no-incumbency", "version": "v1.3", "hash_sha256": "467c29426306194d9f9ec0226f15e5a3c444d4b85637ec6e4370d69e635e88ba", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.1 + Reform-target detection + suppress incumbency in Reform-target wards. n=21 = 14/21 = 66.7%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Reform UK", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm-v17-3-ward-uns-reform-no-incumbency-2026-05-07-sutton", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-sutton", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Sutton", "subject_council": "Sutton", "predicted_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.3-ward-uns-reform-no-incumbency", "version": "v1.3", "hash_sha256": "467c29426306194d9f9ec0226f15e5a3c444d4b85637ec6e4370d69e635e88ba", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.1 + Reform-target detection + suppress incumbency in Reform-target wards. n=21 = 14/21 = 66.7%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-3-ward-uns-reform-no-incumbency-2026-05-07-tameside", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-tameside", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Tameside", "subject_council": "Tameside", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.3-ward-uns-reform-no-incumbency", "version": "v1.3", "hash_sha256": "467c29426306194d9f9ec0226f15e5a3c444d4b85637ec6e4370d69e635e88ba", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.1 + Reform-target detection + suppress incumbency in Reform-target wards. n=21 = 14/21 = 66.7%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm-v17-3-ward-uns-reform-no-incumbency-2026-05-07-trafford", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-trafford", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Trafford", "subject_council": "Trafford", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.3-ward-uns-reform-no-incumbency", "version": "v1.3", "hash_sha256": "467c29426306194d9f9ec0226f15e5a3c444d4b85637ec6e4370d69e635e88ba", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.1 + Reform-target detection + suppress incumbency in Reform-target wards. n=21 = 14/21 = 66.7%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-3-ward-uns-reform-no-incumbency-2026-05-07-wakefield", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-wakefield", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Wakefield", "subject_council": "Wakefield", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.3-ward-uns-reform-no-incumbency", "version": "v1.3", "hash_sha256": "467c29426306194d9f9ec0226f15e5a3c444d4b85637ec6e4370d69e635e88ba", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.1 + Reform-target detection + suppress incumbency in Reform-target wards. n=21 = 14/21 = 66.7%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Reform UK", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm-v17-3-ward-uns-reform-no-incumbency-2026-05-07-wigan", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-wigan", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Wigan", "subject_council": "Wigan", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.3-ward-uns-reform-no-incumbency", "version": "v1.3", "hash_sha256": "467c29426306194d9f9ec0226f15e5a3c444d4b85637ec6e4370d69e635e88ba", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.1 + Reform-target detection + suppress incumbency in Reform-target wards. n=21 = 14/21 = 66.7%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-3-ward-uns-reform-no-incumbency-2026-05-07-wolverhampton", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-wolverhampton", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Wolverhampton", "subject_council": "Wolverhampton", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.3-ward-uns-reform-no-incumbency", "version": "v1.3", "hash_sha256": "467c29426306194d9f9ec0226f15e5a3c444d4b85637ec6e4370d69e635e88ba", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.1 + Reform-target detection + suppress incumbency in Reform-target wards. n=21 = 14/21 = 66.7%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm-v17-6-council-reform-override-2026-05-07-adur", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-adur", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Adur", "subject_council": "Adur", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.6-council-reform-override", "version": "v1.6", "hash_sha256": "141c405a9c9861e09cd067fd20d5204edc4862b5741b5ca74341ed042e8822c1", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.3 + council-level Reform-emergence outcome override. n=21 = 16/21 = 76.2%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-6-council-reform-override-2026-05-07-barking-and-dagenham", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-barking-and-dagenham", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Barking and Dagenham", "subject_council": "Barking and Dagenham", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.6-council-reform-override", "version": "v1.6", "hash_sha256": "141c405a9c9861e09cd067fd20d5204edc4862b5741b5ca74341ed042e8822c1", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.3 + council-level Reform-emergence outcome override. n=21 = 16/21 = 76.2%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-6-council-reform-override-2026-05-07-barnet", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-barnet", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Barnet", "subject_council": "Barnet", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.6-council-reform-override", "version": "v1.6", "hash_sha256": "141c405a9c9861e09cd067fd20d5204edc4862b5741b5ca74341ed042e8822c1", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.3 + council-level Reform-emergence outcome override. n=21 = 16/21 = 76.2%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm-v17-6-council-reform-override-2026-05-07-barnsley", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-barnsley", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Barnsley", "subject_council": "Barnsley", "predicted_winner": "Reform UK", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.6-council-reform-override", "version": "v1.6", "hash_sha256": "141c405a9c9861e09cd067fd20d5204edc4862b5741b5ca74341ed042e8822c1", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.3 + council-level Reform-emergence outcome override. n=21 = 16/21 = 76.2%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Reform UK", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-6-council-reform-override-2026-05-07-basildon", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-basildon", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Basildon", "subject_council": "Basildon", "predicted_winner": "Conservative", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.6-council-reform-override", "version": "v1.6", "hash_sha256": "141c405a9c9861e09cd067fd20d5204edc4862b5741b5ca74341ed042e8822c1", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.3 + council-level Reform-emergence outcome override. n=21 = 16/21 = 76.2%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm-v17-6-council-reform-override-2026-05-07-birmingham", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-birmingham", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Birmingham", "subject_council": "Birmingham", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.6-council-reform-override", "version": "v1.6", "hash_sha256": "141c405a9c9861e09cd067fd20d5204edc4862b5741b5ca74341ed042e8822c1", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.3 + council-level Reform-emergence outcome override. n=21 = 16/21 = 76.2%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-6-council-reform-override-2026-05-07-bolton", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-bolton", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Bolton", "subject_council": "Bolton", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.6-council-reform-override", "version": "v1.6", "hash_sha256": "141c405a9c9861e09cd067fd20d5204edc4862b5741b5ca74341ed042e8822c1", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.3 + council-level Reform-emergence outcome override. n=21 = 16/21 = 76.2%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-6-council-reform-override-2026-05-07-bradford", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-bradford", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Bradford", "subject_council": "Bradford", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.6-council-reform-override", "version": "v1.6", "hash_sha256": "141c405a9c9861e09cd067fd20d5204edc4862b5741b5ca74341ed042e8822c1", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.3 + council-level Reform-emergence outcome override. n=21 = 16/21 = 76.2%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-6-council-reform-override-2026-05-07-bury", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-bury", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Bury", "subject_council": "Bury", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.6-council-reform-override", "version": "v1.6", "hash_sha256": "141c405a9c9861e09cd067fd20d5204edc4862b5741b5ca74341ed042e8822c1", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.3 + council-level Reform-emergence outcome override. n=21 = 16/21 = 76.2%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm-v17-6-council-reform-override-2026-05-07-calderdale", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-calderdale", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Calderdale", "subject_council": "Calderdale", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.6-council-reform-override", "version": "v1.6", "hash_sha256": "141c405a9c9861e09cd067fd20d5204edc4862b5741b5ca74341ed042e8822c1", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.3 + council-level Reform-emergence outcome override. n=21 = 16/21 = 76.2%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Reform UK", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm-v17-6-council-reform-override-2026-05-07-cheltenham", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-cheltenham", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Cheltenham", "subject_council": "Cheltenham", "predicted_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.6-council-reform-override", "version": "v1.6", "hash_sha256": "141c405a9c9861e09cd067fd20d5204edc4862b5741b5ca74341ed042e8822c1", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.3 + council-level Reform-emergence outcome override. n=21 = 16/21 = 76.2%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-6-council-reform-override-2026-05-07-eastleigh", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-eastleigh", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Eastleigh", "subject_council": "Eastleigh", "predicted_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.6-council-reform-override", "version": "v1.6", "hash_sha256": "141c405a9c9861e09cd067fd20d5204edc4862b5741b5ca74341ed042e8822c1", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.3 + council-level Reform-emergence outcome override. n=21 = 16/21 = 76.2%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-6-council-reform-override-2026-05-07-gateshead", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-gateshead", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Gateshead", "subject_council": "Gateshead", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.6-council-reform-override", "version": "v1.6", "hash_sha256": "141c405a9c9861e09cd067fd20d5204edc4862b5741b5ca74341ed042e8822c1", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.3 + council-level Reform-emergence outcome override. n=21 = 16/21 = 76.2%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Reform UK", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm-v17-6-council-reform-override-2026-05-07-hartlepool", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-hartlepool", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Hartlepool", "subject_council": "Hartlepool", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.6-council-reform-override", "version": "v1.6", "hash_sha256": "141c405a9c9861e09cd067fd20d5204edc4862b5741b5ca74341ed042e8822c1", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.3 + council-level Reform-emergence outcome override. n=21 = 16/21 = 76.2%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-6-council-reform-override-2026-05-07-kingston-upon-thames", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-kingston-upon-thames", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Kingston upon Thames", "subject_council": "Kingston upon Thames", "predicted_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.6-council-reform-override", "version": "v1.6", "hash_sha256": "141c405a9c9861e09cd067fd20d5204edc4862b5741b5ca74341ed042e8822c1", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.3 + council-level Reform-emergence outcome override. n=21 = 16/21 = 76.2%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-6-council-reform-override-2026-05-07-kirklees", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-kirklees", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Kirklees", "subject_council": "Kirklees", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.6-council-reform-override", "version": "v1.6", "hash_sha256": "141c405a9c9861e09cd067fd20d5204edc4862b5741b5ca74341ed042e8822c1", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.3 + council-level Reform-emergence outcome override. n=21 = 16/21 = 76.2%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-6-council-reform-override-2026-05-07-knowsley", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-knowsley", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Knowsley", "subject_council": "Knowsley", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.6-council-reform-override", "version": "v1.6", "hash_sha256": "141c405a9c9861e09cd067fd20d5204edc4862b5741b5ca74341ed042e8822c1", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.3 + council-level Reform-emergence outcome override. n=21 = 16/21 = 76.2%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-6-council-reform-override-2026-05-07-leeds", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-leeds", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Leeds", "subject_council": "Leeds", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.6-council-reform-override", "version": "v1.6", "hash_sha256": "141c405a9c9861e09cd067fd20d5204edc4862b5741b5ca74341ed042e8822c1", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.3 + council-level Reform-emergence outcome override. n=21 = 16/21 = 76.2%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-6-council-reform-override-2026-05-07-manchester", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-manchester", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Manchester", "subject_council": "Manchester", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.6-council-reform-override", "version": "v1.6", "hash_sha256": "141c405a9c9861e09cd067fd20d5204edc4862b5741b5ca74341ed042e8822c1", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.3 + council-level Reform-emergence outcome override. n=21 = 16/21 = 76.2%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-6-council-reform-override-2026-05-07-merton", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-merton", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Merton", "subject_council": "Merton", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.6-council-reform-override", "version": "v1.6", "hash_sha256": "141c405a9c9861e09cd067fd20d5204edc4862b5741b5ca74341ed042e8822c1", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.3 + council-level Reform-emergence outcome override. n=21 = 16/21 = 76.2%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm-v17-6-council-reform-override-2026-05-07-newcastle-upon-tyne", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-newcastle-upon-tyne", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Newcastle upon Tyne", "subject_council": "Newcastle upon Tyne", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.6-council-reform-override", "version": "v1.6", "hash_sha256": "141c405a9c9861e09cd067fd20d5204edc4862b5741b5ca74341ed042e8822c1", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.3 + council-level Reform-emergence outcome override. n=21 = 16/21 = 76.2%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-6-council-reform-override-2026-05-07-oldham", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-oldham", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Oldham", "subject_council": "Oldham", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.6-council-reform-override", "version": "v1.6", "hash_sha256": "141c405a9c9861e09cd067fd20d5204edc4862b5741b5ca74341ed042e8822c1", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.3 + council-level Reform-emergence outcome override. n=21 = 16/21 = 76.2%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-6-council-reform-override-2026-05-07-richmond-upon-thames", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-richmond-upon-thames", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Richmond upon Thames", "subject_council": "Richmond upon Thames", "predicted_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.6-council-reform-override", "version": "v1.6", "hash_sha256": "141c405a9c9861e09cd067fd20d5204edc4862b5741b5ca74341ed042e8822c1", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.3 + council-level Reform-emergence outcome override. n=21 = 16/21 = 76.2%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-6-council-reform-override-2026-05-07-rochdale", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-rochdale", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Rochdale", "subject_council": "Rochdale", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.6-council-reform-override", "version": "v1.6", "hash_sha256": "141c405a9c9861e09cd067fd20d5204edc4862b5741b5ca74341ed042e8822c1", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.3 + council-level Reform-emergence outcome override. n=21 = 16/21 = 76.2%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-6-council-reform-override-2026-05-07-salford", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-salford", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Salford", "subject_council": "Salford", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.6-council-reform-override", "version": "v1.6", "hash_sha256": "141c405a9c9861e09cd067fd20d5204edc4862b5741b5ca74341ed042e8822c1", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.3 + council-level Reform-emergence outcome override. n=21 = 16/21 = 76.2%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-6-council-reform-override-2026-05-07-sandwell", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-sandwell", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Sandwell", "subject_council": "Sandwell", "predicted_winner": "Reform UK", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.6-council-reform-override", "version": "v1.6", "hash_sha256": "141c405a9c9861e09cd067fd20d5204edc4862b5741b5ca74341ed042e8822c1", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.3 + council-level Reform-emergence outcome override. n=21 = 16/21 = 76.2%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Reform UK", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-6-council-reform-override-2026-05-07-sefton", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-sefton", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Sefton", "subject_council": "Sefton", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.6-council-reform-override", "version": "v1.6", "hash_sha256": "141c405a9c9861e09cd067fd20d5204edc4862b5741b5ca74341ed042e8822c1", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.3 + council-level Reform-emergence outcome override. n=21 = 16/21 = 76.2%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm-v17-6-council-reform-override-2026-05-07-sheffield", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-sheffield", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Sheffield", "subject_council": "Sheffield", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.6-council-reform-override", "version": "v1.6", "hash_sha256": "141c405a9c9861e09cd067fd20d5204edc4862b5741b5ca74341ed042e8822c1", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.3 + council-level Reform-emergence outcome override. n=21 = 16/21 = 76.2%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-6-council-reform-override-2026-05-07-south-cambridgeshire", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-south-cambridgeshire", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "South Cambridgeshire", "subject_council": "South Cambridgeshire", "predicted_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.6-council-reform-override", "version": "v1.6", "hash_sha256": "141c405a9c9861e09cd067fd20d5204edc4862b5741b5ca74341ed042e8822c1", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.3 + council-level Reform-emergence outcome override. n=21 = 16/21 = 76.2%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-6-council-reform-override-2026-05-07-stockport", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-stockport", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Stockport", "subject_council": "Stockport", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.6-council-reform-override", "version": "v1.6", "hash_sha256": "141c405a9c9861e09cd067fd20d5204edc4862b5741b5ca74341ed042e8822c1", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.3 + council-level Reform-emergence outcome override. n=21 = 16/21 = 76.2%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm-v17-6-council-reform-override-2026-05-07-sunderland", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-sunderland", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Sunderland", "subject_council": "Sunderland", "predicted_winner": "Reform UK", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.6-council-reform-override", "version": "v1.6", "hash_sha256": "141c405a9c9861e09cd067fd20d5204edc4862b5741b5ca74341ed042e8822c1", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.3 + council-level Reform-emergence outcome override. n=21 = 16/21 = 76.2%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Reform UK", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-6-council-reform-override-2026-05-07-sutton", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-sutton", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Sutton", "subject_council": "Sutton", "predicted_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.6-council-reform-override", "version": "v1.6", "hash_sha256": "141c405a9c9861e09cd067fd20d5204edc4862b5741b5ca74341ed042e8822c1", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.3 + council-level Reform-emergence outcome override. n=21 = 16/21 = 76.2%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-6-council-reform-override-2026-05-07-tameside", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-tameside", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Tameside", "subject_council": "Tameside", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.6-council-reform-override", "version": "v1.6", "hash_sha256": "141c405a9c9861e09cd067fd20d5204edc4862b5741b5ca74341ed042e8822c1", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.3 + council-level Reform-emergence outcome override. n=21 = 16/21 = 76.2%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm-v17-6-council-reform-override-2026-05-07-trafford", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-trafford", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Trafford", "subject_council": "Trafford", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.6-council-reform-override", "version": "v1.6", "hash_sha256": "141c405a9c9861e09cd067fd20d5204edc4862b5741b5ca74341ed042e8822c1", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.3 + council-level Reform-emergence outcome override. n=21 = 16/21 = 76.2%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-6-council-reform-override-2026-05-07-wakefield", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-wakefield", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Wakefield", "subject_council": "Wakefield", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.6-council-reform-override", "version": "v1.6", "hash_sha256": "141c405a9c9861e09cd067fd20d5204edc4862b5741b5ca74341ed042e8822c1", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.3 + council-level Reform-emergence outcome override. n=21 = 16/21 = 76.2%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Reform UK", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm-v17-6-council-reform-override-2026-05-07-wigan", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-wigan", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Wigan", "subject_council": "Wigan", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.6-council-reform-override", "version": "v1.6", "hash_sha256": "141c405a9c9861e09cd067fd20d5204edc4862b5741b5ca74341ed042e8822c1", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.3 + council-level Reform-emergence outcome override. n=21 = 16/21 = 76.2%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-6-council-reform-override-2026-05-07-wolverhampton", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-wolverhampton", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Wolverhampton", "subject_council": "Wolverhampton", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.6-council-reform-override", "version": "v1.6", "hash_sha256": "141c405a9c9861e09cd067fd20d5204edc4862b5741b5ca74341ed042e8822c1", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.3 + council-level Reform-emergence outcome override. n=21 = 16/21 = 76.2%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm-v17-7-io-census-indep-2026-05-07-adur", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-adur", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Adur", "subject_council": "Adur", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.7-io-census-indep", "version": "v1.7-io", "hash_sha256": "3d9435e5c4bd4d745a7785759def9202e69ee70b31f449d8b76cb9c4ae1564df", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.6 + per-ward Indep override (Census Muslim>=60%). n=21 = 16/21 = 76.2%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-7-io-census-indep-2026-05-07-barking-and-dagenham", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-barking-and-dagenham", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Barking and Dagenham", "subject_council": "Barking and Dagenham", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.7-io-census-indep", "version": "v1.7-io", "hash_sha256": "3d9435e5c4bd4d745a7785759def9202e69ee70b31f449d8b76cb9c4ae1564df", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.6 + per-ward Indep override (Census Muslim>=60%). n=21 = 16/21 = 76.2%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-7-io-census-indep-2026-05-07-barnet", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-barnet", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Barnet", "subject_council": "Barnet", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.7-io-census-indep", "version": "v1.7-io", "hash_sha256": "3d9435e5c4bd4d745a7785759def9202e69ee70b31f449d8b76cb9c4ae1564df", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.6 + per-ward Indep override (Census Muslim>=60%). n=21 = 16/21 = 76.2%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm-v17-7-io-census-indep-2026-05-07-barnsley", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-barnsley", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Barnsley", "subject_council": "Barnsley", "predicted_winner": "Reform UK", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.7-io-census-indep", "version": "v1.7-io", "hash_sha256": "3d9435e5c4bd4d745a7785759def9202e69ee70b31f449d8b76cb9c4ae1564df", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.6 + per-ward Indep override (Census Muslim>=60%). n=21 = 16/21 = 76.2%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Reform UK", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-7-io-census-indep-2026-05-07-basildon", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-basildon", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Basildon", "subject_council": "Basildon", "predicted_winner": "Conservative", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.7-io-census-indep", "version": "v1.7-io", "hash_sha256": "3d9435e5c4bd4d745a7785759def9202e69ee70b31f449d8b76cb9c4ae1564df", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.6 + per-ward Indep override (Census Muslim>=60%). n=21 = 16/21 = 76.2%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm-v17-7-io-census-indep-2026-05-07-birmingham", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-birmingham", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Birmingham", "subject_council": "Birmingham", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.7-io-census-indep", "version": "v1.7-io", "hash_sha256": "3d9435e5c4bd4d745a7785759def9202e69ee70b31f449d8b76cb9c4ae1564df", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.6 + per-ward Indep override (Census Muslim>=60%). n=21 = 16/21 = 76.2%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-7-io-census-indep-2026-05-07-bolton", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-bolton", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Bolton", "subject_council": "Bolton", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.7-io-census-indep", "version": "v1.7-io", "hash_sha256": "3d9435e5c4bd4d745a7785759def9202e69ee70b31f449d8b76cb9c4ae1564df", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.6 + per-ward Indep override (Census Muslim>=60%). n=21 = 16/21 = 76.2%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-7-io-census-indep-2026-05-07-bradford", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-bradford", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Bradford", "subject_council": "Bradford", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.7-io-census-indep", "version": "v1.7-io", "hash_sha256": "3d9435e5c4bd4d745a7785759def9202e69ee70b31f449d8b76cb9c4ae1564df", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.6 + per-ward Indep override (Census Muslim>=60%). n=21 = 16/21 = 76.2%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-7-io-census-indep-2026-05-07-bury", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-bury", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Bury", "subject_council": "Bury", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.7-io-census-indep", "version": "v1.7-io", "hash_sha256": "3d9435e5c4bd4d745a7785759def9202e69ee70b31f449d8b76cb9c4ae1564df", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.6 + per-ward Indep override (Census Muslim>=60%). n=21 = 16/21 = 76.2%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm-v17-7-io-census-indep-2026-05-07-calderdale", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-calderdale", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Calderdale", "subject_council": "Calderdale", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.7-io-census-indep", "version": "v1.7-io", "hash_sha256": "3d9435e5c4bd4d745a7785759def9202e69ee70b31f449d8b76cb9c4ae1564df", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.6 + per-ward Indep override (Census Muslim>=60%). n=21 = 16/21 = 76.2%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Reform UK", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm-v17-7-io-census-indep-2026-05-07-cheltenham", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-cheltenham", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Cheltenham", "subject_council": "Cheltenham", "predicted_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.7-io-census-indep", "version": "v1.7-io", "hash_sha256": "3d9435e5c4bd4d745a7785759def9202e69ee70b31f449d8b76cb9c4ae1564df", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.6 + per-ward Indep override (Census Muslim>=60%). n=21 = 16/21 = 76.2%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-7-io-census-indep-2026-05-07-eastleigh", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-eastleigh", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Eastleigh", "subject_council": "Eastleigh", "predicted_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.7-io-census-indep", "version": "v1.7-io", "hash_sha256": "3d9435e5c4bd4d745a7785759def9202e69ee70b31f449d8b76cb9c4ae1564df", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.6 + per-ward Indep override (Census Muslim>=60%). n=21 = 16/21 = 76.2%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-7-io-census-indep-2026-05-07-gateshead", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-gateshead", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Gateshead", "subject_council": "Gateshead", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.7-io-census-indep", "version": "v1.7-io", "hash_sha256": "3d9435e5c4bd4d745a7785759def9202e69ee70b31f449d8b76cb9c4ae1564df", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.6 + per-ward Indep override (Census Muslim>=60%). n=21 = 16/21 = 76.2%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Reform UK", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm-v17-7-io-census-indep-2026-05-07-hartlepool", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-hartlepool", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Hartlepool", "subject_council": "Hartlepool", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.7-io-census-indep", "version": "v1.7-io", "hash_sha256": "3d9435e5c4bd4d745a7785759def9202e69ee70b31f449d8b76cb9c4ae1564df", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.6 + per-ward Indep override (Census Muslim>=60%). n=21 = 16/21 = 76.2%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-7-io-census-indep-2026-05-07-kingston-upon-thames", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-kingston-upon-thames", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Kingston upon Thames", "subject_council": "Kingston upon Thames", "predicted_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.7-io-census-indep", "version": "v1.7-io", "hash_sha256": "3d9435e5c4bd4d745a7785759def9202e69ee70b31f449d8b76cb9c4ae1564df", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.6 + per-ward Indep override (Census Muslim>=60%). n=21 = 16/21 = 76.2%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-7-io-census-indep-2026-05-07-kirklees", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-kirklees", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Kirklees", "subject_council": "Kirklees", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.7-io-census-indep", "version": "v1.7-io", "hash_sha256": "3d9435e5c4bd4d745a7785759def9202e69ee70b31f449d8b76cb9c4ae1564df", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.6 + per-ward Indep override (Census 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"2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-7-io-census-indep-2026-05-07-leeds", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-leeds", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Leeds", "subject_council": "Leeds", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.7-io-census-indep", "version": "v1.7-io", "hash_sha256": "3d9435e5c4bd4d745a7785759def9202e69ee70b31f449d8b76cb9c4ae1564df", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.6 + per-ward Indep override (Census Muslim>=60%). n=21 = 16/21 = 76.2%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-7-io-census-indep-2026-05-07-manchester", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-manchester", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Manchester", "subject_council": "Manchester", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.7-io-census-indep", "version": "v1.7-io", "hash_sha256": "3d9435e5c4bd4d745a7785759def9202e69ee70b31f449d8b76cb9c4ae1564df", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.6 + per-ward Indep override (Census Muslim>=60%). n=21 = 16/21 = 76.2%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-7-io-census-indep-2026-05-07-merton", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-merton", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Merton", "subject_council": "Merton", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.7-io-census-indep", "version": "v1.7-io", "hash_sha256": "3d9435e5c4bd4d745a7785759def9202e69ee70b31f449d8b76cb9c4ae1564df", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.6 + per-ward Indep override (Census Muslim>=60%). n=21 = 16/21 = 76.2%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm-v17-7-io-census-indep-2026-05-07-newcastle-upon-tyne", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-newcastle-upon-tyne", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Newcastle upon Tyne", "subject_council": "Newcastle upon Tyne", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.7-io-census-indep", "version": "v1.7-io", "hash_sha256": "3d9435e5c4bd4d745a7785759def9202e69ee70b31f449d8b76cb9c4ae1564df", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.6 + per-ward Indep override (Census Muslim>=60%). n=21 = 16/21 = 76.2%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-7-io-census-indep-2026-05-07-oldham", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-oldham", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Oldham", "subject_council": "Oldham", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.7-io-census-indep", "version": "v1.7-io", "hash_sha256": "3d9435e5c4bd4d745a7785759def9202e69ee70b31f449d8b76cb9c4ae1564df", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.6 + per-ward Indep override (Census Muslim>=60%). n=21 = 16/21 = 76.2%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API 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"2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-7-io-census-indep-2026-05-07-rochdale", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-rochdale", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Rochdale", "subject_council": "Rochdale", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.7-io-census-indep", "version": "v1.7-io", "hash_sha256": "3d9435e5c4bd4d745a7785759def9202e69ee70b31f449d8b76cb9c4ae1564df", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.6 + per-ward Indep override (Census Muslim>=60%). n=21 = 16/21 = 76.2%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-7-io-census-indep-2026-05-07-salford", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-salford", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Salford", "subject_council": "Salford", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.7-io-census-indep", "version": "v1.7-io", "hash_sha256": "3d9435e5c4bd4d745a7785759def9202e69ee70b31f449d8b76cb9c4ae1564df", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.6 + per-ward Indep override (Census Muslim>=60%). n=21 = 16/21 = 76.2%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-7-io-census-indep-2026-05-07-sandwell", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-sandwell", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Sandwell", "subject_council": "Sandwell", "predicted_winner": "Reform UK", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.7-io-census-indep", "version": "v1.7-io", "hash_sha256": "3d9435e5c4bd4d745a7785759def9202e69ee70b31f449d8b76cb9c4ae1564df", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.6 + per-ward Indep override (Census Muslim>=60%). n=21 = 16/21 = 76.2%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Reform UK", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-7-io-census-indep-2026-05-07-sefton", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-sefton", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Sefton", "subject_council": "Sefton", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.7-io-census-indep", "version": "v1.7-io", "hash_sha256": "3d9435e5c4bd4d745a7785759def9202e69ee70b31f449d8b76cb9c4ae1564df", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.6 + per-ward Indep override 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control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-7-io-census-indep-2026-05-07-south-cambridgeshire", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-south-cambridgeshire", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "South Cambridgeshire", "subject_council": "South Cambridgeshire", "predicted_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.7-io-census-indep", "version": "v1.7-io", "hash_sha256": "3d9435e5c4bd4d745a7785759def9202e69ee70b31f449d8b76cb9c4ae1564df", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.6 + per-ward Indep override (Census Muslim>=60%). n=21 = 16/21 = 76.2%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-7-io-census-indep-2026-05-07-stockport", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-stockport", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Stockport", "subject_council": "Stockport", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.7-io-census-indep", "version": "v1.7-io", "hash_sha256": "3d9435e5c4bd4d745a7785759def9202e69ee70b31f449d8b76cb9c4ae1564df", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.6 + per-ward Indep override (Census Muslim>=60%). n=21 = 16/21 = 76.2%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm-v17-7-io-census-indep-2026-05-07-sunderland", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-sunderland", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Sunderland", "subject_council": "Sunderland", "predicted_winner": "Reform UK", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.7-io-census-indep", "version": "v1.7-io", "hash_sha256": "3d9435e5c4bd4d745a7785759def9202e69ee70b31f449d8b76cb9c4ae1564df", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.6 + per-ward Indep override (Census Muslim>=60%). n=21 = 16/21 = 76.2%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Reform UK", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-7-io-census-indep-2026-05-07-sutton", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-sutton", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Sutton", "subject_council": "Sutton", "predicted_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.7-io-census-indep", "version": "v1.7-io", "hash_sha256": "3d9435e5c4bd4d745a7785759def9202e69ee70b31f449d8b76cb9c4ae1564df", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.6 + per-ward Indep override (Census Muslim>=60%). n=21 = 16/21 = 76.2%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-7-io-census-indep-2026-05-07-tameside", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-tameside", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Tameside", "subject_council": "Tameside", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.7-io-census-indep", "version": "v1.7-io", "hash_sha256": "3d9435e5c4bd4d745a7785759def9202e69ee70b31f449d8b76cb9c4ae1564df", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.6 + per-ward Indep override (Census Muslim>=60%). n=21 = 16/21 = 76.2%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm-v17-7-io-census-indep-2026-05-07-trafford", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-trafford", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Trafford", "subject_council": "Trafford", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.7-io-census-indep", "version": "v1.7-io", "hash_sha256": "3d9435e5c4bd4d745a7785759def9202e69ee70b31f449d8b76cb9c4ae1564df", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.6 + per-ward Indep override (Census Muslim>=60%). n=21 = 16/21 = 76.2%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-7-io-census-indep-2026-05-07-wakefield", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-wakefield", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Wakefield", "subject_council": "Wakefield", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.7-io-census-indep", "version": "v1.7-io", "hash_sha256": "3d9435e5c4bd4d745a7785759def9202e69ee70b31f449d8b76cb9c4ae1564df", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.6 + per-ward Indep override (Census Muslim>=60%). n=21 = 16/21 = 76.2%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Reform UK", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm-v17-7-io-census-indep-2026-05-07-wigan", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-wigan", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Wigan", "subject_council": "Wigan", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.7-io-census-indep", "version": "v1.7-io", "hash_sha256": "3d9435e5c4bd4d745a7785759def9202e69ee70b31f449d8b76cb9c4ae1564df", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.6 + per-ward Indep override (Census Muslim>=60%). n=21 = 16/21 = 76.2%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-7-io-census-indep-2026-05-07-wolverhampton", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-wolverhampton", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Wolverhampton", "subject_council": "Wolverhampton", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.7-io-census-indep", "version": "v1.7-io", "hash_sha256": "3d9435e5c4bd4d745a7785759def9202e69ee70b31f449d8b76cb9c4ae1564df", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.6 + per-ward Indep override (Census Muslim>=60%). n=21 = 16/21 = 76.2%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm-v17-8-brexit-2026-05-07-adur", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-adur", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Adur", "subject_council": "Adur", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.8-brexit", "version": "v1.8", "hash_sha256": "f71a4cd17ea60143a646c6bffd5433e7dac332e83a899e6c37c6cee19405f7d4", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.6 + Brexit 2016 council Leave>=60% Reform-target. n=21 = 17/21 = 81.0%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-8-brexit-2026-05-07-barking-and-dagenham", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-barking-and-dagenham", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Barking and Dagenham", "subject_council": "Barking and Dagenham", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.8-brexit", "version": "v1.8", "hash_sha256": "f71a4cd17ea60143a646c6bffd5433e7dac332e83a899e6c37c6cee19405f7d4", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.6 + Brexit 2016 council Leave>=60% Reform-target. n=21 = 17/21 = 81.0%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-8-brexit-2026-05-07-barnet", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-barnet", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Barnet", "subject_council": "Barnet", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.8-brexit", "version": "v1.8", "hash_sha256": "f71a4cd17ea60143a646c6bffd5433e7dac332e83a899e6c37c6cee19405f7d4", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.6 + Brexit 2016 council Leave>=60% Reform-target. n=21 = 17/21 = 81.0%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm-v17-8-brexit-2026-05-07-barnsley", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-barnsley", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Barnsley", "subject_council": "Barnsley", "predicted_winner": "Reform UK", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.8-brexit", "version": "v1.8", "hash_sha256": "f71a4cd17ea60143a646c6bffd5433e7dac332e83a899e6c37c6cee19405f7d4", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.6 + Brexit 2016 council Leave>=60% Reform-target. n=21 = 17/21 = 81.0%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Reform UK", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-8-brexit-2026-05-07-basildon", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-basildon", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Basildon", "subject_council": "Basildon", "predicted_winner": "Conservative", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.8-brexit", "version": "v1.8", "hash_sha256": "f71a4cd17ea60143a646c6bffd5433e7dac332e83a899e6c37c6cee19405f7d4", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.6 + Brexit 2016 council Leave>=60% Reform-target. n=21 = 17/21 = 81.0%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm-v17-8-brexit-2026-05-07-birmingham", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-birmingham", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Birmingham", "subject_council": "Birmingham", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.8-brexit", "version": "v1.8", "hash_sha256": "f71a4cd17ea60143a646c6bffd5433e7dac332e83a899e6c37c6cee19405f7d4", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.6 + Brexit 2016 council Leave>=60% Reform-target. n=21 = 17/21 = 81.0%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-8-brexit-2026-05-07-bolton", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-bolton", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Bolton", "subject_council": "Bolton", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.8-brexit", "version": "v1.8", "hash_sha256": "f71a4cd17ea60143a646c6bffd5433e7dac332e83a899e6c37c6cee19405f7d4", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.6 + Brexit 2016 council Leave>=60% Reform-target. n=21 = 17/21 = 81.0%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-8-brexit-2026-05-07-bradford", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-bradford", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Bradford", "subject_council": "Bradford", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.8-brexit", "version": "v1.8", "hash_sha256": "f71a4cd17ea60143a646c6bffd5433e7dac332e83a899e6c37c6cee19405f7d4", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.6 + Brexit 2016 council Leave>=60% Reform-target. n=21 = 17/21 = 81.0%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-8-brexit-2026-05-07-bury", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-bury", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Bury", "subject_council": "Bury", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.8-brexit", "version": "v1.8", "hash_sha256": "f71a4cd17ea60143a646c6bffd5433e7dac332e83a899e6c37c6cee19405f7d4", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.6 + Brexit 2016 council Leave>=60% Reform-target. n=21 = 17/21 = 81.0%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm-v17-8-brexit-2026-05-07-calderdale", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-calderdale", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Calderdale", "subject_council": "Calderdale", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.8-brexit", "version": "v1.8", "hash_sha256": "f71a4cd17ea60143a646c6bffd5433e7dac332e83a899e6c37c6cee19405f7d4", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.6 + Brexit 2016 council Leave>=60% Reform-target. n=21 = 17/21 = 81.0%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Reform UK", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm-v17-8-brexit-2026-05-07-cheltenham", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-cheltenham", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Cheltenham", "subject_council": "Cheltenham", "predicted_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.8-brexit", "version": "v1.8", "hash_sha256": "f71a4cd17ea60143a646c6bffd5433e7dac332e83a899e6c37c6cee19405f7d4", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.6 + Brexit 2016 council Leave>=60% Reform-target. n=21 = 17/21 = 81.0%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-8-brexit-2026-05-07-eastleigh", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-eastleigh", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Eastleigh", "subject_council": "Eastleigh", "predicted_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.8-brexit", "version": "v1.8", "hash_sha256": "f71a4cd17ea60143a646c6bffd5433e7dac332e83a899e6c37c6cee19405f7d4", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.6 + Brexit 2016 council Leave>=60% Reform-target. n=21 = 17/21 = 81.0%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-8-brexit-2026-05-07-gateshead", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-gateshead", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Gateshead", "subject_council": "Gateshead", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.8-brexit", "version": "v1.8", "hash_sha256": "f71a4cd17ea60143a646c6bffd5433e7dac332e83a899e6c37c6cee19405f7d4", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.6 + Brexit 2016 council Leave>=60% Reform-target. n=21 = 17/21 = 81.0%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Reform UK", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm-v17-8-brexit-2026-05-07-hartlepool", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-hartlepool", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Hartlepool", "subject_council": "Hartlepool", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.8-brexit", "version": "v1.8", "hash_sha256": "f71a4cd17ea60143a646c6bffd5433e7dac332e83a899e6c37c6cee19405f7d4", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.6 + Brexit 2016 council Leave>=60% Reform-target. n=21 = 17/21 = 81.0%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-8-brexit-2026-05-07-kingston-upon-thames", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-kingston-upon-thames", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Kingston upon Thames", "subject_council": "Kingston upon Thames", "predicted_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.8-brexit", "version": "v1.8", "hash_sha256": "f71a4cd17ea60143a646c6bffd5433e7dac332e83a899e6c37c6cee19405f7d4", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.6 + Brexit 2016 council Leave>=60% Reform-target. n=21 = 17/21 = 81.0%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-8-brexit-2026-05-07-kirklees", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-kirklees", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Kirklees", "subject_council": "Kirklees", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.8-brexit", "version": "v1.8", "hash_sha256": "f71a4cd17ea60143a646c6bffd5433e7dac332e83a899e6c37c6cee19405f7d4", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.6 + Brexit 2016 council Leave>=60% Reform-target. n=21 = 17/21 = 81.0%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-8-brexit-2026-05-07-knowsley", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-knowsley", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Knowsley", "subject_council": "Knowsley", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.8-brexit", "version": "v1.8", "hash_sha256": "f71a4cd17ea60143a646c6bffd5433e7dac332e83a899e6c37c6cee19405f7d4", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.6 + Brexit 2016 council Leave>=60% Reform-target. n=21 = 17/21 = 81.0%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-8-brexit-2026-05-07-leeds", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-leeds", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Leeds", "subject_council": "Leeds", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.8-brexit", "version": "v1.8", "hash_sha256": "f71a4cd17ea60143a646c6bffd5433e7dac332e83a899e6c37c6cee19405f7d4", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.6 + Brexit 2016 council Leave>=60% Reform-target. n=21 = 17/21 = 81.0%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-8-brexit-2026-05-07-manchester", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-manchester", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Manchester", "subject_council": "Manchester", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.8-brexit", "version": "v1.8", "hash_sha256": "f71a4cd17ea60143a646c6bffd5433e7dac332e83a899e6c37c6cee19405f7d4", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.6 + Brexit 2016 council Leave>=60% Reform-target. n=21 = 17/21 = 81.0%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-8-brexit-2026-05-07-merton", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-merton", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Merton", "subject_council": "Merton", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.8-brexit", "version": "v1.8", "hash_sha256": "f71a4cd17ea60143a646c6bffd5433e7dac332e83a899e6c37c6cee19405f7d4", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.6 + Brexit 2016 council Leave>=60% Reform-target. n=21 = 17/21 = 81.0%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm-v17-8-brexit-2026-05-07-newcastle-upon-tyne", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-newcastle-upon-tyne", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Newcastle upon Tyne", "subject_council": "Newcastle upon Tyne", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.8-brexit", "version": "v1.8", "hash_sha256": "f71a4cd17ea60143a646c6bffd5433e7dac332e83a899e6c37c6cee19405f7d4", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.6 + Brexit 2016 council Leave>=60% Reform-target. n=21 = 17/21 = 81.0%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-8-brexit-2026-05-07-oldham", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-oldham", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Oldham", "subject_council": "Oldham", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.8-brexit", "version": "v1.8", "hash_sha256": "f71a4cd17ea60143a646c6bffd5433e7dac332e83a899e6c37c6cee19405f7d4", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.6 + Brexit 2016 council Leave>=60% Reform-target. n=21 = 17/21 = 81.0%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-8-brexit-2026-05-07-richmond-upon-thames", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-richmond-upon-thames", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Richmond upon Thames", "subject_council": "Richmond upon Thames", "predicted_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.8-brexit", "version": "v1.8", "hash_sha256": "f71a4cd17ea60143a646c6bffd5433e7dac332e83a899e6c37c6cee19405f7d4", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.6 + Brexit 2016 council Leave>=60% Reform-target. n=21 = 17/21 = 81.0%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-8-brexit-2026-05-07-rochdale", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-rochdale", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Rochdale", "subject_council": "Rochdale", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.8-brexit", "version": "v1.8", "hash_sha256": "f71a4cd17ea60143a646c6bffd5433e7dac332e83a899e6c37c6cee19405f7d4", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.6 + Brexit 2016 council Leave>=60% Reform-target. n=21 = 17/21 = 81.0%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-8-brexit-2026-05-07-salford", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-salford", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Salford", "subject_council": "Salford", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.8-brexit", "version": "v1.8", "hash_sha256": "f71a4cd17ea60143a646c6bffd5433e7dac332e83a899e6c37c6cee19405f7d4", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.6 + Brexit 2016 council Leave>=60% Reform-target. n=21 = 17/21 = 81.0%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-8-brexit-2026-05-07-sandwell", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-sandwell", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Sandwell", "subject_council": "Sandwell", "predicted_winner": "Reform UK", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.8-brexit", "version": "v1.8", "hash_sha256": "f71a4cd17ea60143a646c6bffd5433e7dac332e83a899e6c37c6cee19405f7d4", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.6 + Brexit 2016 council 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"hit": false }, { "id": "kpm-v17-8-brexit-2026-05-07-sheffield", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-sheffield", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Sheffield", "subject_council": "Sheffield", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.8-brexit", "version": "v1.8", "hash_sha256": "f71a4cd17ea60143a646c6bffd5433e7dac332e83a899e6c37c6cee19405f7d4", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.6 + Brexit 2016 council Leave>=60% Reform-target. n=21 = 17/21 = 81.0%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-8-brexit-2026-05-07-south-cambridgeshire", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-south-cambridgeshire", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "South Cambridgeshire", "subject_council": "South Cambridgeshire", "predicted_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.8-brexit", "version": "v1.8", "hash_sha256": "f71a4cd17ea60143a646c6bffd5433e7dac332e83a899e6c37c6cee19405f7d4", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.6 + Brexit 2016 council Leave>=60% Reform-target. n=21 = 17/21 = 81.0%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-8-brexit-2026-05-07-stockport", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-stockport", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Stockport", "subject_council": "Stockport", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.8-brexit", "version": "v1.8", "hash_sha256": "f71a4cd17ea60143a646c6bffd5433e7dac332e83a899e6c37c6cee19405f7d4", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.6 + Brexit 2016 council Leave>=60% Reform-target. n=21 = 17/21 = 81.0%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm-v17-8-brexit-2026-05-07-sunderland", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-sunderland", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Sunderland", "subject_council": "Sunderland", "predicted_winner": "Reform UK", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.8-brexit", "version": "v1.8", "hash_sha256": "f71a4cd17ea60143a646c6bffd5433e7dac332e83a899e6c37c6cee19405f7d4", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.6 + Brexit 2016 council Leave>=60% Reform-target. n=21 = 17/21 = 81.0%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Reform UK", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-8-brexit-2026-05-07-sutton", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-sutton", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Sutton", "subject_council": "Sutton", "predicted_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.8-brexit", "version": "v1.8", "hash_sha256": "f71a4cd17ea60143a646c6bffd5433e7dac332e83a899e6c37c6cee19405f7d4", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.6 + Brexit 2016 council Leave>=60% Reform-target. n=21 = 17/21 = 81.0%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-8-brexit-2026-05-07-tameside", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-tameside", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Tameside", "subject_council": "Tameside", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.8-brexit", "version": "v1.8", "hash_sha256": "f71a4cd17ea60143a646c6bffd5433e7dac332e83a899e6c37c6cee19405f7d4", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.6 + Brexit 2016 council Leave>=60% Reform-target. n=21 = 17/21 = 81.0%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm-v17-8-brexit-2026-05-07-trafford", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-trafford", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Trafford", "subject_council": "Trafford", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.8-brexit", "version": "v1.8", "hash_sha256": "f71a4cd17ea60143a646c6bffd5433e7dac332e83a899e6c37c6cee19405f7d4", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.6 + Brexit 2016 council Leave>=60% Reform-target. n=21 = 17/21 = 81.0%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-8-brexit-2026-05-07-wakefield", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-wakefield", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Wakefield", "subject_council": "Wakefield", "predicted_winner": "Reform UK", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.8-brexit", "version": "v1.8", "hash_sha256": "f71a4cd17ea60143a646c6bffd5433e7dac332e83a899e6c37c6cee19405f7d4", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.6 + Brexit 2016 council Leave>=60% Reform-target. n=21 = 17/21 = 81.0%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Reform UK", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-8-brexit-2026-05-07-wigan", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-wigan", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Wigan", "subject_council": "Wigan", "predicted_winner": "Reform UK", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.8-brexit", "version": "v1.8", "hash_sha256": "f71a4cd17ea60143a646c6bffd5433e7dac332e83a899e6c37c6cee19405f7d4", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.6 + Brexit 2016 council Leave>=60% Reform-target. n=21 = 17/21 = 81.0%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm-v17-8-brexit-2026-05-07-wolverhampton", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-wolverhampton", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Wolverhampton", "subject_council": "Wolverhampton", "predicted_winner": "Reform UK", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.8-brexit", "version": "v1.8", "hash_sha256": "f71a4cd17ea60143a646c6bffd5433e7dac332e83a899e6c37c6cee19405f7d4", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.6 + Brexit 2016 council Leave>=60% Reform-target. n=21 = 17/21 = 81.0%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm-v17-9-brexit-and-indep-2026-05-07-adur", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-adur", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Adur", "subject_council": "Adur", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.9-brexit-and-indep", "version": "v1.9", "hash_sha256": "0df615a23ef16b2d61f788bb12341ecdd74fd5d3657f096b5d27a66b7ac32ff2", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.8 + v17.7-io combined. n=21 = 17/21 = 81.0%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-9-brexit-and-indep-2026-05-07-barking-and-dagenham", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-barking-and-dagenham", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Barking and Dagenham", "subject_council": "Barking and Dagenham", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.9-brexit-and-indep", "version": "v1.9", "hash_sha256": "0df615a23ef16b2d61f788bb12341ecdd74fd5d3657f096b5d27a66b7ac32ff2", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.8 + v17.7-io combined. n=21 = 17/21 = 81.0%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-9-brexit-and-indep-2026-05-07-barnet", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-barnet", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Barnet", "subject_council": "Barnet", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.9-brexit-and-indep", "version": "v1.9", "hash_sha256": "0df615a23ef16b2d61f788bb12341ecdd74fd5d3657f096b5d27a66b7ac32ff2", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.8 + v17.7-io combined. n=21 = 17/21 = 81.0%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm-v17-9-brexit-and-indep-2026-05-07-barnsley", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-barnsley", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Barnsley", "subject_council": "Barnsley", "predicted_winner": "Reform UK", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.9-brexit-and-indep", "version": "v1.9", "hash_sha256": "0df615a23ef16b2d61f788bb12341ecdd74fd5d3657f096b5d27a66b7ac32ff2", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.8 + v17.7-io combined. n=21 = 17/21 = 81.0%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Reform UK", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-9-brexit-and-indep-2026-05-07-basildon", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-basildon", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Basildon", "subject_council": "Basildon", "predicted_winner": "Conservative", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.9-brexit-and-indep", "version": "v1.9", "hash_sha256": "0df615a23ef16b2d61f788bb12341ecdd74fd5d3657f096b5d27a66b7ac32ff2", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.8 + v17.7-io combined. n=21 = 17/21 = 81.0%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm-v17-9-brexit-and-indep-2026-05-07-birmingham", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-birmingham", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Birmingham", "subject_council": "Birmingham", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.9-brexit-and-indep", "version": "v1.9", "hash_sha256": "0df615a23ef16b2d61f788bb12341ecdd74fd5d3657f096b5d27a66b7ac32ff2", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.8 + v17.7-io combined. n=21 = 17/21 = 81.0%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-9-brexit-and-indep-2026-05-07-bolton", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-bolton", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Bolton", "subject_council": "Bolton", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.9-brexit-and-indep", "version": "v1.9", "hash_sha256": "0df615a23ef16b2d61f788bb12341ecdd74fd5d3657f096b5d27a66b7ac32ff2", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.8 + v17.7-io combined. n=21 = 17/21 = 81.0%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-9-brexit-and-indep-2026-05-07-bradford", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-bradford", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Bradford", "subject_council": "Bradford", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.9-brexit-and-indep", "version": "v1.9", "hash_sha256": "0df615a23ef16b2d61f788bb12341ecdd74fd5d3657f096b5d27a66b7ac32ff2", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.8 + v17.7-io combined. n=21 = 17/21 = 81.0%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-9-brexit-and-indep-2026-05-07-bury", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-bury", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Bury", "subject_council": "Bury", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.9-brexit-and-indep", "version": "v1.9", "hash_sha256": "0df615a23ef16b2d61f788bb12341ecdd74fd5d3657f096b5d27a66b7ac32ff2", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.8 + v17.7-io combined. n=21 = 17/21 = 81.0%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm-v17-9-brexit-and-indep-2026-05-07-calderdale", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-calderdale", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Calderdale", "subject_council": "Calderdale", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.9-brexit-and-indep", "version": "v1.9", "hash_sha256": "0df615a23ef16b2d61f788bb12341ecdd74fd5d3657f096b5d27a66b7ac32ff2", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.8 + v17.7-io combined. n=21 = 17/21 = 81.0%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Reform UK", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm-v17-9-brexit-and-indep-2026-05-07-cheltenham", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-cheltenham", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Cheltenham", "subject_council": "Cheltenham", "predicted_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.9-brexit-and-indep", "version": "v1.9", "hash_sha256": "0df615a23ef16b2d61f788bb12341ecdd74fd5d3657f096b5d27a66b7ac32ff2", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.8 + v17.7-io combined. n=21 = 17/21 = 81.0%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-9-brexit-and-indep-2026-05-07-eastleigh", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-eastleigh", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Eastleigh", "subject_council": "Eastleigh", "predicted_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.9-brexit-and-indep", "version": "v1.9", "hash_sha256": "0df615a23ef16b2d61f788bb12341ecdd74fd5d3657f096b5d27a66b7ac32ff2", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.8 + v17.7-io combined. n=21 = 17/21 = 81.0%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-9-brexit-and-indep-2026-05-07-gateshead", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-gateshead", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Gateshead", "subject_council": "Gateshead", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.9-brexit-and-indep", "version": "v1.9", "hash_sha256": "0df615a23ef16b2d61f788bb12341ecdd74fd5d3657f096b5d27a66b7ac32ff2", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.8 + v17.7-io combined. n=21 = 17/21 = 81.0%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Reform UK", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm-v17-9-brexit-and-indep-2026-05-07-hartlepool", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-hartlepool", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Hartlepool", "subject_council": "Hartlepool", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.9-brexit-and-indep", "version": "v1.9", "hash_sha256": "0df615a23ef16b2d61f788bb12341ecdd74fd5d3657f096b5d27a66b7ac32ff2", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.8 + v17.7-io combined. n=21 = 17/21 = 81.0%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-9-brexit-and-indep-2026-05-07-kingston-upon-thames", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-kingston-upon-thames", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Kingston upon Thames", "subject_council": "Kingston upon Thames", "predicted_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.9-brexit-and-indep", "version": "v1.9", "hash_sha256": "0df615a23ef16b2d61f788bb12341ecdd74fd5d3657f096b5d27a66b7ac32ff2", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.8 + v17.7-io combined. n=21 = 17/21 = 81.0%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-9-brexit-and-indep-2026-05-07-kirklees", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-kirklees", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Kirklees", "subject_council": "Kirklees", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.9-brexit-and-indep", "version": "v1.9", "hash_sha256": "0df615a23ef16b2d61f788bb12341ecdd74fd5d3657f096b5d27a66b7ac32ff2", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.8 + v17.7-io combined. n=21 = 17/21 = 81.0%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-9-brexit-and-indep-2026-05-07-knowsley", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-knowsley", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Knowsley", "subject_council": "Knowsley", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.9-brexit-and-indep", "version": "v1.9", "hash_sha256": "0df615a23ef16b2d61f788bb12341ecdd74fd5d3657f096b5d27a66b7ac32ff2", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.8 + v17.7-io combined. n=21 = 17/21 = 81.0%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-9-brexit-and-indep-2026-05-07-leeds", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-leeds", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Leeds", "subject_council": "Leeds", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.9-brexit-and-indep", "version": "v1.9", "hash_sha256": "0df615a23ef16b2d61f788bb12341ecdd74fd5d3657f096b5d27a66b7ac32ff2", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.8 + v17.7-io combined. n=21 = 17/21 = 81.0%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-9-brexit-and-indep-2026-05-07-manchester", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-manchester", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Manchester", "subject_council": "Manchester", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.9-brexit-and-indep", "version": "v1.9", "hash_sha256": "0df615a23ef16b2d61f788bb12341ecdd74fd5d3657f096b5d27a66b7ac32ff2", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.8 + v17.7-io combined. n=21 = 17/21 = 81.0%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-9-brexit-and-indep-2026-05-07-merton", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-merton", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Merton", "subject_council": "Merton", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.9-brexit-and-indep", "version": "v1.9", "hash_sha256": "0df615a23ef16b2d61f788bb12341ecdd74fd5d3657f096b5d27a66b7ac32ff2", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.8 + v17.7-io combined. n=21 = 17/21 = 81.0%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm-v17-9-brexit-and-indep-2026-05-07-newcastle-upon-tyne", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-newcastle-upon-tyne", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Newcastle upon Tyne", "subject_council": "Newcastle upon Tyne", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.9-brexit-and-indep", "version": "v1.9", "hash_sha256": "0df615a23ef16b2d61f788bb12341ecdd74fd5d3657f096b5d27a66b7ac32ff2", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.8 + v17.7-io combined. n=21 = 17/21 = 81.0%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-9-brexit-and-indep-2026-05-07-oldham", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-oldham", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Oldham", "subject_council": "Oldham", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.9-brexit-and-indep", "version": "v1.9", "hash_sha256": "0df615a23ef16b2d61f788bb12341ecdd74fd5d3657f096b5d27a66b7ac32ff2", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.8 + v17.7-io combined. n=21 = 17/21 = 81.0%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-9-brexit-and-indep-2026-05-07-richmond-upon-thames", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-richmond-upon-thames", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Richmond upon Thames", "subject_council": "Richmond upon Thames", "predicted_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.9-brexit-and-indep", "version": "v1.9", "hash_sha256": "0df615a23ef16b2d61f788bb12341ecdd74fd5d3657f096b5d27a66b7ac32ff2", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.8 + v17.7-io combined. n=21 = 17/21 = 81.0%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-9-brexit-and-indep-2026-05-07-rochdale", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-rochdale", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Rochdale", "subject_council": "Rochdale", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.9-brexit-and-indep", "version": "v1.9", "hash_sha256": "0df615a23ef16b2d61f788bb12341ecdd74fd5d3657f096b5d27a66b7ac32ff2", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.8 + v17.7-io combined. n=21 = 17/21 = 81.0%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-9-brexit-and-indep-2026-05-07-salford", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-salford", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Salford", "subject_council": "Salford", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.9-brexit-and-indep", "version": "v1.9", "hash_sha256": "0df615a23ef16b2d61f788bb12341ecdd74fd5d3657f096b5d27a66b7ac32ff2", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.8 + v17.7-io combined. n=21 = 17/21 = 81.0%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-9-brexit-and-indep-2026-05-07-sandwell", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-sandwell", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Sandwell", "subject_council": "Sandwell", "predicted_winner": "Reform UK", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.9-brexit-and-indep", "version": "v1.9", "hash_sha256": "0df615a23ef16b2d61f788bb12341ecdd74fd5d3657f096b5d27a66b7ac32ff2", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.8 + v17.7-io combined. n=21 = 17/21 = 81.0%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Reform UK", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-9-brexit-and-indep-2026-05-07-sefton", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-sefton", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Sefton", "subject_council": "Sefton", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.9-brexit-and-indep", "version": "v1.9", "hash_sha256": "0df615a23ef16b2d61f788bb12341ecdd74fd5d3657f096b5d27a66b7ac32ff2", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.8 + v17.7-io combined. n=21 = 17/21 = 81.0%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm-v17-9-brexit-and-indep-2026-05-07-sheffield", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-sheffield", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Sheffield", "subject_council": "Sheffield", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.9-brexit-and-indep", "version": "v1.9", "hash_sha256": "0df615a23ef16b2d61f788bb12341ecdd74fd5d3657f096b5d27a66b7ac32ff2", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.8 + v17.7-io combined. n=21 = 17/21 = 81.0%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-9-brexit-and-indep-2026-05-07-south-cambridgeshire", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-south-cambridgeshire", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "South Cambridgeshire", "subject_council": "South Cambridgeshire", "predicted_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.9-brexit-and-indep", "version": "v1.9", "hash_sha256": "0df615a23ef16b2d61f788bb12341ecdd74fd5d3657f096b5d27a66b7ac32ff2", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.8 + v17.7-io combined. n=21 = 17/21 = 81.0%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-9-brexit-and-indep-2026-05-07-stockport", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-stockport", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Stockport", "subject_council": "Stockport", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.9-brexit-and-indep", "version": "v1.9", "hash_sha256": "0df615a23ef16b2d61f788bb12341ecdd74fd5d3657f096b5d27a66b7ac32ff2", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.8 + v17.7-io combined. n=21 = 17/21 = 81.0%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm-v17-9-brexit-and-indep-2026-05-07-sunderland", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-sunderland", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Sunderland", "subject_council": "Sunderland", "predicted_winner": "Reform UK", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.9-brexit-and-indep", "version": "v1.9", "hash_sha256": "0df615a23ef16b2d61f788bb12341ecdd74fd5d3657f096b5d27a66b7ac32ff2", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.8 + v17.7-io combined. n=21 = 17/21 = 81.0%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Reform UK", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-9-brexit-and-indep-2026-05-07-sutton", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-sutton", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Sutton", "subject_council": "Sutton", "predicted_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.9-brexit-and-indep", "version": "v1.9", "hash_sha256": "0df615a23ef16b2d61f788bb12341ecdd74fd5d3657f096b5d27a66b7ac32ff2", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.8 + v17.7-io combined. n=21 = 17/21 = 81.0%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-9-brexit-and-indep-2026-05-07-tameside", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-tameside", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Tameside", "subject_council": "Tameside", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.9-brexit-and-indep", "version": "v1.9", "hash_sha256": "0df615a23ef16b2d61f788bb12341ecdd74fd5d3657f096b5d27a66b7ac32ff2", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.8 + v17.7-io combined. n=21 = 17/21 = 81.0%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm-v17-9-brexit-and-indep-2026-05-07-trafford", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-trafford", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Trafford", "subject_council": "Trafford", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.9-brexit-and-indep", "version": "v1.9", "hash_sha256": "0df615a23ef16b2d61f788bb12341ecdd74fd5d3657f096b5d27a66b7ac32ff2", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.8 + v17.7-io combined. n=21 = 17/21 = 81.0%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-9-brexit-and-indep-2026-05-07-wakefield", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-wakefield", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Wakefield", "subject_council": "Wakefield", "predicted_winner": "Reform UK", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.9-brexit-and-indep", "version": "v1.9", "hash_sha256": "0df615a23ef16b2d61f788bb12341ecdd74fd5d3657f096b5d27a66b7ac32ff2", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.8 + v17.7-io combined. n=21 = 17/21 = 81.0%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Reform UK", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-9-brexit-and-indep-2026-05-07-wigan", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-wigan", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Wigan", "subject_council": "Wigan", "predicted_winner": "Reform UK", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.9-brexit-and-indep", "version": "v1.9", "hash_sha256": "0df615a23ef16b2d61f788bb12341ecdd74fd5d3657f096b5d27a66b7ac32ff2", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.8 + v17.7-io combined. n=21 = 17/21 = 81.0%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm-v17-9-brexit-and-indep-2026-05-07-wolverhampton", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-wolverhampton", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Wolverhampton", "subject_council": "Wolverhampton", "predicted_winner": "Reform UK", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.9-brexit-and-indep", "version": "v1.9", "hash_sha256": "0df615a23ef16b2d61f788bb12341ecdd74fd5d3657f096b5d27a66b7ac32ff2", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": false, "rationale": "v17.8 + v17.7-io combined. n=21 = 17/21 = 81.0%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm-v17-10-ensemble-2026-05-07-adur", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-adur", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Adur", "subject_council": "Adur", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.10-ensemble", "version": "v1.10", "hash_sha256": "2ea86b8d1e25ee68ebf66c6f59496e2480a43dba2a81ff17012ce0094531f018", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": true, "rationale": "PRODUCTION ENSEMBLE: v17.9 when confident OR Reform-emerging fires; v15.1 fallback otherwise. n=37 = 28/37 = 75.7%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm-v17-10-ensemble-2026-05-07-barking-and-dagenham", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-barking-and-dagenham", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Barking and Dagenham", "subject_council": "Barking and Dagenham", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.10-ensemble", "version": "v1.10", "hash_sha256": "2ea86b8d1e25ee68ebf66c6f59496e2480a43dba2a81ff17012ce0094531f018", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": true, "rationale": "PRODUCTION ENSEMBLE: v17.9 when confident OR Reform-emerging fires; v15.1 fallback otherwise. n=37 = 28/37 = 75.7%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-10-ensemble-2026-05-07-barnet", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-barnet", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Barnet", "subject_council": "Barnet", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.10-ensemble", "version": "v1.10", "hash_sha256": "2ea86b8d1e25ee68ebf66c6f59496e2480a43dba2a81ff17012ce0094531f018", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": true, "rationale": "PRODUCTION ENSEMBLE: v17.9 when confident OR Reform-emerging fires; v15.1 fallback otherwise. n=37 = 28/37 = 75.7%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-10-ensemble-2026-05-07-barnsley", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-barnsley", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Barnsley", "subject_council": "Barnsley", "predicted_winner": "Reform UK", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.10-ensemble", "version": "v1.10", "hash_sha256": "2ea86b8d1e25ee68ebf66c6f59496e2480a43dba2a81ff17012ce0094531f018", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": true, "rationale": "PRODUCTION ENSEMBLE: v17.9 when confident OR Reform-emerging fires; v15.1 fallback otherwise. n=37 = 28/37 = 75.7%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Reform UK", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-10-ensemble-2026-05-07-basildon", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-basildon", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Basildon", "subject_council": "Basildon", "predicted_winner": "Conservative", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.10-ensemble", "version": "v1.10", "hash_sha256": "2ea86b8d1e25ee68ebf66c6f59496e2480a43dba2a81ff17012ce0094531f018", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": true, "rationale": "PRODUCTION ENSEMBLE: v17.9 when confident OR Reform-emerging fires; v15.1 fallback otherwise. n=37 = 28/37 = 75.7%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm-v17-10-ensemble-2026-05-07-birmingham", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-birmingham", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Birmingham", "subject_council": "Birmingham", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.10-ensemble", "version": "v1.10", "hash_sha256": "2ea86b8d1e25ee68ebf66c6f59496e2480a43dba2a81ff17012ce0094531f018", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": true, "rationale": "PRODUCTION ENSEMBLE: v17.9 when confident OR Reform-emerging fires; v15.1 fallback otherwise. n=37 = 28/37 = 75.7%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-10-ensemble-2026-05-07-bolton", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-bolton", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Bolton", "subject_council": "Bolton", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.10-ensemble", "version": "v1.10", "hash_sha256": "2ea86b8d1e25ee68ebf66c6f59496e2480a43dba2a81ff17012ce0094531f018", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": true, "rationale": "PRODUCTION ENSEMBLE: v17.9 when confident OR Reform-emerging fires; v15.1 fallback otherwise. n=37 = 28/37 = 75.7%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-10-ensemble-2026-05-07-bradford", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-bradford", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Bradford", "subject_council": "Bradford", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.10-ensemble", "version": "v1.10", "hash_sha256": "2ea86b8d1e25ee68ebf66c6f59496e2480a43dba2a81ff17012ce0094531f018", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": true, "rationale": "PRODUCTION ENSEMBLE: v17.9 when confident OR Reform-emerging fires; v15.1 fallback otherwise. n=37 = 28/37 = 75.7%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-10-ensemble-2026-05-07-bury", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-bury", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Bury", "subject_council": "Bury", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.10-ensemble", "version": "v1.10", "hash_sha256": "2ea86b8d1e25ee68ebf66c6f59496e2480a43dba2a81ff17012ce0094531f018", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": true, "rationale": "PRODUCTION ENSEMBLE: v17.9 when confident OR Reform-emerging fires; v15.1 fallback otherwise. n=37 = 28/37 = 75.7%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-10-ensemble-2026-05-07-calderdale", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-calderdale", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Calderdale", "subject_council": "Calderdale", "predicted_winner": "Reform UK", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.10-ensemble", "version": "v1.10", "hash_sha256": "2ea86b8d1e25ee68ebf66c6f59496e2480a43dba2a81ff17012ce0094531f018", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": true, "rationale": "PRODUCTION ENSEMBLE: v17.9 when confident OR Reform-emerging fires; v15.1 fallback otherwise. n=37 = 28/37 = 75.7%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Reform UK", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-10-ensemble-2026-05-07-cheltenham", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-cheltenham", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Cheltenham", "subject_council": "Cheltenham", "predicted_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.10-ensemble", "version": "v1.10", "hash_sha256": "2ea86b8d1e25ee68ebf66c6f59496e2480a43dba2a81ff17012ce0094531f018", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": true, "rationale": "PRODUCTION ENSEMBLE: v17.9 when confident OR Reform-emerging fires; v15.1 fallback otherwise. n=37 = 28/37 = 75.7%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-10-ensemble-2026-05-07-eastleigh", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-eastleigh", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Eastleigh", "subject_council": "Eastleigh", "predicted_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.10-ensemble", "version": "v1.10", "hash_sha256": "2ea86b8d1e25ee68ebf66c6f59496e2480a43dba2a81ff17012ce0094531f018", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": true, "rationale": "PRODUCTION ENSEMBLE: v17.9 when confident OR Reform-emerging fires; v15.1 fallback otherwise. n=37 = 28/37 = 75.7%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-10-ensemble-2026-05-07-gateshead", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-gateshead", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Gateshead", "subject_council": "Gateshead", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.10-ensemble", "version": "v1.10", "hash_sha256": "2ea86b8d1e25ee68ebf66c6f59496e2480a43dba2a81ff17012ce0094531f018", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": true, "rationale": "PRODUCTION ENSEMBLE: v17.9 when confident OR Reform-emerging fires; v15.1 fallback otherwise. n=37 = 28/37 = 75.7%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Reform UK", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm-v17-10-ensemble-2026-05-07-hartlepool", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-hartlepool", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Hartlepool", "subject_council": "Hartlepool", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.10-ensemble", "version": "v1.10", "hash_sha256": "2ea86b8d1e25ee68ebf66c6f59496e2480a43dba2a81ff17012ce0094531f018", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": true, "rationale": "PRODUCTION ENSEMBLE: v17.9 when confident OR Reform-emerging fires; v15.1 fallback otherwise. n=37 = 28/37 = 75.7%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-10-ensemble-2026-05-07-kingston-upon-thames", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-kingston-upon-thames", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Kingston upon Thames", "subject_council": "Kingston upon Thames", "predicted_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.10-ensemble", "version": "v1.10", "hash_sha256": "2ea86b8d1e25ee68ebf66c6f59496e2480a43dba2a81ff17012ce0094531f018", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": true, "rationale": "PRODUCTION ENSEMBLE: v17.9 when confident OR Reform-emerging fires; v15.1 fallback otherwise. n=37 = 28/37 = 75.7%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-10-ensemble-2026-05-07-kirklees", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-kirklees", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Kirklees", "subject_council": "Kirklees", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.10-ensemble", "version": "v1.10", "hash_sha256": "2ea86b8d1e25ee68ebf66c6f59496e2480a43dba2a81ff17012ce0094531f018", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": true, "rationale": "PRODUCTION ENSEMBLE: v17.9 when confident OR Reform-emerging fires; v15.1 fallback otherwise. n=37 = 28/37 = 75.7%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-10-ensemble-2026-05-07-knowsley", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-knowsley", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Knowsley", "subject_council": "Knowsley", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.10-ensemble", "version": "v1.10", "hash_sha256": "2ea86b8d1e25ee68ebf66c6f59496e2480a43dba2a81ff17012ce0094531f018", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": true, "rationale": "PRODUCTION ENSEMBLE: v17.9 when confident OR Reform-emerging fires; v15.1 fallback otherwise. n=37 = 28/37 = 75.7%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-10-ensemble-2026-05-07-leeds", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-leeds", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Leeds", "subject_council": "Leeds", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.10-ensemble", "version": "v1.10", "hash_sha256": "2ea86b8d1e25ee68ebf66c6f59496e2480a43dba2a81ff17012ce0094531f018", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": true, "rationale": "PRODUCTION ENSEMBLE: v17.9 when confident OR Reform-emerging fires; v15.1 fallback otherwise. n=37 = 28/37 = 75.7%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-10-ensemble-2026-05-07-manchester", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-manchester", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Manchester", "subject_council": "Manchester", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.10-ensemble", "version": "v1.10", "hash_sha256": "2ea86b8d1e25ee68ebf66c6f59496e2480a43dba2a81ff17012ce0094531f018", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": true, "rationale": "PRODUCTION ENSEMBLE: v17.9 when confident OR Reform-emerging fires; v15.1 fallback otherwise. n=37 = 28/37 = 75.7%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-10-ensemble-2026-05-07-merton", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-merton", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Merton", "subject_council": "Merton", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.10-ensemble", "version": "v1.10", "hash_sha256": "2ea86b8d1e25ee68ebf66c6f59496e2480a43dba2a81ff17012ce0094531f018", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": true, "rationale": "PRODUCTION ENSEMBLE: v17.9 when confident OR Reform-emerging fires; v15.1 fallback otherwise. n=37 = 28/37 = 75.7%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm-v17-10-ensemble-2026-05-07-newcastle-upon-tyne", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-newcastle-upon-tyne", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Newcastle upon Tyne", "subject_council": "Newcastle upon Tyne", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.10-ensemble", "version": "v1.10", "hash_sha256": "2ea86b8d1e25ee68ebf66c6f59496e2480a43dba2a81ff17012ce0094531f018", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": true, "rationale": "PRODUCTION ENSEMBLE: v17.9 when confident OR Reform-emerging fires; v15.1 fallback otherwise. n=37 = 28/37 = 75.7%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-10-ensemble-2026-05-07-oldham", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-oldham", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Oldham", "subject_council": "Oldham", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.10-ensemble", "version": "v1.10", "hash_sha256": "2ea86b8d1e25ee68ebf66c6f59496e2480a43dba2a81ff17012ce0094531f018", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": true, "rationale": "PRODUCTION ENSEMBLE: v17.9 when confident OR Reform-emerging fires; v15.1 fallback otherwise. n=37 = 28/37 = 75.7%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm-v17-10-ensemble-2026-05-07-richmond-upon-thames", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-richmond-upon-thames", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Richmond upon Thames", "subject_council": "Richmond upon Thames", "predicted_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.10-ensemble", "version": "v1.10", "hash_sha256": "2ea86b8d1e25ee68ebf66c6f59496e2480a43dba2a81ff17012ce0094531f018", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": true, "rationale": "PRODUCTION ENSEMBLE: v17.9 when confident OR Reform-emerging fires; v15.1 fallback otherwise. n=37 = 28/37 = 75.7%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-10-ensemble-2026-05-07-rochdale", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-rochdale", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Rochdale", "subject_council": "Rochdale", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.10-ensemble", "version": "v1.10", "hash_sha256": "2ea86b8d1e25ee68ebf66c6f59496e2480a43dba2a81ff17012ce0094531f018", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": true, "rationale": "PRODUCTION ENSEMBLE: v17.9 when confident OR Reform-emerging fires; v15.1 fallback otherwise. n=37 = 28/37 = 75.7%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-10-ensemble-2026-05-07-salford", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-salford", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Salford", "subject_council": "Salford", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.10-ensemble", "version": "v1.10", "hash_sha256": "2ea86b8d1e25ee68ebf66c6f59496e2480a43dba2a81ff17012ce0094531f018", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": true, "rationale": "PRODUCTION ENSEMBLE: v17.9 when confident OR Reform-emerging fires; v15.1 fallback otherwise. n=37 = 28/37 = 75.7%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-10-ensemble-2026-05-07-sandwell", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-sandwell", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Sandwell", "subject_council": "Sandwell", "predicted_winner": "Reform UK", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.10-ensemble", "version": "v1.10", "hash_sha256": "2ea86b8d1e25ee68ebf66c6f59496e2480a43dba2a81ff17012ce0094531f018", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": true, "rationale": "PRODUCTION ENSEMBLE: v17.9 when confident OR Reform-emerging fires; v15.1 fallback otherwise. n=37 = 28/37 = 75.7%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Reform UK", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-10-ensemble-2026-05-07-sefton", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-sefton", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Sefton", "subject_council": "Sefton", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.10-ensemble", "version": "v1.10", "hash_sha256": "2ea86b8d1e25ee68ebf66c6f59496e2480a43dba2a81ff17012ce0094531f018", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": true, "rationale": "PRODUCTION ENSEMBLE: v17.9 when confident OR Reform-emerging fires; v15.1 fallback otherwise. n=37 = 28/37 = 75.7%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm-v17-10-ensemble-2026-05-07-sheffield", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-sheffield", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Sheffield", "subject_council": "Sheffield", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.10-ensemble", "version": "v1.10", "hash_sha256": "2ea86b8d1e25ee68ebf66c6f59496e2480a43dba2a81ff17012ce0094531f018", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": true, "rationale": "PRODUCTION ENSEMBLE: v17.9 when confident OR Reform-emerging fires; v15.1 fallback otherwise. n=37 = 28/37 = 75.7%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-10-ensemble-2026-05-07-south-cambridgeshire", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-south-cambridgeshire", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "South Cambridgeshire", "subject_council": "South Cambridgeshire", "predicted_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.10-ensemble", "version": "v1.10", "hash_sha256": "2ea86b8d1e25ee68ebf66c6f59496e2480a43dba2a81ff17012ce0094531f018", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": true, "rationale": "PRODUCTION ENSEMBLE: v17.9 when confident OR Reform-emerging fires; v15.1 fallback otherwise. n=37 = 28/37 = 75.7%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-10-ensemble-2026-05-07-stockport", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-stockport", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Stockport", "subject_council": "Stockport", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.10-ensemble", "version": "v1.10", "hash_sha256": "2ea86b8d1e25ee68ebf66c6f59496e2480a43dba2a81ff17012ce0094531f018", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": true, "rationale": "PRODUCTION ENSEMBLE: v17.9 when confident OR Reform-emerging fires; v15.1 fallback otherwise. n=37 = 28/37 = 75.7%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm-v17-10-ensemble-2026-05-07-sunderland", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-sunderland", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Sunderland", "subject_council": "Sunderland", "predicted_winner": "Reform UK", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.10-ensemble", "version": "v1.10", "hash_sha256": "2ea86b8d1e25ee68ebf66c6f59496e2480a43dba2a81ff17012ce0094531f018", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": true, "rationale": "PRODUCTION ENSEMBLE: v17.9 when confident OR Reform-emerging fires; v15.1 fallback otherwise. n=37 = 28/37 = 75.7%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Reform UK", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-10-ensemble-2026-05-07-sutton", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-sutton", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Sutton", "subject_council": "Sutton", "predicted_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.10-ensemble", "version": "v1.10", "hash_sha256": "2ea86b8d1e25ee68ebf66c6f59496e2480a43dba2a81ff17012ce0094531f018", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": true, "rationale": "PRODUCTION ENSEMBLE: v17.9 when confident OR Reform-emerging fires; v15.1 fallback otherwise. n=37 = 28/37 = 75.7%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Liberal Democrat", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-10-ensemble-2026-05-07-tameside", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-tameside", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Tameside", "subject_council": "Tameside", "predicted_winner": "No overall control", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.10-ensemble", "version": "v1.10", "hash_sha256": "2ea86b8d1e25ee68ebf66c6f59496e2480a43dba2a81ff17012ce0094531f018", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": true, "rationale": "PRODUCTION ENSEMBLE: v17.9 when confident OR Reform-emerging fires; v15.1 fallback otherwise. n=37 = 28/37 = 75.7%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-10-ensemble-2026-05-07-trafford", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-trafford", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Trafford", "subject_council": "Trafford", "predicted_winner": "Labour", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.10-ensemble", "version": "v1.10", "hash_sha256": "2ea86b8d1e25ee68ebf66c6f59496e2480a43dba2a81ff17012ce0094531f018", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": true, "rationale": "PRODUCTION ENSEMBLE: v17.9 when confident OR Reform-emerging fires; v15.1 fallback otherwise. n=37 = 28/37 = 75.7%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-10-ensemble-2026-05-07-wakefield", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-wakefield", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Wakefield", "subject_council": "Wakefield", "predicted_winner": "Reform UK", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.10-ensemble", "version": "v1.10", "hash_sha256": "2ea86b8d1e25ee68ebf66c6f59496e2480a43dba2a81ff17012ce0094531f018", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": true, "rationale": "PRODUCTION ENSEMBLE: v17.9 when confident OR Reform-emerging fires; v15.1 fallback otherwise. n=37 = 28/37 = 75.7%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Reform UK", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": true }, { "id": "kpm-v17-10-ensemble-2026-05-07-wigan", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-wigan", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Wigan", "subject_council": "Wigan", "predicted_winner": "Reform UK", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.10-ensemble", "version": "v1.10", "hash_sha256": "2ea86b8d1e25ee68ebf66c6f59496e2480a43dba2a81ff17012ce0094531f018", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": true, "rationale": "PRODUCTION ENSEMBLE: v17.9 when confident OR Reform-emerging fires; v15.1 fallback otherwise. n=37 = 28/37 = 75.7%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "Labour", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": false }, { "id": "kpm-v17-10-ensemble-2026-05-07-wolverhampton", "kind": "uk_council_election", "election_id": "england-locals-2026-05-07-wolverhampton", "election_date": "2026-05-07", "subject": "Wolverhampton", "subject_council": "Wolverhampton", "predicted_winner": "Reform UK", "predicted_at": "2026-05-11T12:44:09Z", "methodology": { "name": "KPM-v17.10-ensemble", "version": "v1.10", "hash_sha256": "2ea86b8d1e25ee68ebf66c6f59496e2480a43dba2a81ff17012ce0094531f018", "is_retrospective_backtest": true, "is_production": true, "rationale": "PRODUCTION ENSEMBLE: v17.9 when confident OR Reform-emerging fires; v15.1 fallback otherwise. n=37 = 28/37 = 75.7%.", "data_source": "Democracy Club JSON API ward priors + ONS Census 2021 NOMIS bulk + Hanretty Brexit 2016" }, "actual_winner": "No overall control", "actual_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00Z", "hit": false } ], "meta": { "n_total": 272, "methodologies": { "KPM-1 v1.0": { "hash": "a27277bc5500bb11580475766cfca895d22d4ea906b4d97a5ea873b02031abac", "commit": "f4ee209770bcd3fcd7fa09ad724717b82102e668", "pre_registered": true, "description": "LLM-panel synthetic personas + DYNAMICS-8 + tactical voting + seat MC." }, "KPM-2.2 v15.1": { "hash": "52df676e792c29c6c893382a5c390c9b9790663e6e7e0a9c7edb1a54ac6c0741", "commit": "74ff0e5a91e13e9bcb111583beb1a70d268a1bbd", "pre_registered": false, "description": "Rule-based fragmentation override on KPM-1 vote shares. NW Lab retain + LD-incumbent retain + historical NOC prior + Reform metro sweep + LD strong-leader retain + fragmentation NOC.", "note": "Applied as backtest to May 7 2026. Future predictions from v15.1 will be pre-registered." } }, "elections_covered": [ "2026-05-07-english-locals" ], "public_repo": "https://github.com/Kronaxis/kpm (TBD - to be published Week 3)" } }