Kronaxis Bloghttps://kronaxis.co.uk/blog/2026-05-11T17:46:39ZKronaxisOn the BBC's own metric, KPM-1 was the most accurate model in the UK polling fieldhttps://kronaxis.co.uk/blog/election-postmortem-may8-20262026-05-08T00:00:00Z2026-05-11T00:00:00ZKPM-1 vs the BBC's Projected National Share — beaten on council control, most accurate on national vote share.Stop Paying Frontier Prices for Tasks a Local Model Handles Finehttps://kronaxis.co.uk/blog/llm-routing-cost-savings2026-03-24T00:00:00Z2026-05-10T00:00:00ZSmall open-weight LLMs now handle 80% of production workloads identically to frontier APIs. Kronaxis Router auto-classifies prompts and routes to the cheapest capable model, cutting inference costs by 90%.Election watch-list: 20 councils to watch on 7 May 2026https://kronaxis.co.uk/blog/election-watchlist-may7-20262026-05-06T00:00:00Z2026-05-06T00:00:00ZThe 10 lean calls + 10 tightest toss-ups from KPM-1's pre-registered 7 May 2026 council predictions.The first pre-registered prediction set for an English local electionhttps://kronaxis.co.uk/blog/election-results-may7-20262026-05-01T00:00:00Z2026-05-05T00:00:00Z136 councils. 65,000 synthetic UK voters. SHA-256 hash on GitHub before voting opened. Validated against 103 benchmarks.How We Project the 2026 Local Elections: Every Step Explainedhttps://kronaxis.co.uk/blog/election-projections-20262026-04-22T00:00:00Z2026-04-22T00:00:00ZKPM-1 uses 65,000 synthetic personas to project 136 English council election outcomes. No polls, no phone calls. Here is exactly how it works, step by step.136-Council Election Projections: The Full Resultshttps://kronaxis.co.uk/blog/election-results-v2-april-20262026-04-22T00:00:00Z2026-04-22T00:00:00ZReform UK goes from 0 councils to 67. Labour goes from 92 to 16. The full V2 projections for all 136 English councils contesting the 7 May 2026 local elections, pre-registered and hash-verified.Explore Every Council and Ward: Interactive Election Results Browserhttps://kronaxis.co.uk/blog/interactive-election-results2026-03-24T00:00:00Z2026-04-22T00:00:00ZDrill down from national to region to council to ward. Search any council. Share any result with a unique URL. Party-coloured bar charts, sortable ward tables, confidence ratings.Panel Studio: Run a 1,000 Person Focus Group in Five Minuteshttps://kronaxis.co.uk/blog/panel-studio-synthetic-panels2026-03-24T00:00:00Z2026-04-22T00:00:00ZTraditional research takes weeks and costs thousands. Panel Studio builds synthetic consumer panels from personality science, runs multi-turn conversations, and delivers reasoning traces you can audit. Self-hosted, open source.Predicting the 7 May Elections: How 65,000 Synthetic Voters Are Calling Ithttps://kronaxis.co.uk/blog/predicting-may-7-elections2026-04-01T00:00:00Z2026-04-22T00:00:00ZReform UK is about to lead the vote share in English local elections by a wide margin. That is the headline prediction from our synthetic persona panel.12,224 Voters Told Us Why They're Switching. Here's What They Said.https://kronaxis.co.uk/blog/election-results-v3-april-20262026-04-14T00:00:00Z2026-04-14T00:00:00ZV3 local election projections for all 159 English councils with full causal reasoning traces.Predicting UK Council By-Elections Using Synthetic Persona Panels: A DYNAMICS-8 Approachhttps://kronaxis.co.uk/blog/election-prediction-paper2026-04-01T00:00:00Z2026-04-05T00:00:00ZWe present a method for predicting UK council by-election outcomes using synthetic persona panels driven by the DYNAMICS-8 personality model. Each persona isOpen Source Personality Models: Why We Published DYNAMICS-8 Under CC BY 4.0https://kronaxis.co.uk/blog/why-we-open-sourced2026-03-24T00:00:00Z2026-04-05T00:00:00ZThe conventional wisdom in enterprise software is straightforward: keep your methodology proprietary, charge for access, and defend the moat. Qualtrics does this. Evidenza does this. Every major surveCan Synthetic Personas Predict Elections? We Tested Against Real By-Electionshttps://kronaxis.co.uk/blog/election-prediction-by-elections2026-03-24T00:00:00Z2026-04-02T00:00:00ZWe built synthetic persona panels to help businesses understand how consumers think. Then we asked: can the same technology predict how people vote? Not in aConsumer Behaviour Prediction: How Personality Science Beats Demographicshttps://kronaxis.co.uk/blog/behaviour-prediction2026-03-24T00:00:00Z2026-03-25T00:00:00ZDemographics explain roughly 10 to 15 percent of the variance in consumer purchase behaviour. This is not a controversial claim. It is the consistent finding across decades of marketing science researConjoint Analysis Without Participants: How Synthetic Panels Change Pricing Researchhttps://kronaxis.co.uk/blog/conjoint-without-participants2026-03-24T00:00:00Z2026-03-25T00:00:00ZConjoint analysis has been the gold standard for pricing research since the 1970s. The method is elegant: present participants with combinations of product features and prices, ask them to choose, theTesting Across 20 Countries in One Afternoon: Cross Cultural Consumer Researchhttps://kronaxis.co.uk/blog/cross-cultural-research2026-03-24T00:00:00Z2026-03-25T00:00:00ZA European FMCG company wants to test a new subscription pricing model across five markets: UK, Germany, France, Netherlands, and Sweden. The traditional route looks like this. Hire a local research aThe Death of the Average Consumer: Why Demographic Segmentation Is Not Enoughhttps://kronaxis.co.uk/blog/death-of-average-consumer2026-03-24T00:00:00Z2026-03-25T00:00:00ZEvery marketing brief starts the same way. "Our target audience is women aged 25 to 34, ABC1, living in urban areas." The media planner nods. The creative team nods. The research agency builds a recruBuilding Personality Conditioned AI Agents: A Technical Walkthroughhttps://kronaxis.co.uk/blog/personality-conditioned-agents2026-03-24T00:00:00Z2026-03-25T00:00:00ZAsk a large language model to roleplay as a "cautious, detail oriented financial analyst" and it will produce something that sounds cautious for about three turns. Then it drifts. The caution becomesWhat 8 Personality Dimensions Tell You About Your Pricing Pagehttps://kronaxis.co.uk/blog/pricing-page-personality2026-03-25T00:00:00Z2026-03-25T00:00:00ZEvery SaaS pricing page looks the same. Three tiers, sometimes four. A feature comparison table with ticks and crosses. A "most popular" badge on the middle tier. An annual discount toggle. Maybe a FAValidating Your Product Before You Build: Synthetic Consumer Panels for Startupshttps://kronaxis.co.uk/blog/startup-validation2026-03-24T00:00:00Z2026-03-25T00:00:00ZThe lean startup methodology has a structural flaw that nobody talks about. Build, measure, learn. It sounds elegant. But the first word is "build", and building costs time, money, and the emotional bHow We Generate Census Weighted Synthetic Populations for 20 Countrieshttps://kronaxis.co.uk/blog/synthetic-populations2026-03-24T00:00:00Z2026-03-25T00:00:00ZMost synthetic persona generators work like this: pick a name from a list, assign a random age, bolt on a personality type from a dropdown, and call it a persona. The result looks plausible at a glancWhat Is a Synthetic Consumer Panel? The Complete Guidehttps://kronaxis.co.uk/blog/what-is-synthetic-panel2026-03-24T00:00:00Z2026-03-25T00:00:00ZA synthetic consumer panel is a group of AI generated consumer personas, each with a unique personality profile, demographics, and life history, that can respond to research stimuli as if they were reThe £40,000 Question: When Do You Still Need a Real Focus Group?https://kronaxis.co.uk/blog/when-still-need-focus-group2026-03-25T00:00:00Z2026-03-25T00:00:00ZI built Panel Studio to replace a specific category of research: the expensive, slow, small sample screening phase that sits at the beginning of most research programmes. I did not build it to replaceWhy Focus Groups Lie: The Gap Between What People Say and What They Dohttps://kronaxis.co.uk/blog/why-focus-groups-lie2026-03-24T00:00:00Z2026-03-25T00:00:00ZFocus groups capture what people say, not what they do. The stated vs revealed preference gap is structural. Synthetic panels sidestep groupthink, social desirability bias, and post-hoc rationalisation by design.DYNAMICS-8 vs Big Five: Why We Built a New Personality Frameworkhttps://kronaxis.co.uk/blog/dynamics8-vs-big-five2026-03-24T00:00:00Z2026-03-24T00:00:00ZBig Five was designed for clinical psychology, not commercial behaviour prediction. DYNAMICS-8 keeps validated science and adds two dimensions built for the digital age: Acuity and Impulsivity.Running Your First Panel: A Practical Guidehttps://kronaxis.co.uk/blog/first-panel-guide2026-03-24T00:00:00Z2026-03-24T00:00:00ZFrom zero to a working consumer behaviour panel in ten minutes. Install the SDK, create a census weighted panel, run a stimulus, read responses, and export the data.How We Built a Consumer Behaviour Engine: The Kronaxis Storyhttps://kronaxis.co.uk/blog/kronaxis-story2026-03-24T00:00:00Z2026-03-24T00:00:00ZSix years ago we set out to understand how consumers actually behave in competitive digital markets. The solution turned out to be a general purpose engine for predicting human decisions.Personality Driven Pricing: What the Data Showshttps://kronaxis.co.uk/blog/personality-driven-pricing2026-03-24T00:00:00Z2026-03-24T00:00:00ZPricing experiments across 2,400 synthetic personas reveal which DYNAMICS-8 personality dimensions predict price sensitivity, scarcity response, and social proof engagement.The Economics of Reasoning Traces as Training Datahttps://kronaxis.co.uk/blog/reasoning-traces-economics2026-03-24T00:00:00Z2026-03-24T00:00:00ZThe synthetic data market is splitting into two tiers: commodity survey responses and premium reasoning traces with causal attribution. The price differential is an order of magnitude.How Synthetic Panels Predicted the UK Retail Shifthttps://kronaxis.co.uk/blog/uk-retail-prediction2026-03-24T00:00:00Z2026-03-24T00:00:00ZA UK grocery retailer ran Panel Studio alongside traditional focus groups. Same winning design. Deeper explanation. Four hundred times the speed. Four hundred times cheaper.